Softs Report 10/07/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher last week in range trading as continued stressful weather was seen in the south but export demand was less. There are still ideas and reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. However, Chinese demand could start to improve as the government there is injecting a lot of money into the economy in an effort to get the country moving again China was on holiday last week but is back to work this week. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. The Delta has had somewhat better growing conditions but overall the entire crop has seen some stress.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 71.50, 70.20, and 69.30 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.70 and 79.40 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 281,200
: Positions :
: 23,290 56,717 77,813 78,260 118,284 85,672 15,458 265,035 268,272: 16,165 12,928
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,585) :
: -2,016 -5,523 4,026 1,991 8,477 58 -2,125 4,059 4,855: 526 -270
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 20.2 27.7 27.8 42.1 30.5 5.5 94.3 95.4: 5.7 4.6
: Total Traders: 295 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 85 96 66 62 47 21 246 214:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower in quiet trading last week as a new tropical system is forming in the Atlantic but is not forecast to hit Florida. Yet another system could be forming in the Gulf of Mexico but it needs to develop. Significant rains are likely for parts of the Florida peninsula this week from the Gulf storm no matter how it develops. Growing conditions appear to be generally good for now. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil has been hot and dry. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 453.00, 438.00, and 432.00 November, with resistance at a 481.00, 487.00, and 506.00 November

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 1, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,027 :
: Positions :
: 1,961 7,262 667 0 340 3,490 170 22 839 528 3,359 :
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 :
: 625 -60 -99 0 120 -460 -100 -58 -132 6 200 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 55.7 5.1 0.0 2.6 26.8 1.3 0.2 6.4 4.1 25.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 11 8 . 0 . 18 . . 9 9 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week as rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas. There are now forecasts for some rains starting early this week in Brazil after very dry conditions until now. It appears that the rainy season is finally underway, but losses are still possible in Brazil and also Vietnam from previous bad weather. Relief was felt as the EU moved to delay implementation of its deforestation regulations for third world countries and is likely to succeed. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. It is still dry there.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 248.00, 242.00, and 236.00 December, and resistance is at 260.00, 268.00 and 278.00 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4880, 4750, and 4670 November, with resistance at 5100, 5280, and 5410 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 261,005
: Positions :
: 53,022 12,298 70,525 61,624 160,870 65,626 12,008 250,796 255,701: 10,209 5,304
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 (Change in open interest: -621) :
: -1,496 -572 5 386 519 408 -493 -696 -540: 74 -81
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.3 4.7 27.0 23.6 61.6 25.1 4.6 96.1 98.0: 3.9 2.0
: Total Traders: 390 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 129 68 112 98 125 52 21 323 287:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher last week on strength in world petroleum prices based on the current problems in the Middle East. A cold front is expected in southern Brazil this week that could spread north and bring much needed rains to Sugar areas. Dry conditions seen generally in Brazil continued to support both markets overall. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 2210, 2100, and 2020 March and resistance is at 2370, 2400, and 2460 March. Trends in London are down. Support is at 564.00, 552.00, and 541.00 December, with resistance at 590.00, 593.00, and 602.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 985,088
: Positions :
: 131,935 86,624 230,033 324,904 592,918 222,690 26,673 909,562 936,247: 75,527 48,842
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 (Change in open interest: -6,904) :
: 28,876 15,497 13,895 -43,769 -28,234 -2,077 -2,054 -3,076 -897: -3,828 -6,007
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.4 8.8 23.4 33.0 60.2 22.6 2.7 92.3 95.0: 7.7 5.0
: Total Traders: 240 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 34 73 68 75 43 18 214 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower last week and both markets are still acting heavy as the harvest of the next crop is about to start. Relief was felt as the EU moved to delay implementation of its deforestation regulations for third world countries. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. Sources told wire services that the rains seen last week were beneficial for crop development. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 6820, 6600, and 6350 December, with resistance at 7470, 7570, and 7710 December. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 4870, 4800, and 4740 December, with resistance at 5360, 5450, and 5730 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 200,652
: Positions :
: 30,133 10,688 73,853 55,580 100,225 30,391 10,941 189,958 195,707: 10,695 4,946
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,153) :
: 903 -864 749 652 2,753 -764 -1,400 1,540 1,238: -386 -85
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.0 5.3 36.8 27.7 49.9 15.1 5.5 94.7 97.5: 5.3 2.5
: Total Traders: 182 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 40 63 41 36 31 13 166 125:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322