Softs Report 06/06/2024

DJ U.S. April Coffee, Cocoa Imports-June 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Apr 2024—- —-Mar 2024—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted
122,793,173 270,758,946 120,008,316 264,618,337
coffee, roasted 10,564,924 23,295,657 9,802,020 21,613,454
coffee, soluble
instant 6,958,399 15,343,270 6,015,586 13,264,367
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 15,372,348 33,896,027 28,316,815 62,438,577
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,852,824 6,290,477 2,576,241 5,680,611
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 7,769,313 17,131,335 6,133,274 13,523,869
cocoa paste,
not defatted 5,531,990 12,198,038 5,700,505 12,569,614
cocoa paste
defatted 3,969,310 8,752,329 7,421,683 16,364,811
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 9,043,042 19,939,908 8,346,935 18,404,992
cocoa powder,
sweetened 130,962 288,771 100,119 220,762
confectioners
coating 5,255,546 11,588,479 5,525,602 12,183,952
candy containing
chocolate 14,072,421 31,029,688 12,055,683 26,582,781

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed to higher yesterday on speculative short covering and signs of improving demand. The weekly export sales report showed improving demand for US Cotton. USDA said that 60% of the US crop was rated good to excellent on Tuesday afternoon. The weekly export sales report showed much improved sales last week. Wire reports indicate that speculators were covering short positions. Big storms are reported in Texas that could damage crops. There are also some big problems with too much rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent days. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and demand for Cotton in world markets has started to increase.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 72.30, 70.80, and 69.60 July, with resistance of 75.40, 80.30 and 83.20 July.

DJ U.S. Apr Cotton Exports-Jun 6
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Apr 24 Mar 24 Feb 24 Apr 23
Upland, under 1 inch 7,873,341 14,160,166 9,093,668 13,143,664
1 to 1 1/8 inch 57,489,836 89,426,716 87,620,631 96,221,350
upland 1 1/8 and over 6,039,310 3,937,541 3,196,216 18,117,112
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 192,154,448 248,392,517 235,843,605 210,820,067
All cotton 263,556,935 355,916,940 335,754,120 338,302,193
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Apr 24 Mar 24 Feb 24 Apr 23
Upland, under 1 inch 36,162 65,037 41,767 60,368
1 to 1 1/8 inch 264,049 410,734 402,438 441,941
upland 1 1/8 and over 27,738 18,085 14,680 83,211
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 882,558 1,140,858 1,083,221 968,289
All cotton 1,210,507 1,634,713 1,542,106 1,553,809

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 6
For the week ended May 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for cotton starts Aug 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
upland cotton 138.7 54.1 12366.0 13511.1 3270.1 1781.0
pima cotton 2.0 0.0 325.7 313.2 47.5 5.1

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower yesterday, and trends are down on the daily charts. The market remains well supported longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The weekly charts show a key reversal down. Retail prices in May hit a new record high of $9.69 a gallon, 9% higher than last year. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 418.00, 406.00, and 389.00 July, with resistance at 452.00, 473.00, and 477.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed sharply higher yesterday on new commercial and speculative trading on ideas of reduced offers of Robusta and on forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. Exports from Brazil have remained strong.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 240.61 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 221.00, 212.00, and 208.00 July, and resistance is at 234.00, 238.00 and 241.00 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4300, 4060, and 3990 July, with resistance at 4480, 4540, and 4660 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed higher despite harvest progress in Brazil and the charts show that trends are turning up. End users need Sugar but are not finding too much available in the cash market. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1990 and 2090 July. Support is at 1880, 1840, and 1800 July and resistance is at 1920, 1950, and 2000 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 581.00 and 608.00 August. Support is at 555.00, 548.00, and 536.00 August, with resistance at 570.00, 578.00, and 586.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday and have developed into a trading range for now. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed Support is at 8930, 7870, and 7370 July, with resistance at 10210, 10520, and 11120 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 7260, 6610, and 6160 July, with resistance at 7930, 8190, and 8250 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322