Softs Report 07/02/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday on the strength in Crude Oil futures. Big storms were reported in southern Texas in recent weeks that could damage crops. There are also some big problems with too much sun and no rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent weeks. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and Chinese demand for Cotton has started to increase.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 132 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 72.00, 71.20, and 70.00 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.70 and 79.40 December.

This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 97 94 98 99
Cotton Squaring 43 30 38 38
Cotton Setting Bolls 11 8 9 9
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 8 9 33 44 6
Cotton Last Week 5 9 30 51 5
Cotton Last Year 7 14 31 41 7

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and generally remained within the current trading range. The daily charts show that the market is trying to form a bottom. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 410.00, 403.00, and 384.00 September, with resistance at 433.00, 440.00, and 457.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little lower yesterday and London closed higher as London as more reports of short supplies that could be made worse by ideas of reduced offers of Robusta are still in the market and forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam are still heard. Vietnam said it exported 902,000 tons of Coffee in the first six months of this year, down 10.6% from last year. A little rain has been reported in Vietnam recently to help crops there. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest but the main focus is on the terrible conditions in Vietnam. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 224.77 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 4 contracts were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 622 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 217.00, 212.00, and 203.00 September, and resistance is at 229.00, 236.00 and 238.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3960, 3820, and 3740 July, with resistance at 4300, 4390, and 4450 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed mixed and London closed lower as harvest progress in Brazil was the important fundamental but as world supplies remain rather tight. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil have been disappointing so far. Trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. End users need Sugar but are not finding too much available in the cash market. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather, but now the cry weather is causing concern about developing Sugarcane in center south areas. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries and above average rains are in the forecast for India.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2070 and 2170 October. Support is at 1970, 1920, and 1880 October and resistance is at 2060, 2090, and 2140 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 575.00 and 600.00 October. Support is at 550.00, 550.00, and 528.00 October, with resistance at 581.00, 590.00, and 599.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower again yesterday on continued speculative long liquidation and chart trends are down. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures, but this support is running its course and the market is searching for a new bullish fundamental. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 9 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 919 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 6960, 6420, and 6000 September, with resistance at 8000, 8130, and 8670 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5790, 5350, and 4920 September, with resistance at 6810, 7420, and 7940 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322