Softs Report 08/13/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher in response to the USDA reports that showed less planted and harvest acres and less yield than trade expectations. The supply side of the reports was bullish for the trade. Demand was cut, but not as much as production and ending stocks were lower. It looks like futures are cheap enough for now but speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 66.40, 65.20, and 64.60 December, with resistance of 70.80, 73.00 and 73.70 December.

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and United States: 2023
and Forecasted August 1, 2024
—————————————————————————————–
Type and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production 1/
:———————————————————————–
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
—————————————————————————————–
: — 1,000 acres — —– pounds —- — 1,000 bales 2/ —
Upland :
United States …: 6,301.8 8,441.6 895 828 11,750.0 14,555.0
American Pima :
United States …: 137.8 192.0 1,101 1,383 316.0 553.0
All :
United States …: 6,439.6 8,633.6 899 840 12,066.0 15,108.0
—————————————————————————————–
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bales.

Cottonseed Production – United States: 2023 and Forecasted August 1, 2024
—————————————————————————– : Production
State :———————————————————–
: 2023 : 2024 1/
—————————————————————————–
: 1,000 tons
:
United States …: 3,644.0 4,605.0
—————————————————————————–
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Jul Aug
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.75 10.23 11.67** 11.17
Harvested 7.29 6.44 9.67** 8.63
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 953 899 844** 840
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.05 4.25 3.05 3.15
Production 14.47 12.07 17.00 15.11
Imports 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 18.52 16.32 20.06 18.27
Domestic Use 2.05 1.85 1.90 1.90
Exports, Total 12.77 11.75 13.00 12.00
Use, Total 14.82 13.60 14.90 13.90
Unaccounted 2/ -0.55 -0.43 -0.15 -0.14
Ending Stocks 4.25 3.15 5.30 4.50
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 84.8 76.0 68.0 66.0
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WASDE – 651 – 18 August 2024
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2024/25 Proj.
World
Jul 79.31 120.19 44.59 117.19 44.59 -0.32 82.63
Aug 75.78 117.64 43.63 116.21 43.54 -0.31 77.61
World Less China
Jul 38.31 92.69 33.09 78.19 44.52 -0.32 41.70
Aug 38.15 90.14 33.63 78.21 43.47 -0.31 40.55
United States
Jul 3.05 17.00 0.01 1.90 13.00 -0.15 5.30
Aug 3.15 15.11 0.01 1.90 12.00 -0.14 4.50
Total Foreign
Jul 76.26 103.19 44.59 115.29 31.59 -0.18 77.33
Aug 72.63 102.53 43.63 114.31 31.54 -0.18 73.11
Major Exporters 4/
Jul 25.81 59.88 2.20 34.71 27.41 -0.18 25.95
Aug 25.64 59.22 2.70 34.68 27.33 -0.18 25.71
Major Importers 8/
Jul 48.03 39.82 39.71 76.27 2.39 0.00 48.90
Aug 44.59 39.82 38.26 75.32 2.39 0.00 44.96
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WASDE – 651 – 28 August 2024

This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Squaring 96 91 95 95
Cotton Setting Bolls 74 60 69 73
Cotton Bolls Opening 13 8 12 12
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 9 16 29 39 7
Cotton Last Week 12 115 28 37 8
Cotton Last Year 19 24 21 30 6

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday on forecasts for more tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this week, but next week could be different. A very active year is forecast and there have been some reports of flooding in the state even with no huge storms. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production also appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 415.00, 410.00, and 393.00 September, with resistance at 454.00, 467.00, and 471.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher after starting the day much higher as offers of Indonesian Robusta and Conillon from Brazil increased with the harvest there of the robusta starting to wind down. It was an impressive session. Reports of better rains in Vietnam and Brazil recently were important but reports indicate that Brazil is turning dry again. There are still reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market. Offers from Vietnam are reported to be down significantly and the current crop in Brazil along with the next crop in Vietnam s reported to be smaller. The weather forecasters now say that conditions are good in Vietnam, but damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest due to small bean sizes. Arabica yields in Brazil and Colombia are reported to be less this year due to extreme weather in both countries.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 236.51 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 230.00, 228.00, and 225.00 September, and resistance is at 252.00, 255.00 and 261.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4320, 4190, and 4070 September, with resistance at 4630, 4680, and 4740 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday after a rally late last week tied to news that India will not permit exports of Sugar. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are turning drier in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are improving. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 October and resistance is at 1890, 1910, and 1950 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 504.00, 498.00, and 492.00 October, with resistance at 533.00, 538.00, and 544.00 October.

Sugarbeet Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2023 and
Forecasted August 1, 2024
[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]
—————————————————————————————
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production
State :———————————————————————–
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
—————————————————————————————
: — 1,000 acres — —– tons —– — 1,000 tons —
United States .: 1,127.3 1,086.0 31.2 32.9 35,226 35,708
—————————————————————————————
1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and
United States: 2023 and Forecasted August 1, 2024
————————————————————————————–
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
State :———————————————————————–
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
————————————————————————————–
: — 1,000 acres — —— tons —– — 1,000 tons —
United States : 929.6 921.0 36.3 37.0 33,766 34,094
————————————————————————————–
(NA) Not available.
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates discontinued in 2024.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Jul Aug
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1820 1843 1986 2043
Production 2/ 9250 9171 9325 9514
Beet Sugar 5187 5118 5236 5363
Cane Sugar 4063 4053 4089 4151
Florida 1985 2077 2004 2066
Louisiana 2001 1936 2085 2085
Texas 76 40 0 0
Imports 3614 3689 2939 2933
TRQ 3/ 1862 1798 1647 1644
Other Program 4/ 141 288 200 200
Non-program 1611 1603 1092 1089
Mexico 1156 515 790 790
High-tier tariff/other 455 1088 302 299
Total Supply 14685 14702 14250 14490
Exports 82 241 100 100
Deliveries 12589 12418 12455 12405
Food 12473 12300 12350 12300
Other 5/ 116 118 105 105
Miscellaneous 171 0 0 0
Total Use 12843 12659 12555 12505
Ending Stocks 1843 2043 1695 1985
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 16.1 13.5 15.9
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2023/24 Est.
Jul 835 4708 747 4630 432 1228
Aug 835 4704 797 4540 441 1355
2024/25 Proj.
Jul 1228 5094 25 4661 708 978
Aug 1355 5094 25 4653 845 977
================================================================================
WASDE – 651 – 17 August 2024

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower as tight supply conditions and reports of good demand are still around, but as prospects for the next crops are called good. The weather for the next crop is still improved as weather reports indicate it is raining in Ivory Coast and Ghana right now. However, it appears that drier weather is coming and this is causing concerns about the next production. The current rains can help production of the next crop but have also created disease concerns about the pods. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 8000, 7690, and 7340 September, with resistance at 9540, 9800, and 10310 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6290, 5880, and 5820 September, with resistance at 6880, 7080, and 7320 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322