Grains Report 08/28/2024

DJ Statistics Canada Crop Production Report – Aug 28
WINNIPEG – Canada 2024-25 grain/oilseed survey-based production
estimates. Source: Statistics Canada. Production in thousand metric tons,
yield in kg/hectare, area harvested in thousand hectares.
Harvested Avg Production
area yield 2024-25 2023-24
AUG DEC
barley 2,316.2 3,225 7,468.7 8,905.4
edible beans N/A N/A N/A 339.3
canaryseed 115.1 1,406 161.9 112.2
canola 8,825.0 2,210 19,501.7 19,191.7
chickpeas 189.1 1,747 330.4 159.1
corn 1,440.0 10,576 15,228.9 15,420.9
faba beans .6 3,634 2.2 107.1
flaxseed 195.8 1,533 300.1 272.7
lentils 1,677.4 1,654 2,774.4 1,801.1
mixed grains 60.6 2,485 150.6 152.9
mustard 237.4 805 191.0 170.7
oats 946.6 3,075 2,910.5 2,643.1
dry peas 1,268.4 2,371 3,008.0 2,608.8
fall rye* 117.5 3,241 380.9 357.8
soybeans 2,306.7 3,100 7,149.7 6,980.5
sugar beets N/A N/A N/A 1,172.4
sunflower seed 17.6 2,084 36.7 92.5
triticale N/A N/A N/A 43.9
all wheat 10,532.1 3,264 34,373.3 32,946.2
durum wheat 2,501.5 2,407 6,021.5 4,087.5
spring wheat 7,496.1 3,382 25,351.1 25,520.4
winter wheat* 534.5 5,614 3,000.6 3,338.4
*Fall rye and winter wheat numbers represent what was remaining
after winterkill.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets on stable overseas prices reported in Russia and Europe and the wrap up of the Wheat harvest and reports of reduced cash movement here in the US. Crop condition ratings were lower for the Spring Wheat traded in Minneapolis. US harvest progress and ideas of good crops went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 496, 490, and 484 September, with resistance at 524, 536, and 548 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 525, 512, and 506 September, with resistance at 559, 567, and 579 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 538, 532, and 526 September, and resistance is at 584, 601, and 613 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday with September leading the way on what appeared to be speculator buying before First Notice Day. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as a result as the harvest moves forward. However, planted area has increased from last year
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1508, 1504, and 1494 September and resistance is at 1544, 1566, and 1571 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher as hot and dry weather is reported in the Midwest. The heat is passing but dry weather is still in the forecast. The Pro Farmer crop tour concluded last week and found good Corn crops, with production estimated at 14.979 billion bushels. Most in the trade had expected production in excess of 15 billion bushels. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest for the next week or longer.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 165,735 tons and Colombia bought 100,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 361, 358, and 355 September, and resistance is at 374, 378, and 4385 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 321, 313, and 308 September, and resistance is at 336, 348, and 358 September

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on speculative short covering generated by a stronger demand news and First Notice Day coming on Friday. There is also concern about the hot and dry weather seen in the Midwest early this week that could hurt pod fill. The weather is turning cooler now but it should remain dry. Pro Farmer estimated US Soybeans production at 4.740 billion bushels. This would be a new record production. This week should be dry and warmer this week amid dry weather and western and Delta areas should stay warm and dry. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: China bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 939, 928, and 916 September, and resistance is at 973, 1007, and 1018 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 302.00, 300.00, and 297.00 September, and resistance is at 323.00, 325.00, and 329.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3970, 3860, and 3800 September, with resistance at 4220, 4260, and 4360 September.