About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday in response to a stronger US Dollar and Chicago grains and oilseeds and also Crude Oil futures in New York. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. It looks like futures are cheap enough for now but speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions as there have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 65.20, 64.60, and 63.40 December, with resistance of 70.80, 73.00 and 73.70 December.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Setting Bolls 84 74 78 81
Cotton Bolls Opening 19 13 17 17
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 8 18 32 35 7
Cotton Last Week 9 16 29 39 7
Cotton Last Year 22 24 21 27 6

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower on forecasts for no tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week as the current tropical system should stay in the ocean and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 415.00, 410.00, and 393.00 September, with resistance at 467.00, 471.00, and 479.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on a weaker US Dollar and with offers from Vietnam still hard to find but offers from Brazil and Indonesia in the market. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes but offers have been strong so far this season. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 233.61 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 230.00, 228.00, and 225.00 September, and resistance is at 252.00, 255.00 and 261.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4320, 4190, and 4070 September, with resistance at 4740, 4800, and 4860 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed mostly a little higher and London closed a little lower yesterday. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are turning drier in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are falling but not enough to impact prices much.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 October and resistance is at 1890, 1910, and 1950 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 504.00, 498.00, and 492.00 October, with resistance at 533.00, 538.00, and 544.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher in consolidation trading last week as tight supply conditions and reports of good crop conditions for the next crop. Some support came from a weaker US Dollar. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 8000, 7690, and 7340 September, with resistance at 9540, 9800, and 10310 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6250, 5880, and 5820 September, with resistance at 6880, 7080, and 7320 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322