
Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 08/20/2024
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 19
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Aug 19, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 15, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/15/2024 08/08/2024 08/17/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 4,285 399
CORN 1,166,090 986,183 510,559 50,099,221 36,181,641
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 168 0
MIXED 24 0 0 596 0
OATS 0 0 0 148 3,095
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 107,503 59,406 57,933 5,791,665 2,513,236
SOYBEANS 398,233 349,636 320,431 43,784,599 51,546,643
SUNFLOWER 0 0 384 7,325 5,775
WHEAT 347,519 666,662 311,314 4,583,746 3,639,908
Total 2,019,369 2,061,887 1,200,621 104,271,753 93,890,697
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Setting Bolls 84 74 78 81
Cotton Bolls Opening 19 13 17 17
Corn Silking 97 94 98 98
Corn Dough 74 60 74 71
Corn Dented 30 18 30 26
Corn Mature 5 3 3
Soybeans Blooming 95 91 95 95
Soybeans Setting Pods 81 72 84 80
Sorghum Headed 83 73 78 80
Sorghum Coloring 39 32 36 35
Sorghum Mature 19 18 19
Rice Headed 94 90 92 89
Rice Harvested 21 13 17 13
Oats Harvested 67 57 67 70
Winter Wheat Harvested 96 93 95 95
Spring Wheat Harvested 31 18 35 36
Barley Harvested 30 18 43 43
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 8 18 32 35 7
Cotton Last Week 9 16 29 39 7
Cotton Last Year 22 24 21 27 6
Corn This Week 4 7 22 51 16
Corn Last Week 3 7 23 47 16
Corn Last Year 5 10 27 47 11
Soybeans This Week 2 6 24 54 14
Soybeans Last Week 2 6 24 55 13
Soybeans Last Year 4 9 28 49 10
Spring Wheat This Week 1 4 22 61 12
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 4 23 59 13
Spring Wheat Last Year 4 19 39 35 3
Sorghum This Week 6 12 33 42 7
Sorghum Last Week 6 10 33 43 8
Sorghum Last Year 8 14 27 42 9
Rice This Week 1 3 17 64 15
Rice Last Week 1 3 17 61 18
Rice Last Year 1 4 27 52 16
Peanuts This Week 1 4 27 62 6
Peanuts Last Week 1 5 26 60 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 6 26 61 6
Barley This Week 1 8 22 64 5
Barley Last Week 0 6 25 62 7
Barley Last Year 2 10 39 44 5
Pastures and Ranges This Week 14 20 32 27 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 12 20 33 28 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 16 19 28 31 6
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed in all three Wheat markets on selling seen in part on weaker overseas prices reported in Russia and Europe and less than inspiring weekly export inspections reported by USDA against general short covering seen in all grains markets. The USDA crop report also hurt Winter Sheat, but supported prices in Minneapolis which closed a little higher for the week. US harvest progress and ideas of good crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 520, 514, and 508 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 528, 520, and 514 September, with resistance at 559, 567, and 579 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 579, 574, and 568 September, and resistance is at 601, 613, and 629 September.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering tied in part to a weaker US Dollar. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as a result as the harvest moves forward. However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1449, 1431, and 1415 September and resistance is at 1509, 1516, and 1532 September
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering. The Pro Farmer crop tour has started and found good Corn and Soybeans crops in Ohio. The crops in South Dakota showed signs of heat stress and a lack of rain. Yields for both states were calculated to be slightly below year ago levels. The weekly USDA export inspections report showed strong demand. The increased demand came from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week. Pro Farmer is holding its annual Midwest crop tour this week and most traders expect the tourists to report top yields and record production potential given the USDA reports from last Monday and the weather outlooks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 367, 364, and 361 September, and resistance is at 385, 390, and 402 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 308, 302, and 296 September, and resistance is at 323, 330, and 336 September
SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on speculative short covering generated by a stronger weekly export inspections report and news from the Pro Farmer crop tour. Trader reported top production potential and traders expect the Pro Farmer crop tour in Ohio, but less than idea conditions in South Dakota. Pod countss were a little below year ago levels. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the last week. This week should be dry and temperatures should turn cooler amid dry weather this week. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but is buying a lot in the US as well. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 239,492 tons of US Soybeans and Chiuna bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 940 928, and 914 September, and resistance is at 1007, 1018, and 1033 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 293.00 September. Support is at 298.00, 295.00, and 292.00 September, and resistance is at 313.00, 316.00, and 323.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3910, 3850, and 3800 September, with resistance at 4130, 4190, and 4360 September.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on export volume weakness as reported by AmSpec. Indian imports of Palm Oil were the highest for the year in July. Exports are 834,948 tons so far this month. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher along with Chicago and on speculative short covering as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies, but growing conditions overall are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 560.00, 558.00, and 546.00 November, with resistance at 591.00, 607.00, and 617.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3670, 3640, and 3610 November, with resistance at 3730, 3740, and 3780 November.
Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 935.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 882.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 877.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 940.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 895.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 887.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 882.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 962.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 842.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 3,920.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 340.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.374)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 20
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 134,609 lots, or .58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,481 4,492 4,451 4,453 4,481 4,477 -4 20,646 21,461
Nov-24 4,348 4,359 4,325 4,329 4,355 4,341 -14 7,955 25,216
Jan-25 4,252 4,253 4,211 4,215 4,256 4,229 -27 96,963 157,895
Mar-25 4,211 4,211 4,159 4,159 4,212 4,178 -34 5,772 11,528
May-25 4,240 4,248 4,210 4,210 4,255 4,226 -29 2,997 6,879
Jul-25 4,217 4,218 4,185 4,185 4,234 4,203 -31 276 1,030
Corn
Turnover: 597,007 lots, or 13.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,304 2,315 2,304 2,309 2,304 2,310 6 73,442 151,742
Nov-24 2,290 2,294 2,278 2,285 2,272 2,286 14 359,421 618,767
Jan-25 2,269 2,273 2,260 2,264 2,255 2,266 11 115,603 455,502
Mar-25 2,251 2,252 2,240 2,244 2,240 2,244 4 28,334 120,509
May-25 2,290 2,291 2,280 2,284 2,280 2,284 4 11,748 37,257
Jul-25 2,294 2,294 2,284 2,286 2,285 2,288 3 8,459 15,097
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,468,874 lots, or 4.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,902 2,950 2,895 2,902 2,913 2,914 1 208,547 316,703
Nov-24 2,928 2,979 2,928 2,938 2,945 2,945 0 115,335 469,821
Dec-24 2,936 2,989 2,935 2,959 2,953 2,959 6 9,259 87,831
Jan-25 2,916 2,971 2,916 2,942 2,932 2,942 10 942,080 1,370,758
Mar-25 2,839 2,894 2,839 2,874 2,846 2,865 19 9,223 100,679
May-25 2,759 2,806 2,758 2,789 2,766 2,784 18 169,838 913,593
Jul-25 2,775 2,820 2,774 2,803 2,781 2,797 16 10,241 89,706
Aug-25 2,867 2,910 2,865 2,893 2,868 2,884 16 4,351 18,849
Palm Oil
Turnover: 688,300 lots, or 52.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,766 7,820 7,762 7,818 7,722 7,790 68 56,433 45,826
Oct-24 7,680 7,800 7,666 7,794 7,636 7,752 116 17,783 13,393
Nov-24 7,654 7,756 7,624 7,748 7,614 7,698 84 4,156 5,784
Dec-24 7,630 7,698 7,592 7,698 7,576 7,648 72 263 782
Jan-25 7,560 7,652 7,534 7,638 7,530 7,592 62 595,022 455,594
Feb-25 7,538 7,592 7,538 7,586 7,474 7,554 80 23 395
Mar-25 7,500 7,550 7,468 7,538 7,454 7,512 58 104 3,260
Apr-25 7,444 7,478 7,418 7,478 7,396 7,458 62 29 281
May-25 7,394 7,452 7,358 7,450 7,364 7,412 48 14,434 79,745
Jun-25 7,338 7,442 7,332 7,392 7,334 7,380 46 32 96
Jul-25 7,304 7,412 7,300 7,336 7,294 7,340 46 14 51
Aug-25 7,330 7,330 7,318 7,318 7,280 7,326 46 7 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 458,924 lots, or 33.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,366 7,460 7,366 7,424 7,388 7,418 30 86,397 102,268
Nov-24 7,342 7,410 7,322 7,406 7,336 7,374 38 12,663 27,960
Dec-24 7,376 7,426 7,358 7,422 7,378 7,400 22 311 2,795
Jan-25 7,358 7,412 7,334 7,408 7,342 7,378 36 332,646 591,998
Mar-25 7,298 7,344 7,280 7,342 7,290 7,318 28 290 3,975
May-25 7,166 7,226 7,158 7,212 7,164 7,194 30 26,582 149,155
Jul-25 7,190 7,228 7,188 7,192 7,158 7,204 46 24 490
Aug-25 7,168 7,216 7,166 7,216 7,154 7,184 30 11 8
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.