Grains Report 06/10/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets last week as the US harvest expands and even as adverse world growing conditions are still around. There are more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. However, US producers are reporting strong yields so far. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 607, 595, and 569 July, with resistance at 640, 650, and 674 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 656, 647, and 640 July, with resistance at 690, 705, and 728 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 690, 685, and 681 July, and resistance is at 710, 725, and 752 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 04, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 517,578
: Positions :
: 54,285 119,697 172,813 93,937 124,586 161,269 57,040 482,304 474,136: 35,274 43,443
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,433) :
: 3,297 71 -4,845 7,583 494 -4,631 5,668 1,404 1,388: 29 45
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.5 23.1 33.4 18.1 24.1 31.2 11.0 93.2 91.6: 6.8 8.4
: Total Traders: 382 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 109 93 130 96 108 50 33 316 309:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 04, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 281,265
: Positions :
: 30,697 65,780 70,973 64,986 92,150 95,944 26,503 262,600 255,406: 18,665 25,859
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 (Change in open interest: -910) :
: 1,563 3,444 -5,313 181 -5,965 694 6,336 -2,875 -1,497: 1,965 587
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 23.4 25.2 23.1 32.8 34.1 9.4 93.4 90.8: 6.6 9.2
: Total Traders: 228 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 43 52 64 66 76 39 23 187 180:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 4, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 63,354 :
: Positions :
: 26,824 37,888 3,761 366 197 12,877 5,145 4,844 2,602 822 2,841 :
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 :
: 991 2,283 -261 -75 -13 1,318 -674 1,718 572 -55 207 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.3 59.8 5.9 0.6 0.3 20.3 8.1 7.6 4.1 1.3 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 103 :
: 53 44 5 . . 15 10 10 8 4 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed sharply higher in July last week on news that the Brazil government wants to impose a new 20% tax on agricultural exports. The proposed tax must be approved by congress there, but producers have decided to withdraw from the market to await further news. New crop months closed a little lower on improving weather for Rice crops. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop. Big storms have brought significant rains to crops in Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1793, 1773, and 1741 July and resistance is at 1861, 1886, and 1900 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 4, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,281 :
: Positions :
: 4,030 6,537 161 0 0 932 918 163 1,169 33 603 :
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 :
: -123 -1,530 -39 0 0 -710 326 75 -471 -17 51 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.4 70.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 10.0 9.9 1.8 12.6 0.4 6.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 50 :
: 18 18 . 0 0 7 5 . 10 . 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher last week on news that Brazil has proposed new export taxes on Agricultural goods of 20%. Congress must approve the measure, but farmers there are already reported to be halting sales to see what happens next. The US Midwest is still seeing good growing conditions. The market anticipated that crop condition ratings would be very high in the USDA reports last week and will anticipate high crop ratings this week. Oats were lower on good growing conditions found in the northern US and into Canada. The weather in the Midwest has been very wet but it is drier now. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 152,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 438, 436, and 434 July, and resistance is at 454, 461, and 467 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 350, 343, and 330 July, and resistance is at 366, 374, and 381 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 04, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,067,099
: Positions :
: 156,446 350,773 656,899 559,681 588,354 507,889 233,598 1,880,915 1,829,624: 186,184 237,476
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 (Change in open interest: 103,256) :
: -3,927 44,158 50,804 44,146 -33,740 16,482 40,539 107,505 101,761: -4,249 1,495
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 17.0 31.8 27.1 28.5 24.6 11.3 91.0 88.5: 9.0 11.5
: Total Traders: 776 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 142 146 203 357 343 53 39 660 641:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 4, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,510 :
: Positions :
: 961 3,426 163 0 0 746 99 0 563 6 359 :
: Changes from: May 28, 2024
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.3 76.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 16.5 2.2 0.0 12.5 0.1 8.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 22 :
: 6 8 . 0 0 5 . 0 . . 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower last week on good growing conditions in the US against weaker demand ideas and despite reports of increased taxes for Brazil farmers. The government there has proposed a new tax on farm production and exports of up to 20%. Congress must approve the measure, but reports indicate that Brazil farmers are pulling back from sales to see what happens next. There were wire reports that China prices are weakening amid veery strong imports from Brazil. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but might have to cut back on demand if the domestic market does not improve. China said that it has increased exports of Soybean Meal due to the weaker internal demand. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the biofuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1166, 1157, and 1146 July, and resistance is at 1210, 1224, and 1236 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 350.00 and 324.00 July. Support is at 350.00, 345.00, and 342.00 July, and resistance is at 365.00, 367.00, and 373.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4330 and 4130 July. Support is at 4310, 4270, and 4250 July, with resistance at 4530, 4690, and 4780 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 04, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,074,413
: Positions :
: 62,344 152,830 331,922 413,236 439,582 209,171 66,877 1,016,673 991,211: 57,741 83,202
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 (Change in open interest: 66,917) :
: -6,421 26,411 34,942 39,247 -8,016 3,152 14,969 70,921 68,307: -4,003 -1,390
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.8 14.2 30.9 38.5 40.9 19.5 6.2 94.6 92.3: 5.4 7.7
: Total Traders: 583 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 174 201 207 211 52 27 497 490:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 04, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 615,280
: Positions :
: 55,710 134,446 142,337 213,193 265,202 170,376 44,953 581,617 586,937: 33,663 28,343
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 (Change in open interest: 18,032) :
: -1,297 10,405 5,254 16,674 -7,121 -2,481 6,748 18,150 15,286: -118 2,745
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 21.9 23.1 34.6 43.1 27.7 7.3 94.5 95.4: 5.5 4.6
: Total Traders: 337 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 89 102 105 92 46 25 276 261:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 04, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 541,468
: Positions :
: 105,847 46,463 123,791 122,788 314,017 137,582 26,483 490,008 510,755: 51,460 30,713
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,840) :
: -13,300 2,129 6,144 11,435 -12,265 4,873 7,601 9,152 3,609: -4,312 1,231
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.5 8.6 22.9 22.7 58.0 25.4 4.9 90.5 94.3: 9.5 5.7
: Total Traders: 340 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 68 89 114 127 39 21 273 271:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on weekly continuation charts due to the monthly roll, but higher in the individual months on ideas of good export demand despite ideas of increasing production. It was lower today. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was also lower last week on reports of generally good conditions in Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 614.00, 603.00, and 597.00 July, with resistance at 642.00, 645.00, and 660.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3850, 3780, and 3600 August, with resistance at 4080, 4140, and 4300 July.

