Grains Report 08/13/2024

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts
in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2024 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn Production 15,147.0 15,103 14,920-15,284 15,100
Soybean Production 4,589.0 4,469 4,396-4,537 4,435
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn Yield 183.1 182.1 181.1-184.0 181.0
Soybean Yield 53.2 52.5 52.0-53.0 52.0
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2023-24
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,867.0 1,882 1,825-1,977 1,877
Soybeans 345.0 347 332- 360 345
Wheat 702.0 702 702- 705 702
2024-25
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,073.0 2,092 1,987-2,295 2,097
Soybeans 560.0 472 396- 540 435
Wheat 828.0 860 830- 876 856
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 308.5 309.7 308.0-313.5 309.1
Soybeans 112.4 110.9 108.8-112.5 111.3
Wheat 262.4 261.0 260.0-262.0 261.0
2024-25
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 310.2 311.2 307.0-315.0 311.6
Soybeans 134.3 127.6 125.6-130.5 127.8
Wheat 256.6 257.3 254.0-260.0 257.2
***
2024-25 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
All Wheat 1,982 2,016 1,982-2,035 2,008
Winter Wheat 1,361 1,348 1,329-1,396 1,342
Hard Red Winter 776 766 755-788 763
Soft Red Winter 342 345 340-349 344
White Winter 243 237 224-280 234
Other Spring 544 580 540-600 578
Durum 77 90 88-95 89

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Aug 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
24/25 23/24 22/23: 24/25 23/24 22/23: 24/25 23/24 22/23

Soybeans 560.0 345.0 264.0:181.22 177.30 171.76:428.73 395.12 378.50
Brazil na na na:105.00 105.00 95.50:169.00 153.00 162.00
Argentina na na na: 4.50 5.60 4.19: 51.00 49.00 25.00
China na na na: 0.10 0.10 0.09: 20.70 20.84 20.28
Soyoil 1,777 1,612 1,607: 12.02 11.12 11.71: 65.52 62.32 59.61
Corn 2,073 1,867 1,360:191.47 200.59 180.24: 1,220 1,224 1,160
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.01:292.00 288.84 277.20
Argentina na na na: 36.00 35.00 25.24: 51.00 50.00 36.00
S.Africa na na na: 3.20 2.50 3.44: 17.00 14.00 17.10
Cotton(a) 4.50 3.15 4.25: 43.54 44.73 37.09:117.64 113.58 116.46
All Wheat 828 702 570:214.86 220.80 221.76:798.28 789.67 789.01
China na na na: 1.00 1.04 0.95:140.00 136.59 137.72
European
Union na na na: 34.00 37.50 35.08:128.00 134.87 134.29
Canada na na na: 25.00 25.00 25.59: 35.00 31.95 34.34
Argentina na na na: 11.50 8.20 3.66: 18.00 15.85 12.55
Australia na na na: 23.00 20.00 31.82: 30.00 26.00 40.55
Russia na na na: 48.00 55.50 49.00: 83.00 91.50 92.00
Ukraine na na na: 14.00 18.40 17.12: 21.60 23.00 21.50
Sorghum 24.0 25.0 24.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 73.0 78.0 66.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 40.0 36.0 35.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 43.6 38.3 30.3: 54.42 54.54 54.64:527.71 520.42 516.03

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 12
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Aug 12, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 08, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/08/2024 08/01/2024 08/10/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 4,285 399
CORN 974,677 1,272,127 459,030 48,921,126 35,671,082
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 168 0
MIXED 0 0 0 572 0
OATS 0 0 399 148 3,095
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 59,406 172,132 116,298 5,684,162 2,455,303
SOYBEANS 326,546 266,883 418,370 43,363,293 51,226,212
SUNFLOWER 0 0 384 7,325 5,391
WHEAT 649,199 470,482 269,268 4,218,764 3,328,594
Total 2,009,828 2,181,624 1,263,749 102,199,843 92,690,076
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Squaring 96 91 95 95
Cotton Setting Bolls 74 60 69 73
Cotton Bolls Opening 13 8 12 12
Corn Silking 94 88 95 94
Corn Dough 60 46 60 56
Corn Dented 18 7 15 12
Soybeans Blooming 91 86 93 90
Soybeans Setting Pods 72 59 75 70
Sorghum Headed 73 63 68 68
Sorghum Coloring 32 25 29 28
Rice Headed 90 80 83 79
Rice Harvested 13 7 13 10
Peanuts Pegging 95 92 94 94
Oats Harvested 57 47 57 59
Winter Wheat Harvested 93 88 91 91
Spring Wheat Harvested 18 6 20 21
Barley Harvested 18 7 25 25

Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 9 16 29 39 7
Cotton Last Week 12 115 28 37 8
Cotton Last Year 19 24 21 30 6

Corn This Week 3 7 23 51 16
Corn Last Week 3 7 23 51 16
Corn Last Year 4 9 28 48 11

Soybeans This Week 2 6 24 55 13
Soybeans Last Week 2 6 24 54 13
Soybeans Last Year 3 9 29 48 11

Spring Wheat This Week 1 4 23 59 13
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 3 22 63 11
Spring Wheat Last Year 4 16 38 39 3

Sorghum This Week 6 10 33 43 8
Sorghum Last Week 7 11 35 40 7
Sorghum Last Year 5 12 29 45 9

Rice This Week 1 3 17 61 18
Rice Last Week 1 2 17 63 17
Rice Last Year 1 5 27 51 16

Peanuts This Week 1 5 26 60 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 24 61 10
Peanuts Last Year 1 4 26 62 7

Barley This Week 0 6 25 62 7
Barley Last Week 0 6 22 66 8
Barley Last Year 1 8 37 48 6

Pastures and Ranges This Week 12 20 33 28 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 13 18 34 29 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 15 17 28 33 7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed yesterday, with Minneapolis a little higher on reduced yield potential shown in the data, but KC and Chicago a little lower as yield projections held strong. US harvest progress and ideas of good crops went against reports of hot and dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 520, 514, and 508 September, with resistance at 557, 581, and 592 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 540, 534, and 528 September, with resistance at 567, 579, and 590 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 579, 574, and 568 September, and resistance is at 600, 613, and 629 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday and trends have turned down again in response to the release of the USDA reports. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too dry, especially in Texas. However, planted area has increased from last year and so most are looking for a rebound in production this year. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall, and this has been confirmed by the USDA data released this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1344 and 1207 September. Support is at 1452, 1431, and 1415 September and resistance is at 1480, 1490, and 1509 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and Oats closed lower yesterday, with both crops showing very strong yield potential but Corn supported by USDA reducing harvested area and planted area and also increasing demand potential. The increased demand came from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest this week. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota have had way too much rain but the weather is better now.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 136,160 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 373, 370, and 367 September, and resistance is at 390, 402, and 409 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 317, 311, and 302 September, and resistance is at 336, 348, and 364 September

SOYBEAN
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on bearish data that was released by USDA that showed increased yields and production and a sharp increase in ending stocks. Demand news was moderate for both Soybeans and Soybean Meal last week with big sales announced on the daily system. There was more beneficial precipitation in much of the Midwest over the last week. This week should be dry and temperatures should turn cooler amid dry weather this week. Some selling came from reduced demand ideas. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.
Overnight News China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 956, 942, and 928 September, and resistance is at 1007, 1018, and 1033 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 311.00 and 293.00 September. Support is at 301.00, 298.00, and 295.00 September, and resistance is at 313.00, 316.00, and 323.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4130, 4030, and 3970 September, with resistance at 4260, 4350, and 4510 September.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on reports of weaker export demand. Reports indicate that production is rising as well. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was lower as oilseed supplies look to be ample in the coming year and as demand ideas are down. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies, but growing conditions overall are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 585.00, 572.00, and 560.00 November, with resistance at 607.00, 617.00, and 627.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3680, 3620, and 3560 October, with resistance at 3770, 3830, and 3880 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 61 July 137 Sep
49 Sep
95 Aug

