About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Food Prices Unchanged in June With Rise in Sugar and Dairy Offsetting Fall in Cereals, UN Says — Update
By Joe Hoppe
Food prices were broadly flat in June as higher prices of vegetable oil, sugar and dairy products offset lower cereal prices, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said.
The FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged 120.6 points in June, unchanged from May’s revised level. In May, food prices rose 0.9% from the previous month.
Cereal prices fell 3%, and they remain down 9% on year. Global export prices of all major cereals fell on month, with wheat price falls mainly reflecting seasonal pressure from underway harvests across the northern hemisphere. Corn export prices also dropped, as harvests in Argentina and Brazil progress, with the production in both countries now expected to be larger than forecast.
Dairy prices rose 1.2% from May levels, with butter prices rising to a two-year high on increased global demand for near-term deliveries against a backdrop of heavy retail sales and seasonally falling milk deliveries.
Meat prices were broadly flat in June, though they remain 1.8% down on year. A drop in poultry prices was nearly outweighed by small to moderate increases in pig, bovine and ovine meats. The drop in poultry prices reflect abundant supplies in some leading producing countries, while pig prices gained slightly on a steady pace of imports and seasonally active internal sales. Ovine meat prices rose significantly on high import demand, as farmers begin liquidating herds in response to unusually dry weather in parts of Australia.
Vegetable-oil prices rose 3.1%, to its highest price since March, 2023. The rise was driven by higher palm, soy and sunflower oil prices, while rapeseed oil prices were largely flat. International palm oil prices rebounded in June, largely driven by increased global import demand on higher price competitiveness.
Sugar prices were up 1.9% from May’s levels, but are still standing nearly 22% lower on year. This broadly reflects a lower-than-expected Brazilian harvest in May and erratic monsoon rainfall in India, along with a lower revises crop yield expectation in the European Union.

General Comments: Cotton was a little lower before the July 4th holiday. USDA showed a decrease in production conditions for the crops in its reports this week that were the result of some extreme weather seen recently in Texas and the Southeast. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and Chinese demand for Cotton has started to increase.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 132 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 72.00, 71.20, and 70.00 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.70 and 79.40 December.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 5
For the week ended Jun 27, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 115.4 56.9 12938.2 13887.4 3140.9 2194.7
pima cotton 2.3 0.0 344.3 324.5 37.3 4.7

General Comments: FCOJ closed lower before the US holiday but trends are turning up again. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: ICE said that 144 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 144 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 422.00, 410.00, and 403.00 September, with resistance at 441.00, 457.00, and 459.00 September.

General Comments: New York and London closed lower in part with New York closed on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday and as more reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market and forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam are still heard. Vietnam said it exported 902,000 tons of Coffee in the first six months of this year, down 10.6% from last year. A little rain has been reported in Vietnam recently to help crops there. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest but the main focus is on the terrible conditions in Vietnam. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 227.04 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 14 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 636 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 217.00, 212.00, and 203.00 September, and resistance is at 229.00, 236.00 and 238.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3960, 3820, and 3740 July, with resistance at 4300, 4390, and 4450 September.

General Comments: New York and London closed mostly higher in light volume trading before the July 4th holiday as harvest progress in Brazil was the important fundamental but as world supplies remain rather tight. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil have been disappointing so far. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. End users need Sugar but are not finding too much available in the cash market. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather, but now the cry weather is causing concern about developing Sugarcane in center south areas. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries and above average rains are in the forecast for India.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2070 and 2170 October. Support is at 1970, 1920, and 1880 October and resistance is at 2090, 2140, and 2170 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 575.00 and 600.00 October. Support is at 550.00, 550.00, and 528.00 October, with resistance at 581.00, 590.00, and 599.00 October.

General Comments: New York was a little higher and London was a little lower in light volume trading before the Independence Day holiday and chart trends are down. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 919 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 6960, 6420, and 6w000 September, with resistance at 8000, 8130, and 8670 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5790, 5350, and 4920 September, with resistance at 6810, 7420, and 7940 September.

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