About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 03, 2024 161 Jun 28, 2024
ROUGH RICE July Jul 03, 2024 6 Apr 30, 2024
CORN July Jul 03, 2024 263 Jun 26, 2024
WHEAT July Jul 03, 2024 201 Jun 27, 2024

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 1
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Jul 1, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 27, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/27/2024 06/20/2024 06/29/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 899 222 0 2,918 0
CORN 819,577 1,152,950 675,889 42,477,583 33,161,226
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 120 0
MIXED 0 0 0 572 0
OATS 0 0 0 100 799
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 55,289 1,109 9,110 5,199,743 1,852,871
SOYBEANS 303,023 349,884 264,172 41,536,686 49,432,352
SUNFLOWER 192 0 144 7,229 2,848
WHEAT 309,775 343,672 342,175 1,362,323 1,101,405
Total 1,488,755 1,847,861 1,291,490 90,587,274 85,551,501
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 97 94 98 99
Cotton Squaring 43 30 38 38
Cotton Setting Bolls 11 8 9 9
Corn Silking 11 4 7 6
Soybeans Emerged 95 90 97 93
Soybeans Blooming 20 8 20 15
Soybeans Setting Pods 3 3 2
Sorghum Planted 96 90 90 94
Sorghum Headed 19 17 20 20
Sorghum Coloring 12 11 11
Rice Headed 18 13 18 13
Peanuts Pegging 44 30 36 42
Sunflowers Planted 97 93 98 96
Oats Headed 74 61 76 71
Winter Wheat Harvested 54 40 33 39
Spring Wheat Headed 38 18 45 37
Barley Headed 38 12 32 38

Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 8 9 33 44 6
Cotton Last Week 5 9 30 51 5
Cotton Last Year 7 14 31 41 7

Corn This Week 3 6 24 52 15
Corn Last Week 2 5 24 55 14
Corn Last Year 4 11 34 43 8

Soybeans This Week 2 6 25 55 12
Soybeans Last Week 2 6 25 56 11
Soybeans Last Year 4 11 35 44 6

Winter Wheat This Week 5 10 34 41 10
Winter Wheat Last Week 5 10 33 42 10
Winter Wheat Last Year 12 17 31 23 6

Spring Wheat This Week 1 3 24 61 11
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 3 25 64 7
Spring Wheat Last Year 3 9 40 46 2

Sorghum This Week 3 5 34 50 8
Sorghum Last Week 2 4 33 54 7
Sorghum Last Year 2 6 37 49 6

Rice This Week 1 2 15 57 15
Rice Last Week 1 1 15 67 16
Rice Last Year 1 4 25 59 11

Peanuts This Week 3 9 35 49 4
Peanuts Last Week 2 7 32 56 3
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 32 60 4

Oats This Week 6 5 22 57 ten
Oats Last Week 6 5 22 57 10
Oats Last Year 7 9 39 42 3

Barley This Week 1 4 31 60 4
Barley Last Week 1 3 29 65 3
Barley Last Year 1 6 42 49 2

Pastures and Ranges This Week 9 14 29 39 9
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 10 15 28 39 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 8 17 30 35 10

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher in all three markets after trading lower early in the day. The rally came on news that Russia was considering expanding the war. USDA showed that the quarterly stocks were a little higher than expected but that planted area was a little below expectations. The US harvest is expanding through Kansas and adverse world growing conditions are still around. There were more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. However, US producers are reporting strong yields that exceed expectations so far and very good conditions as the harvest is now past the halfway point. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 566, 557, and 550 September, with resistance at 605, 614, and 631 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 576, 568, and 565 September, with resistance at 601, 614, and 636 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 602, 596, and 590 September, and resistance is at 646, 649, and 669 September.46

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower in new crop months as the market continued to digest the reports from Friday that showed increased planted area for Rice. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston, but the weather is now improved and big crops are expected once again. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1502 and 1460 September. Support is at 1500, 1494, and 1484 September and resistance is at 1548, 1563, and 1571 September

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little higher yesterday, with weakness based on higher than expected planted area estimates released by USDA along with sharply higher than expected quarterly stocks data and strength coming from rallies in Soybeans and Wheat. The US weather remains hot and mostly dry except for northern areas such as southern Minnesota that have had way too much rain and flooding reported. The US Midwest is seeing uneven growing conditions and so are Southeast growing areas. However, USDA kept crop conditions high and the market sees no real problem at this time.
Overnight News: Colombia bought 100,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 400, 394, and 388 September, and resistance is at 429, 432, and 443 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 302, 296, and 290 September, and resistance is at 322, 327, and 338 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher yesterday, but Soybean Meal was a little lower. Deteriorating growing conditions in the US and on forecasts for less heat and more rain in areas in the Midwest this week were supportive. USDA found less than expected plamted area and slightly more stocks than had been expected by the trade. Precipitation chances are high in northern Midwest areas that have already been flooded. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but has cut back and increased purchases from the US on demand due to the tax issues in Brazil and on Brazil logistical concerns. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1117 and 1094 August. Support is at 1128, 1116, and 1104 August, and resistance is at 1155, 1162, and 1180 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 344.00, 343.00, and 340.00 August, and resistance is at 353.00, 359.00, and 361.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 4660 and 4890 August. Support is at 4510, 4440, and 4390 August, with resistance at 4620, 4680, and 4700 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday and trends are trying to turn up again. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was closed for a holiday. The daily charts show that Canola rejected a new leg down last week and closed near the top end of the recent trading range
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 618.00, 599.00, and 591.00 November, with resistance at 630.00, 634.00, and 640.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3770 and 3630 September. Support is at 3780, 3760, and 3680 September, with resistance at 4020, 4080, and 4100 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 58 July 110 July
60 July
69 July

