Bill Moore
William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
AgMaster Report 08/28/2024
NOV BEAN
The Pro Farmer Tour revealed lower #’s than reported by the USDA on 8-12-24! Production – 4.740 BB (USGA – 4.589) & Yield – 54.9 BPA (USGA – 53.2)! Yet the mkt was unable to take out its lows & in fact made new 2-week highs today! The Gd-Ex crop ratings dropped 1% to 67% & the recent spell of very/hot dry weather seems to have topped out the final crop size! The mkt has been under liquidation pressure this week as 1st notice day is Friday 8/30 when longs have to exit to avoid delivery! Much of the record crop has been baked into the price already – as it stands at a 4 year low! And US Beans are the cheapest on the global mkt – And that plus a plummeting US Dollar have made our exports flow very freely! The lows appear to be in the process of being carved out right now!
DEC CORN
The recently concluded Pro-Farmer Tour produced friendly results with all their corn #’s under the USDA – Production – 14.979 BB (15.147) & Yield – 181.1 BPA (183.1)! However, the mkt has been pressured since as wheat has slumped & the upcoming 1st Notice Day on Friday has forced general liquidation of Sept Longs! Today, another flash sale of corn to Mexico was solid reminder of the increased export demand for corn on the world mkt! Not only is US Corn the best deal around but its price has become even more attractive due to the falling dollar! Mon’s Gd-Ex crop ratings dropped 2% to 65%! Non US-Production has dropped due to drought in the EU & Black Sea – plus Argentina & Brazil are planting less acres! Finally, the macro environment favors the upside with 2 interest rate cuts likely before year-end which will keep the US dollar sliding! And Domestic ethanol demand has been quite strong all year! Today, the mkt is 6 cents higher as it anticipates a solid up-tic in export & domestic demand!
DEC WHT
Dec wht jumped on the bandwagon today – riding the upside coattails of corn & beans who reacted to the very hot/dry weather which could shave bushels off the final yields! As well, the Spring Wht Gd-Ex % had an unexpected drop – and with the winter wheat in, harvest pressure is off the mkt! Finally, at 4-year lows, Wht has solid export potential at current levels!
DEC CAT
Continuing its upside reversal from Monday when Dec Cat staged an impressive rally after opening lower off a bearish Cattle-on-Feed Report last Friday, the contract added another $2.00 to its rally – stretching it to $6.00! While demand is expected to wane after Labor Day as the “grilling season” winds down, there’s still enough demand around to sustain Dec Cat surges especially from its oversold position coming into this week!
DEC HOGS
Dec Hogs resumed its impressive rally today tacking on another $1.00 – extending the 3-wk up to $9.00 (63.50-71.50)! The hog mkt has clearly taken over the “upside leadership” of the meat complex! The Cold Storage Report last Friday reflected lower stocks than 2023 & also the wide price disparity between pork & beef in your local grocery store has underpinned Dec Hogs on breaks!
Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337