Softs Report 06/10/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week and trends turned down on the weekly charts. The daily charts show that the market has entered into a short term trading range. The Brazil government is asking Congress there for new taxes on Ag exports of up to 20% and this news added support to the futures market as the flow of Cotton to export channels could be reduced as producers hold back product from the market. USDA said that 60% of the US crop was rated good to excellent on Tuesday afternoon. Big storms were reported in Texas recently that could damage crops. There are also some big problems with too much rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent weeks. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and Chinese demand for Cotton has started to increase.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 72.30, 70.80, and 69.60 July, with resistance of 76.00, 80.30 and 83.20 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 4, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 280,672 :
: Positions :
: 55,466 86,661 51,372 14,526 15,922 32,909 56,817 31,041 31,316 11,846 48,921 :
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 :
: 186 -7,715 4,607 -1,820 -163 -3,202 7,941 1,805 -470 1,099 2,287 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.8 30.9 18.3 5.2 5.7 11.7 20.2 11.1 11.2 4.2 17.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 310 :
: 47 52 24 8 22 52 68 57 66 30 46 :
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower on Friday and lower for the week, and trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. The Brazil government is asking Congress there for new taxes on Ag exports of up to 20% and this news added support to the futures market as the flow of FCOJ to export channels could be reduced as producers hold back product from the market. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The weekly charts show a key reversal down. Retail prices in May hit a new record high of $9.69 a gallon, 9% higher than last year. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 403.00 and 370.00 July. Support is at 418.00, 406.00, and 389.00 July, with resistance at 452.00, 473.00, and 477.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 4, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,699 :
: Positions :
: 1,994 9,368 1,011 0 235 4,011 361 127 1,979 563 3,635 :
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 :
: 286 -125 45 0 -28 -9 -42 -10 -193 71 10 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 59.7 6.4 0.0 1.5 25.6 2.3 0.8 12.6 3.6 23.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 8 7 5 0 . 23 . . 9 10 11 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little higher last week on short supplies that could be made worse by news that the Brazil government might impose a 20$ tax on agricultural exports and London closed a little higher last week on ideas of reduced offers of Robusta and on forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. Exports from Brazil have remained strong.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 225.96 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 221.00, 212.00, and 208.00 July, and resistance is at 239.00, 241.00 and 245.00 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4230, 4060, and 3990 July, with resistance at 4540, 4660, and 4780 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 04, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 309,778
: Positions :
: 60,468 13,925 105,135 67,969 167,234 66,657 16,522 300,229 302,816: 9,549 6,962
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 (Change in open interest: 18,745) :
: 2,168 -589 7,810 5,932 8,917 3,170 2,271 19,080 18,410: -334 335
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.5 4.5 33.9 21.9 54.0 21.5 5.3 96.9 97.8: 3.1 2.2
: Total Traders: 401 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 130 75 127 102 121 51 21 346 294:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed higher last week despite harvest progress in Brazil and the charts show that trends are turning up. London closed higher. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and up on the weekly charts. End users need Sugar but are not finding too much available in the cash market. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1990 and 2090 July. Support is at 1880, 1840, and 1800 July and resistance is at 1950, 3000, and 2050 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 581.00 and 608.00 August. Support is at 547.00, 536.00, and 528.00 August, with resistance at 570.00, 578.00, and 586.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 04, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,047,600
: Positions :
: 82,022 155,441 253,281 393,895 474,300 245,641 83,511 974,839 966,533: 72,761 81,067
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 (Change in open interest: 11,684) :
: -3,956 1,335 11,746 2,553 -1,459 -4,369 -603 5,974 11,020: 5,710 664
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 14.8 24.2 37.6 45.3 23.4 8.0 93.1 92.3: 6.9 7.7
: Total Traders: 245 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 61 81 73 68 40 24 211 197:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were higher last week and chart trends are up again. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed Support is at 9640, 8930, and 7870 July, with resistance at 10210, 10520, and 11120 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 7260, 6610, and 6160 July, with resistance at 8190, 8250, and 8730 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 04, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 281,380
: Positions :
: 22,253 11,787 142,535 68,839 103,976 34,987 17,302 268,615 275,600: 12,765 5,780
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 (Change in open interest: 10,143) :
: -298 -394 5,850 1,649 3,615 1,982 1,375 9,183 10,446: 960 -303
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 4.2 50.7 24.5 37.0 12.4 6.1 95.5 97.9: 4.5 2.1
: Total Traders: 173 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 40 69 39 37 29 16 158 133:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322