August 76 Sep 137 Sep 49 Sep 95 Nov

Sep 82 Sep 145 Sep 48 Sep 90 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 917.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 897.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 872.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 872.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 870.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 920.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 875.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 872.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 925.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 835.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 3,900.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 325.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.446)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 124,833 lots, or 5.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 4,559 4,565 4,536 4,540 4,565 4,550 -15 61,125 62,705
Nov-24 4,471 4,471 4,415 4,415 4,477 4,437 -40 12,949 21,796
Jan-25 4,390 4,390 4,330 4,331 4,407 4,360 -47 47,151 79,180
Mar-25 4,358 4,358 4,303 4,304 4,380 4,330 -50 2,248 6,168
May-25 4,378 4,383 4,339 4,339 4,406 4,362 -44 1,190 3,674
Jul-25 4,369 4,369 4,319 4,319 4,386 4,342 -44 170 418
Corn
Turnover: 720,110 lots, or 1.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 2,303 2,318 2,289 2,294 2,305 2,300 -5 350,288 375,827
Nov-24 2,285 2,298 2,264 2,266 2,289 2,280 -9 205,787 487,216
Jan-25 2,258 2,276 2,246 2,247 2,266 2,260 -6 129,285 408,820
Mar-25 2,259 2,272 2,244 2,246 2,264 2,257 -7 18,954 97,573
May-25 2,292 2,307 2,285 2,285 2,298 2,294 -4 7,080 21,080
Jul-25 2,300 2,316 2,290 2,290 2,305 2,299 -6 8,716 10,982
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,636,294 lots, or 77.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 – – – 2,969 2,969 2,969 0 61 20,041
Sep-24 2,968 2,988 2,862 2,877 2,980 2,929 -51 879,813 649,471
Nov-24 3,025 3,032 2,908 2,920 3,023 2,969 -54 159,599 478,387
Dec-24 3,047 3,055 2,931 2,941 3,050 2,999 -51 12,189 84,213
Jan-25 3,030 3,046 2,918 2,931 3,041 2,977 -64 1,166,309 1,220,139
Mar-25 2,950 2,957 2,842 2,853 2,957 2,907 -50 22,806 97,538
May-25 2,871 2,876 2,769 2,783 2,876 2,827 -49 361,503 873,442
Jul-25 2,884 2,890 2,783 2,797 2,892 2,840 -52 34,014 80,247
Palm Oil
Turnover: 960,705 lots, or 72.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 7,414 7,612 7,414 7,612 7,784 7,512 -272 10 1,032
Sep-24 7,674 7,708 7,540 7,578 7,710 7,630 -80 355,462 139,657
Oct-24 7,606 7,656 7,476 7,500 7,636 7,552 -84 8,806 8,887
Nov-24 7,600 7,642 7,468 7,484 7,620 7,546 -74 2,894 4,303
Dec-24 7,592 7,602 7,446 7,464 7,598 7,510 -88 309 374
Jan-25 7,552 7,582 7,396 7,436 7,564 7,494 -70 570,195 414,685
Feb-25 7,538 7,550 7,388 7,408 7,538 7,484 -54 52 388
Mar-25 7,522 7,532 7,364 7,380 7,522 7,446 -76 184 3,266
Apr-25 7,478 7,478 7,328 7,344 7,486 7,384 -102 35 269
May-25 7,448 7,468 7,288 7,312 7,458 7,372 -86 22,723 66,915
Jun-25 7,398 7,410 7,290 7,290 7,428 7,344 -84 17 83
Jul-25 7,364 7,364 7,254 7,254 7,390 7,306 -84 18 39
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 737,043 lots, or 54.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-24 – – – 7,260 7,260 7,260 0 0 2,951
Sep-24 7,472 7,496 7,292 7,322 7,494 7,416 -78 192,103 259,843
Nov-24 7,460 7,484 7,274 7,306 7,480 7,378 -102 13,474 28,229
Dec-24 7,522 7,540 7,336 7,372 7,550 7,432 -118 466 2,734
Jan-25 7,496 7,526 7,312 7,348 7,532 7,430 -102 482,941 524,905
Mar-25 7,424 7,440 7,252 7,276 7,456 7,338 -118 321 3,608
May-25 7,310 7,334 7,140 7,162 7,338 7,236 -102 47,559 134,226
Jul-25 7,302 7,330 7,150 7,170 7,330 7,240 -90 179 396
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322