Grains Report 07/05/2024

DJ Food Prices Unchanged in June With Rise in Sugar and Dairy Offsetting Fall in Cereals, UN Says — Update
By Joe Hoppe
Food prices were broadly flat in June as higher prices of vegetable oil, sugar and dairy products offset lower cereal prices, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said.
The FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged 120.6 points in June, unchanged from May’s revised level. In May, food prices rose 0.9% from the previous month.
Cereal prices fell 3%, and they remain down 9% on year. Global export prices of all major cereals fell on month, with wheat price falls mainly reflecting seasonal pressure from underway harvests across the northern hemisphere. Corn export prices also dropped, as harvests in Argentina and Brazil progress, with the production in both countries now expected to be larger than forecast.
Dairy prices rose 1.2% from May levels, with butter prices rising to a two-year high on increased global demand for near-term deliveries against a backdrop of heavy retail sales and seasonally falling milk deliveries.
Meat prices were broadly flat in June, though they remain 1.8% down on year. A drop in poultry prices was nearly outweighed by small to moderate increases in pig, bovine and ovine meats. The drop in poultry prices reflect abundant supplies in some leading producing countries, while pig prices gained slightly on a steady pace of imports and seasonally active internal sales. Ovine meat prices rose significantly on high import demand, as farmers begin liquidating herds in response to unusually dry weather in parts of Australia.
Vegetable-oil prices rose 3.1%, to its highest price since March, 2023. The rise was driven by higher palm, soy and sunflower oil prices, while rapeseed oil prices were largely flat. International palm oil prices rebounded in June, largely driven by increased global import demand on higher price competitiveness.
Sugar prices were up 1.9% from May’s levels, but are still standing nearly 22% lower on year. This broadly reflects a lower-than-expected Brazilian harvest in May and erratic monsoon rainfall in India, along with a lower revises crop yield expectation in the European Union.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 5
For the week ended Jun 27, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 805.3 0.0 6899.3 4621.7 5632.9 0.0
hrw 196.9 0.0 1695.1 923.4 1411.0 0.0
srw 147.9 0.0 1100.6 1309.6 971.8 0.0
hrs 292.1 0.0 2388.1 1466.1 1975.9 0.0
white 162.4 0.0 1588.5 820.5 1147.2 0.0
durum 6.0 0.0 126.9 102.3 126.9 0.0
corn 357.2 311.5 53735.2 39040.1 9555.1 3525.4
soybeans 228.4 150.3 44788.8 52465.0 3615.6 1375.7
soymeal 212.9 288.6 13079.0 11743.9 2691.4 846.5
soyoil 16.5 -4.8 188.6 123.2 54.6 18.9
upland cotton 115.4 56.9 12938.2 13887.4 3140.9 2194.7
pima cotton 2.3 0.0 344.3 324.5 37.3 4.7
sorghum -0.8 0.0 5455.4 2250.7 350.9 0.3
barley 0.1 0.0 19.4 16.3 18.7 0.0
rice 28.0 71.0 3421.4 1936.5 407.4 174.5

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 08, 2024 235 Jul 02, 2024
CORN July Jul 08, 2024 106 Jun 27, 2024
WHEAT July Jul 08, 2024 68 Jul 03, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets in front of ther holiday yesterday as the market gave back part of the Monday price gains. Russia is likely to expand the war and has reportedly started to make some threats against the US and NATO countries. USDA showed that the quarterly stocks were a little higher than expected but that planted area was a little below expectations. The US harvest is expanding through Kansas and is now more than 50% complete for the country as a whole and adverse world growing conditions are still around. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 566, 557, and 550 September, with resistance at 605, 614, and 631 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 576, 568, and 565 September, with resistance at 601, 614, and 636 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 602, 596, and 590 September, and resistance is at 646, 649, and 669 September.46

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower before the July 4th holiday as the market continued to digest the reports from Friday that showed increased planted area for Rice. The US weather is now improved and big crops are expected once again after some big rains threatened crops earlier n the growing season. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1502 and 1460 September. Support is at 1494, 1484, and 1468 September and resistance is at 1548, 1563, and 1571 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed mostly a little lower before the July 4th holiday yesterday, but nearby Corn was higher along with Soybeans. Weakness was based on higher than expected planted area estimates released by USDA along with sharply higher than expected quarterly stocks data and strength coming from rallies in Soybeans and Wheat. The US weather feature moderate temperatures and increasing chances for rains. Northern areas such as southern Minnesota that have had way too much rain and flooding is still reported. The US Midwest is seeing uneven growing conditions and so are Southeast growing areas. However, USDA kept crop conditions unchanged at high levels and the market sees no real problem at this time.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 400, 394, and 388 September, and resistance is at 429, 432, and 443 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 302, 296, and 290 September, and resistance is at 322, 327, and 338 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher going into the Independence Day holiday, but Soybean Meal was mixed. Deteriorating growing conditions in the US and on forecasts for less heat and more rain in areas in the Midwest this week were supportive. USDA found less than expected planted area and slightly more stocks than had been expected by the trade. Precipitation chances are high in northern Midwest areas that have already been flooded. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but has cut back and increased purchases from the US on demand due to the tax issues in Brazil and on Brazil logistical concerns. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1117 and 1094 August. Support is at 1128, 1116, and 1104 August, and resistance is at 1162, 1180, and 1186 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 344.00, 343.00, and 340.00 August, and resistance is at 355.00, 359.00, and 361.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4660 and 4890 August. Support is at 4510, 4440, and 4390 August, with resistance at 4890, 4970, and 5030 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today and trends are trying to turn up again. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was sharply higher yesterday as Canadian market caught up with those in the US. The daily charts show that Canola rejected a new leg down last week and closed near the top end of the recent trading range
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 664.00 and 708.00 November. Support is at 618.00, 599.00, and 591.00 November, with resistance at 660.00, 664.00, and 670.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3770 and 3630 September. Support is at 4020, 3990, and 3960 September, with resistance at 4170, 4220, and 4280 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 58 July 110 July
60 July
69 July

