Softs Report 08/26/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week and started to break out higher from the recent trading range on the weekly charts. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. It looks like futures are cheap enough for now but speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions as there have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Hot weather is likely for the Delta this week. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 68.80, 67.40, and 66.30 December, with resistance of 70.80, 73.00 and 73.70 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 268,110
: Positions :
: 30,298 89,515 64,103 80,232 79,449 78,561 19,930 253,194 252,997: 14,916 15,112
: Changes from: August 13, 2024 (Change in open interest: -3,476) :
: -2,237 610 -1,020 1,782 -3,073 -1,332 1,061 -2,807 -2,422: -668 -1,054
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 33.4 23.9 29.9 29.6 29.3 7.4 94.4 94.4: 5.6 5.6
: Total Traders: 310 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 106 91 64 61 44 20 237 231:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher last week on apparent speculative buying and commercial short covering as ideas of reduced production continue against reports of stronger demand as forecasts call for no tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Futures closed at new contract highs. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week as the current tropical system should stay in the ocean and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 491.00, 467.00, and 463.00 September, with resistance at 518.00, 524.00, and 530.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,108 :
: Positions :
: 1,276 6,760 792 0 36 3,162 462 6 1,196 541 2,265 :
: Changes from: August 13, 2024 :
: -393 -85 45 0 -162 535 -9 -34 213 37 -1,036 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 60.9 7.1 0.0 0.3 28.5 4.2 0.1 10.8 4.9 20.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 8 7 4 0 . 17 4 . 11 9 9 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher but in a trading range and London closed higher and at new contract highs on Friday with offers from Vietnam still hard to find but offers from Brazil and Indonesia in the market. Indonesian offers are now less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season and lower production is now expected for the next crop. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes but offers have been strong so far this season. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 243.49 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 245.00, 237.00, and 230.00 September, and resistance is at 255.00, 261.00 and 264.00 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4960, 4860, and 4670 September, with resistance at 5160, 5220, and 5280 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 233,817 :
: Positions :
: 50,624 99,440 28,737 47,624 7,309 66,541 9,073 26,522 11,960 5,265 33,500 :
: :
: Changes from: August 13, 2024 :
: -8,837 -4,109 -549 660 -912 5,810 326 3,157 909 660 4,082 :
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.7 42.5 12.3 20.4 3.1 28.5 3.9 11.3 5.1 2.3 14.3 :
: :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 374 :
: 78 99 16 20 19 104 22 59 52 48 50 :
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again Friday and higher last week on short covering after demand concerns pushed futures to test recent lows. Chinese demand in particular is in focus amid the economic problems seen there. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are turning drier in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are strong but should start falling but not enough to impact prices much. CONAB said production estimates for this year should be increased, but total production should still be less than last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1780, 1750, and 1720 October and resistance is at 1840, 1890, and 1930 October. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 517.00, 511.00, and 501.00 October, with resistance at 533.00, 544.00, and 555.00 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 974,043 :
: Positions :
: 345,454 357,301 110,319 84,160 65,667 106,978 133,992 123,040 51,795 34,055 105,245 :
: Changes from: August 13, 2024 :
: 12,871 -5,847 3,157 -3,307 -3,012 -4,402 13,926 -977 1,107 3,013 982 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 35.5 36.7 11.3 8.6 6.7 11.0 13.8 12.6 5.3 3.5 10.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 251 :
: 65 58 16 9 18 41 57 63 34 22 33 :
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COCOA
General Comments: New York closed a little higher last week and London closed a little lower in consolidation trading on tight supply conditions and reports of good crop conditions for the next crop at least in Ivory Coast. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on improved weather as there are currently good rains in Ivory Coast although cool temperatures are also reported. Ghana has had hot and dry conditions and there are reports that pods are being aborted. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 9350, 8970, and 8360 September, with resistance at 10310, 10860, and 11110 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6120, 5880, and 5820 September, with resistance at 6880, 7080, and 7320 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 185,389 :
: Positions :
: 43,908 67,739 7,467 11,045 8,368 39,350 13,066 28,819 4,766 9,887 40,858 :
: Changes from: August 13, 2024 :
: -6,874 -6,703 -132 454 601 1,523 848 696 209 951 1,162 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.7 36.5 4.0 6.0 4.5 21.2 7.0 15.5 2.6 5.3 22.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 169 :
: 32 30 11 6 13 55 16 36 15 26 33 :
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322