About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher last week despite some late week profit taking from speculators as the dry weather outlook continues for Russia. The export sales report showed moderate sales. At least two Wheat producing regions have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain. World prices were higher amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher as production estimates remain lower and two regions have now declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up. Support is at 583, 576, and 564 December, with resistance at 617, 658, and 677 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 591, 579, and 571 December, with resistance at 623, 633, and 672 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up. Support is at 624, 611, and 573 December, and resistance is at 653, 693, and 704 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 456,782
: Positions :
: 50,807 111,659 135,262 88,143 114,052 148,712 56,732 422,925 417,706: 33,858 39,076
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 (Change in open interest: 33,902) :
: -1,856 -5,897 23,516 4,668 9,641 7,776 5,863 34,105 33,123: -203 778
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 24.4 29.6 19.3 25.0 32.6 12.4 92.6 91.4: 7.4 8.6
: Total Traders: 374 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 102 126 92 103 47 29 301 296:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 256,541
: Positions :
: 37,823 57,884 51,132 57,814 88,113 89,149 35,452 235,918 232,582: 20,623 23,960
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,138) :
: 1,356 -4,161 969 238 2,982 2,333 1,497 4,897 1,287: -758 2,852
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 22.6 19.9 22.5 34.3 34.8 13.8 92.0 90.7: 8.0 9.3
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 49 55 77 81 39 20 199 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 1, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 75,060 :
: Positions :
: 34,852 25,316 3,128 248 174 10,755 24,509 7,402 2,464 2,576 3,948 :
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 :
: 278 1,176 -33 -105 -26 2,260 350 -1,091 -264 638 106 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.4 33.7 4.2 0.3 0.2 14.3 32.7 9.9 3.3 3.4 5.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 112 :
: 50 36 6 . 4 8 21 10 9 6 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed little changed despite news of lower Asian prices after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice. Brazil prices have been strong and well above US prices. Another hurricane is forming in the Atlantic but it is appears likely to miss the US. Yet another system is trying to form in the Gulf of Mexico that could present a threat to whatever remains unharvested in the Delta and Mid South. It is forecast to move into Florida for now. There was concern to damage to unharvested crops in the region from the hurricane that het a couple of weeks ago. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1503, 1489, and 1479 November and resistance is at 1530, 1540, and 1557 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 1, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,946 :
: Positions :
: 5,335 6,730 64 0 0 447 1,242 3 1,832 47 816 :
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 :
: -112 -91 -125 0 0 -320 9 2 296 -38 40 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.6 67.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 12.5 0.0 18.4 0.5 8.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 62 :
: 24 18 . 0 0 . 8 . 17 . 9 :

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher as buying continued even with active harvest conditions in the midwest. The weekly export sales report was strong. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week. Ideas are that the production data seen last month will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Yield reports heard so far show strong production potential for the national crop. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 155,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 418, 415, and 409 December, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 458 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 373, 357, and 349 December, and resistance is at 395, 404, and 410 December

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,902,877
: Positions :
: 137,798 234,963 615,674 534,175 665,528 436,167 148,115 1,723,815 1,664,281: 179,062 238,596
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 (Change in open interest: 70,406) :
: -18,694 -52,862 41,966 25,513 80,790 21,698 -6,081 70,482 63,812: -76 6,594
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.2 12.3 32.4 28.1 35.0 22.9 7.8 90.6 87.5: 9.4 12.5
: Total Traders: 788 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 138 148 193 333 350 52 31 637 627:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 1, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,136 :
: Positions :
: 670 2,321 257 250 47 642 199 0 583 204 152 :
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 :
: 17 204 -20 0 12 108 0 0 -14 15 32 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 56.1 6.2 6.0 1.1 15.5 4.8 0.0 14.1 4.9 3.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 23 :
: 8 7 . . . 4 . 0 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower last week as China was closed for the week due to a holiday and the port strike in the US interrupting shipments from the East Coast and Gulf Coast. China is back zto work zthis week and the port strike was settled on Thursday afternoon. The weekly export sales report was strong. Soybean Oil closed lower. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small beans in the pods. Dry weather will last all week. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina. There are some forecasts for showers to return to central and northern areas starting this week.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 172,500 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 1031, 1018, and 1002 November, and resistance is at 1055, 1070, and 1082 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 329.00, 322.00, and 316.00 December, and resistance is at 339.00, 351.00, and 355.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4310, 4190, and 4140 December, with resistance at 4530, 4560, and 4670 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,136,492
: Positions :
: 66,572 129,493 356,384 442,647 458,543 216,176 103,000 1,081,779 1,047,420: 54,713 89,072
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 (Change in open interest: 37,921) :
: 13,420 -12,568 22,107 -2,049 23,920 1,409 -4,482 34,887 28,977: 3,034 8,944
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.9 11.4 31.4 38.9 40.3 19.0 9.1 95.2 92.2: 4.8 7.8
: Total Traders: 609 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 181 186 218 245 52 27 488 518:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 581,129
: Positions :
: 83,754 88,734 127,713 176,184 302,273 162,418 37,076 550,069 555,797: 31,060 25,332
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 (Change in open interest: -6,143) :
: 3,421 -20,768 544 -13,927 18,879 4,376 -3,651 -5,586 -4,996: -557 -1,147
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 15.3 22.0 30.3 52.0 27.9 6.4 94.7 95.6: 5.3 4.4
: Total Traders: 324 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 67 95 98 93 45 27 268 240:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 01, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 604,338
: Positions :
: 118,977 53,191 140,935 145,105 355,015 142,584 28,284 547,602 577,426: 56,736 26,913
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 (Change in open interest: 29,612) :
: 28,748 -11,356 12,215 -18,319 31,800 3,328 -2,117 25,971 30,541: 3,641 -929
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.7 8.8 23.3 24.0 58.7 23.6 4.7 90.6 95.5: 9.4 4.5
: Total Traders: 343 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 62 102 112 121 44 26 292 269:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week and closed at new contract highs for the active December month. It closed higher today on geopolitical concerns about the Middle East. The production could be reduced by flooding that can keep workers from the fields. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil and China is now back from a holiday week to help demand ideas hold together. Canola was higher last week and continues to pull away from the early harvest lows set several week ago in part on a weaker Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar and in part on reports of somewhat less production. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 612.00, s606.00, and 596.00 November, with resistance at 638.00, 648.00, and 664.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4200, 4040, and 3990 December, with resistance at 4380, 44a40, and 4500 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 1, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 34,297 :
: Positions :
: 25,907 11,680 240 12,282 580 870 210 140 495 3,560 5,825 :
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 :
: -4,327 -2,280 -240 -350 -80 30 -385 -280 130 -1,142 -50 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 75.5 34.1 0.7 35.8 1.7 2.5 0.6 0.4 1.4 10.4 17.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 37 :
: 11 10 . 6 . . . . . 11 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 1, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 290,346 :
: Positions :
: 234,860 100,267 2,800 12,143 1,534 4,200 120,265 19,989 8,603 16,819 15,996 :
: Changes from: September 24, 2024 :
: -9,199 7,232 -76 -1,600 156 -1,845 -17,092 529 1,354 2,076 -2,191 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 80.9 34.5 1.0 4.2 0.5 1.4 41.4 6.9 3.0 5.8 5.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 368 :
: 66 79 4 6 6 13 82 24 57 99 68 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1080.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1072.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1062.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1025.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 990.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1085.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1077.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1067.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1030.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 995.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1100.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 920.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,430.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 355.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.281)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322