July 69 July 115 July 60 July 70 July

August 62 Sep 120 Sep 35 Sep 82 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 912.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 905.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 902.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 897.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 915.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 907.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 905.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 892.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 900.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 912.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 840.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 4,130.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 331.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.708)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 87,831 lots, or 4.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 4,674 4,674 4,674 0 0 0
Sep-24 4,708 4,730 4,701 4,729 4,704 4,716 12 76,317 168,523
Nov-24 4,596 4,623 4,586 4,620 4,595 4,605 10 3,720 19,316
Jan-25 4,594 4,597 4,564 4,591 4,578 4,580 2 7,219 35,620
Mar-25 4,547 4,559 4,532 4,552 4,546 4,547 1 343 2,800
May-25 4,545 4,564 4,535 4,560 4,546 4,549 3 232 2,625
Corn
Turnover: 485,338 lots, or 11.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 2,445 2,445 2,445 0 50 222
Sep-24 2,471 2,479 2,466 2,469 2,476 2,472 -4 351,976 690,122
Nov-24 2,403 2,413 2,396 2,400 2,411 2,403 -8 77,916 264,296
Jan-25 2,387 2,392 2,376 2,380 2,389 2,383 -6 44,027 196,977
Mar-25 2,383 2,390 2,378 2,379 2,387 2,382 -5 10,602 50,568
May-25 2,426 2,434 2,422 2,424 2,431 2,426 -5 767 4,680
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,602,408 lots, or 53.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 3,176 3,176 3,176 0 0 4,321
Aug-24 3,273 3,327 3,273 3,311 3,313 3,301 -12 53,567 74,728
Sep-24 3,310 3,355 3,298 3,338 3,345 3,327 -18 1,167,140 1,742,879
Nov-24 3,333 3,377 3,326 3,362 3,381 3,350 -31 45,522 414,802
Dec-24 3,397 3,430 3,386 3,421 3,432 3,403 -29 4,191 46,650
Jan-25 3,388 3,418 3,369 3,410 3,421 3,393 -28 245,874 710,992
Mar-25 3,156 3,195 3,156 3,193 3,203 3,180 -23 15,475 54,209
May-25 3,073 3,095 3,066 3,092 3,086 3,080 -6 70,639 436,264
Palm Oil
Turnover: 826,196 lots, or 6.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 7,834 7,834 7,834 0 0 0
Aug-24 8,116 8,156 7,986 8,002 8,114 8,074 -40 17,731 5,186
Sep-24 7,998 8,058 7,924 7,954 8,034 8,004 -30 730,873 571,337
Oct-24 7,924 7,976 7,858 7,880 7,956 7,928 -28 2,101 2,168
Nov-24 7,902 7,950 7,830 7,858 7,930 7,906 -24 237 550
Dec-24 7,892 7,928 7,834 7,842 7,926 7,900 -26 59 383
Jan-25 7,902 7,956 7,828 7,854 7,934 7,904 -30 67,636 220,995
Feb-25 7,906 7,920 7,832 7,832 7,906 7,898 -8 38 320
Mar-25 7,922 7,922 7,834 7,838 7,922 7,894 -28 66 2,361
Apr-25 7,904 7,924 7,842 7,842 7,924 7,892 -32 39 205
May-25 7,900 7,934 7,842 7,864 7,920 7,888 -32 7,403 27,224
Jun-25 7,868 7,878 7,820 7,820 7,896 7,858 -38 13 189
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 426,677 lots, or 34.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 7,662 7,662 7,662 0 0 380
Aug-24 7,926 7,982 7,892 7,900 7,978 7,934 -44 12,118 25,179
Sep-24 7,976 8,034 7,938 7,952 8,030 7,986 -44 354,153 633,925
Nov-24 7,990 8,028 7,936 7,952 8,028 7,970 -58 1,570 9,736
Dec-24 8,066 8,096 8,018 8,038 8,098 8,062 -36 96 1,605
Jan-25 8,076 8,102 8,006 8,022 8,094 8,056 -38 53,556 285,489
Mar-25 7,874 7,898 7,824 7,830 7,874 7,862 -12 199 3,573
May-25 7,832 7,838 7,756 7,772 7,836 7,794 -42 4,985 60,560
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322