AgMaster Report 10/01/2024

DEC CORN

Dec Corn continues to defy seasonal tendencies – as it has rallied over 40 cents since it bottomed in late August! Lately, substantial tailwinds have surfaced including Monday’s Quarterly Stocks Report which reflected corn stocks well under expectations! As well, we’ve had 3 flash sales of corn & beans yesterday & today! And it continues to be dry in N Brazil! Recent macro events from the Fed (lowering IR’s .5% last week) is beneficial to all commodities – enhancing domestic demand & also improving exports as the lower IR’s push the US Dollar lower – which makes our prices even lower globally! Finally, harvest is currently 21% done – with 50% predicted by next week – at which point hedge pressure begins to mitigate!

 

NOV BEANS

After a bullish infusion from the 11am Qtly Stocks Report, Nov Beans faltered under the weight of improving South American weather & the Dockworkers Strike! As well, the contract has rallied $1.10 (960-1070) since it cratered in late August & is slightly overbought! China is enjoying its GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAY this week which has tempered exports! However, 10am inspections Mon were firm at 675,000 MT & we’ve had 2 flash sales of beans the last 2 mornings! Beans are 26% harvested (avg – 18) & should be half done by next week!

 

DEC WHT

Dec Wht is bumping up against 3-month highs at $6.00 – supported by a host of friendly fundamentals – global dryness in S Russia, Argentina & E Ukraine, local dryness in the S Plains, cumulative export inspections 35% over 2023 & an escalating war in the Mideast! Also, spillover support from Dec Corn’s upsurge is lending support!

 

DEC CAT

Dec Cat continues to surge higher in a contra-seasonal move – aided by the Feds mitigating efforts last week – lowering the IR’s by .5%! That has provided an influx of demand that was partially lost when the “grilling season” ended after Labor Day W/E! In addition, foreign appetite for our meat has been enhanced by a lower US dollar – as a result of lower interest rates! Even today with the longshoremen on strike, Dec Cat has punched out new highs!

 

DEC HOGS

Normally, a longshoreman’s strike would be bearish to Dec Hogs & Pork Exports but today’s sharp rally flies in the face of that conventional wisdom! And really can only be explained by the ratcheting up of pork demand in the wake of the Fed’s decision last week to lower IR’s for the 1^st time in 4 years! Post Labor Day is normally a time when hog futures languish as the grill-demand wanes but not this season in the wake of the Fed’s aggressive moves on IR’s last week!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337