July 69 July 115 July 60 July 70 July

August 62 Sep 120 Sep 35 Sep 82 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 917.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 910.00 — Unquoted – –
Sep 907.50 — Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 897.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 907.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 920.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 902.50 — Unquoted – –
Sep 910.00 — Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 900.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 910.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 917.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 855.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 4,150.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 314.00 +12.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.719)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 96,178 lots, or 4.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,755 4,755 4,700 4,730 4,670 4,728 58 520 123
Sep-24 4,680 4,694 4,658 4,689 4,681 4,677 -4 76,817 153,880
Nov-24 4,580 4,596 4,570 4,591 4,581 4,585 4 2,912 20,433
Jan-25 4,567 4,584 4,555 4,576 4,565 4,570 5 14,971 36,829
Mar-25 4,530 4,551 4,523 4,547 4,530 4,538 8 558 2,925
May-25 4,542 4,559 4,532 4,550 4,536 4,544 8 400 2,610
Corn
Turnover: 458,411 lots, or 11.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,445 2,448 2,442 2,442 2,458 2,445 -13 1,126 3,188
Sep-24 2,483 2,489 2,475 2,489 2,491 2,481 -10 354,298 714,200
Nov-24 2,422 2,429 2,416 2,428 2,427 2,421 -6 43,431 242,910
Jan-25 2,396 2,400 2,389 2,398 2,402 2,393 -9 41,949 180,393
Mar-25 2,392 2,400 2,385 2,397 2,399 2,392 -7 16,890 41,944
May-25 2,439 2,441 2,430 2,438 2,440 2,433 -7 717 3,916
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,983,864 lots, or 6.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,184 3,201 3,156 3,201 3,184 3,182 -2 1,013 11,581
Aug-24 3,329 3,370 3,315 3,362 3,333 3,343 10 28,589 89,914
Sep-24 3,353 3,400 3,340 3,393 3,356 3,367 11 1,471,131 1,752,114
Nov-24 3,379 3,425 3,363 3,419 3,380 3,392 12 45,019 403,588
Dec-24 3,399 3,450 3,383 3,444 3,408 3,414 6 7,416 44,995
Jan-25 3,392 3,443 3,380 3,435 3,399 3,410 11 309,104 620,730
Mar-25 3,189 3,233 3,183 3,219 3,201 3,213 12 12,115 42,902
May-25 3,056 3,090 3,052 3,086 3,058 3,070 12 109,477 349,889
Palm Oil
Turnover: 870,784 lots, or 69.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 7,834 7,834 7,834 0 0 0
Aug-24 7,902 8,100 7,896 8,064 7,832 8,016 184 6,437 2,750
Sep-24 7,844 8,030 7,844 7,994 7,780 7,934 154 760,936 580,487
Oct-24 7,806 7,966 7,802 7,922 7,754 7,890 136 1,839 1,457
Nov-24 7,782 7,942 7,780 7,888 7,732 7,850 118 221 602
Dec-24 7,784 7,916 7,774 7,880 7,728 7,838 110 155 361
Jan-25 7,780 7,938 7,776 7,890 7,738 7,852 114 88,832 205,201
Feb-25 7,764 7,910 7,764 7,880 7,726 7,812 86 69 333
Mar-25 7,780 7,924 7,780 7,878 7,728 7,862 134 508 2,386
Apr-25 7,788 7,882 7,784 7,882 7,698 7,812 114 27 215
May-25 7,794 7,948 7,782 7,906 7,758 7,860 102 11,581 26,594
Jun-25 7,748 7,890 7,698 7,848 7,684 7,738 54 179 186
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 705,899 lots, or 56.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 – – – 7,662 7,662 7,662 0 0 380
Aug-24 7,834 7,994 7,800 7,986 7,830 7,904 74 9,827 26,554
Sep-24 7,874 8,046 7,846 8,040 7,874 7,948 74 575,461 655,964
Nov-24 7,904 8,052 7,868 8,038 7,884 7,978 94 1,413 6,553
Dec-24 7,966 8,114 7,954 8,104 7,954 8,054 100 70 1,573
Jan-25 7,954 8,108 7,918 8,094 7,944 8,014 70 107,900 259,476
Mar-25 7,776 7,908 7,740 7,880 7,754 7,802 48 257 3,482
May-25 7,698 7,844 7,660 7,812 7,660 7,736 76 10,971 50,425
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322