Weekly Ag Markets Update – 08/26/2024

Wheat: Wheat was lower in all three markets last week on stable to weaker overseas prices reported in Russia and Europe and the wrap up of the Wheat harvest and reports of cash movement here in the US.  US harvest progress and ideas of good crops went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates.  There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain.  Eastern Europe is also hot and dry.  Western Europe has seen too much rain.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn:  Corn closed a little lower last week and Oats closed higher on what appeared to be speculative selling in Corn.  The Pro Farmer crop tour has concluded and found good Corn crops, with production estimated at 14.979 billion bushels.  Most in the trade had expected production in excess of 1a5 billion bushels as had USDA so some upside movement is possible in prices early this week.  Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.  Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and the products were higher last week on speculative short covering generated by a stronger demand news.  Pro Farmer estimated US Soybeans production at 4.74a0 billion bushels.  This would be a new record production.  This week should be dry and warmer this week amid dry weather and western and Delta areas should stay warm and dry.  Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US.  Domestic demand has been strong in the US.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice closed higher last week on what appeared to be speculator buying as the harvest moves along to completion.  The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year.  Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as a result as the harvest moves forward.  However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil was higher last week on ideas of improving demand as Indonesia intends to increase its use of Palm Oil in its biofuels blends and increase biofuels to 40% of consumption.  Production reports indicate that the increase in production is less than expected at this time.  Indian imports of Palm Oil were the highest for the year in July.  Exports are 834,948 tons so far this month.  Reports indicate that production is rising as well.  Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days.  There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts.  Canola was higher and showed signs of forming a bottom on the daily charts on ideas of increasing producer offers as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down.  The Canadian rail strike makes movement of grain much more difficult and a lot will get backed up in the system, but the government there is forcing binding arbitration on labor and management.  The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton was higher last week and started to break out higher from the recent trading range on the weekly charts.  There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.  It looks like futures are cheap enough for now but speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions as there have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough.   The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect.  Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season.  Hot weather is likely for the Delta this week.  Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ closed sharply higher last week on apparent speculative buying and commercial short covering as ideas of reduced production continue against reports of stronger demand as forecasts call for no tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic.  Futures closed at new contract highs.  Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week as the current tropical system should stay in the ocean and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida.  A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms.  The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida.  The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York closed higher but in a trading range and London closed higher and at new contract highs on Friday with offers from Vietnam still hard to find but offers from Brazil and Indonesia in the market.  Indonesian offers are now less as producers wait for higher prices before selling.  The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season and lower production is now expected for the next crop.  There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes but offers have been strong so far this season.  Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York and London closed higher again Friday and higher last week on short covering after demand concerns pushed futures to test recent lows.  Chinese demand in particular is in focus amid the economic problems seen there.  Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are turning drier in Brazil.  Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.  They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed.  Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere.  Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are strong but should start falling but not enough to impact prices much.  CONAB said production estimates for this year should be increased, but total production should still be less than last year.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  New York closed a little higher last week and London closed a little lower in consolidation trading on tight supply conditions and reports of good crop conditions for the next crop at least in Ivory Coast.  Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures.  Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on improved weather as there are currently good rains in Ivory Coast although cool temperatures are also reported.  Ghana has had hot and dry conditions and there are reports that pods are being aborted.  The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322