DJ Malaysia’s May Palm Oil Exports 1.38M Tons; Up 12%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 12% on month at 1.38 million metric tons in May, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the May crop data and revised numbers for April, issued by the MPOB:
May April Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,704,455 1,501,995 Up 13.48%
Palm Oil Exports 1,378,443 1,234,502 Up 11.66%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 87,827 85,901 Up 2.24%
Palm Oil Imports 20,761 34,762 Dn 40.28%
Closing Stocks 1,753,544 1,744,860 Up 0.5%
Crude Palm Oil 979,352 964,049 Up 1.59%
Processed Palm Oil 774,192 780,811 Dn 0.85%

DJ Malaysia June 1-10 Palm-Oil Exports Fell 21.6% on Month, AmSpec Says
By Amanda Lee
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the May 1-10 period are estimated to have fallen 21.6% on month to 284,540 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
June 1-10 May 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 88,685 68,865
RBD Palm Oil 29,305 23,997
RBD Palm Stearin 10,013 20,131
Crude Palm Oil 86,126 77,766
Total* 284,540 362,790
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 4, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 42,176 :
: Positions :
: 33,186 14,310 1,000 15,470 50 600 2,080 80 540 3,436 6,690 :
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 :
: -5,740 -840 -50 -2,940 0 120 -1,350 0 -1,000 -1,570 -980 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 78.7 33.9 2.4 36.7 0.1 1.4 4.9 0.2 1.3 8.1 15.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 27 :
: 8 9 . 4 . . . . . 6 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 4, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 249,182 :
: Positions :
: 193,185 116,393 4,374 12,049 1,416 4,397 72,410 25,477 10,132 10,178 8,981 :
: Changes from: May 28, 2024 :
: 1,211 -19,753 -913 883 50 -4,554 12,969 -8,671 -353 293 -1,222 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 77.5 46.7 1.8 4.8 0.6 1.8 29.1 10.2 4.1 4.1 3.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 311 :
: 58 62 4 6 6 18 74 28 52 68 47 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 59 July 115 July
40 July
66 July

July 60 July 115 July 40 July 67 July

August 56 Sep 110 Sep 30 Sep 70 Aug

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 875.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 875.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 880.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 880.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 880.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 875.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 825.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 3,980.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 290.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.72)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322