Grains Report 10/01/2024

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Wheat And Oats Production
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
2024 U.S. Wheat Production (million bushels)
Actual Average
USDA Forecast Range USDA August
All Wheat 1,971 1,984 1,960-2,020 1,982
Winter Wheat 1,349 1,361 1,340-1,382 1,361
Hard Red Winter 770 776 760-796 776
Soft Red Winter 342 342 337-345 342
White Winter 236 243 240-245 243
Other Spring 542 544 536-559 544
Durum 80 77 75-80 77
Oats 67 57

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2024 (million bushels)
Monday’s Average USDA
Estimate Forecast Range June 2024
Corn 1,760 1,853 1,754-2,017 4,997
Soybeans 342 354 323-443 970
Wheat 1,986 1,984 1,794-2,090 696

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 30
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Sep 30, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U. S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 26, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/26/2024 09/19/2024 09/28/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 122 4,798 643
CORN 1,140,079 1,150,305 670,124 3,330,810 2,693,273
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 192 0
MIXED 0 0 24 0 24
OATS 0 0 100 148 3,694
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 180,101 78,970 61,618 330,370 247,079
SOYBEANS 675,749 498,586 677,786 1,921,933 1,989,468
SUNFLOWER 0 0 695 0 2,205
WHEAT 536,929 722,608 428,774 8,234,645 6,092,462
Total 2,532,858 2,450,469 1,839,243 13,822,896 11,028,848
————————————————————————
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct 02, 2024 11 Jul 08, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher yesterday on the less than expected Wheat production estimates from USDA. The Winter Wheat estimates for Hard Red and Soft White production were especially down. World prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. USDA will update production later today in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 576, 564, and 561 December, with resistance at 599, 604, and 617 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 559, 539, and 527 December, with resistance at 591, 604, and 617 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 602, 595, and 580 December, and resistance is at 627, 638, and 646 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher after trading lower early in the day. It appears that producers were not rally offering into the market and the funds became buyers after support held on the daily charts. A hurricane came late in the week in the southern US and hit rice areas in the northern Delta with a lot of wind and rain. There was concern to damage to unharvested crops in the region. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1479, and 1468 November and resistance is at 1557, 1562, and 1575 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher, with Corn higher due largely to the USDA quarterly stocks report that showed less than expected stocks in all positions. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is under way. Yield reports heard so far show strong but not spectacular production potential for the national crop. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer to hurt kernel fill and ear weights.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 195,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 415, 409, and 401 December, and resistance is at 433, 441, and 458 September. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 380, 374, and 357 December, and resistance is at 404, 410, and 416 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday after a sharp rally on Friday that appeared to be led by fund short covering tied to positioning for the end of the month and quarter. The USDA reports for Soybeans were about as expected by the trade and offered no reason to add to longs. Soybean Oil closed higher. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small beans in the pods although there have been spotty showers more recently. Dry weather is expected to return this week. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina. There are some forecasts for showers to return to central and northern areas in a couple of weeks. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but the country will be on holiday this week so no new demand is expected.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Spoybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 1031, 1018, and 1002 November, and resistance is at 1087, 1097, and 1114 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 333.00, 329.00, and 324.00 December, and resistance is at 348.00, 355.00, and 361.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4190, 4140, and 4070 December, with resistance at 4480, 4520, and 4690 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on Friday, but higher for the week on ideas of better demand from India and reduced production potential as the monsoon rains arrive. Futures were lower today on long liquidation and currency concerns. The production could be reduced by flooding that can keep workers from the fields. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil. Canola was closed yesterday. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 588.00, 572.00, and 565.00 November, with resistance at 619.00, 622.00, and 648.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 3950, 3920, and 3860 December, with resistance at 4080, 4200, and 4260 December.

DJ Malaysia Sept. 1-30 Palm Oil Exports Rose 1.0% on Month, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Sept. 1-30 period are estimated up 1.0% on month at 1,390,806 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Sept. 1-30 Aug. 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 313,487 382,230
RBD Palm Oil 235,853 222,565
RBD Palm Stearin 103,568 87,861
Crude Palm Oil 286,830 293,640
Total* 1,390,806 1,376,412
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1055.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1030.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1020.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 982.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 952.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1060.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1035.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1025.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 987.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 957.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1060.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 895.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,200.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 344.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.166)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322