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday in consolidation trading and despite ideas of improving demand as Indonesia intends to increase its use of Palm Oil in its biofuels blends and increase biofuels to 40% of consumption. It could become 50% if the new president gets his way. Futures were lower today on currency considerations. Production reports indicate that the increase in production is less than expected at this time. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher and trends have turned up on ideas of reduced supplies even with the harvest starting soon. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 590.00, 581.00, and 575.00 November, with resistance at 607.00, 617.00, and 629.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Supp with no objectives. Support is at 3900, 3850, and 3820 November, with resistance at 3990, 4020, and 4090 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 965.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 940.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 927.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 917.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 970.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 945.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 932.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 922.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 995.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 860.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 4,040.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 350.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.31)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 132,476 lots, or 5.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,441 4,450 4,392 4,405 4,441 4,435 -6 3,197 5,633
Nov-24 4,366 4,374 4,331 4,351 4,355 4,352 -3 12,200 22,778
Jan-25 4,300 4,328 4,284 4,296 4,282 4,308 26 109,371 142,276
Mar-25 4,218 4,249 4,204 4,216 4,200 4,231 31 3,293 14,694
May-25 4,250 4,269 4,224 4,233 4,217 4,256 39 2,779 8,371
Jul-25 4,203 4,221 4,178 4,184 4,165 4,212 47 1,636 2,939
Corn
Turnover: 688,456 lots, or 16.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,345 2,350 2,336 2,343 2,338 2,344 6 22,312 47,901
Nov-24 2,345 2,357 2,338 2,343 2,345 2,348 3 455,102 639,217
Jan-25 2,320 2,327 2,304 2,311 2,317 2,316 -1 159,700 412,636
Mar-25 2,311 2,316 2,294 2,300 2,307 2,306 -1 27,577 131,640
May-25 2,345 2,351 2,332 2,334 2,341 2,343 2 15,115 47,949
Jul-25 2,346 2,353 2,335 2,338 2,343 2,344 1 8,650 20,941
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,050,797 lots, or 6.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,964 3,004 2,964 2,981 2,940 2,985 45 77,009 108,316
Nov-24 2,993 3,034 2,993 3,011 2,974 3,015 41 113,747 460,256
Dec-24 2,997 3,041 2,997 3,018 2,975 3,020 45 9,238 89,754
Jan-25 2,985 3,032 2,984 3,002 2,962 3,008 46 1,500,377 1,544,870
Mar-25 2,908 2,946 2,908 2,922 2,891 2,928 37 10,380 95,603
May-25 2,831 2,867 2,829 2,841 2,814 2,847 33 322,916 991,996
Jul-25 2,845 2,881 2,845 2,855 2,830 2,863 33 13,759 97,383
Aug-25 2,951 2,986 2,951 2,967 2,935 2,967 32 3,371 32,907
Palm Oil
Turnover: 815,723 lots, or 65.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 8,130 8,138 8,042 8,110 8,138 8,106 -32 8,904 10,466
Oct-24 8,124 8,128 8,024 8,092 8,126 8,088 -38 8,742 15,902
Nov-24 8,106 8,110 8,010 8,080 8,106 8,066 -40 1,933 6,379
Dec-24 8,084 8,084 7,992 8,052 8,082 8,044 -38 175 616
Jan-25 8,048 8,058 7,952 8,014 8,054 8,018 -36 730,724 582,980
Feb-25 8,032 8,032 7,934 7,978 8,032 8,002 -30 94 414
Mar-25 8,018 8,022 7,918 7,968 8,014 7,984 -30 239 3,211
Apr-25 7,986 7,998 7,894 7,928 7,986 7,950 -36 114 264
May-25 7,946 7,970 7,836 7,882 7,948 7,914 -34 64,705 101,547
Jun-25 7,902 7,926 7,824 7,832 7,902 7,880 -22 53 85
Jul-25 7,880 7,880 7,778 7,786 7,880 7,840 -40 29 75
Aug-25 7,824 7,824 7,704 7,720 7,822 7,772 -50 11 13
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 513,573 lots, or 39.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,580 7,626 7,568 7,602 7,560 7,600 40 9,878 15,901
Nov-24 7,632 7,666 7,606 7,638 7,618 7,640 22 7,908 24,344
Dec-24 7,666 7,694 7,632 7,672 7,636 7,666 30 592 3,356
Jan-25 7,632 7,678 7,610 7,652 7,608 7,648 40 443,576 640,783
Mar-25 7,574 7,614 7,558 7,586 7,548 7,592 44 155 4,317
May-25 7,450 7,494 7,430 7,466 7,426 7,466 40 51,320 174,640
Jul-25 7,370 7,406 7,358 7,390 7,382 7,388 6 122 630
Aug-25 7,338 7,404 7,338 7,382 7,336 7,366 30 22 40
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322