Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 06/06/2024
DJ U.S. Apr Grain Exports-Jun 6
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Apr 24 Mar 24 Feb 24 Apr 23
Barley 1,044,028 2,004,291 704,000 806,868
Corn /1 6,432,454,000 5,894,170,000 5,370,769,000 5,061,110,000
Sorghum 424,113,000 513,480,000 890,484,000 318,350,000
Oats 1,412,249 2,558,165 3,752,299 2,087,511
Rye 1,261,098 43,943 27,101 102,844
Wheat /1 1,925,851,937 2,099,354,798 1,847,777,893 1,517,537,995
wheat flour /1 18,886,538 16,505,749 16,946,903 14,438,565
Malt 24,916,757 32,789,167 32,096,224 20,531,834
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Apr 24 Mar 24 Feb 24 Apr 23
Barley 47,951 92,055 32,334 37,059
Corn /1 253,231,929 232,040,842 211,435,666 199,245,055
Sorghum 16,696,420 20,214,607 35,056,447 12,532,757
Oats 97,295 176,242 258,510 143,816
Rye 49,647 1,730 1,067 4,049
Wheat /1 70,762,219 77,137,292 67,893,518 55,759,404
wheat flour /1 416,377 363,890 373,615 318,316
Malt 54,932,056 72,287,752 70,760,074 45,264,953
1/Includes commercial and donated.
DJ U.S. Apr Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Jun 6
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Apr 24 Mar 24 Feb 24 Apr 23
soybeans 1,770,127,607 3,054,627,901 5,263,967,521 2,554,281,611
soyoil 10,248,714 44,873,000 6,496,664 27,498,099
crude 700,761 32,386,334 335,265 20,269,175
refined 47,349 161,753 67,564 106,820
other/1 9,347,190 12,153,139 5,905,310 6,935,428
hydrogenated 153,414 171,774 188,525 186,676
cottonseed oil 1,139,961 567,656 661,053 3,417,538
crude 0 54,474 13,305 69,298
refined 421,300 130,319 170,079 2,844,451
other/1 230,603 70,238 116,213 92,060
hydrogenated 488,058 312,625 361,456 411,729
sunseeds 65,885 59,430 157,430 100,550
sunseed oil 2,209,914 3,107,574 2,674,665 4,246,080
rapeseed 12,422,541 11,839,736 11,648,143 8,014,825
rapeseed oil 3,946,342 6,193,119 4,543,827 4,639,747
crude 374,572 3,145,387 1,158,672 360,357
refined 3,571,770 3,047,732 3,385,155 4,279,390
linseed meal 398,421 129,843 52,000 251,888
cottonseed meal 3,445,231 6,516,194 6,199,040 5,236,390
soymeal 925,903,249 1,163,887,185 1,039,754,662 839,241,981
soymeal/flour 307,225,028 321,340,529 301,809,370 273,725,387
soymeal hulls 24,080,000 13,613,000 23,956,000 15,707,000
lard 1,171,344 1,310,855 2,037,405 1,242,339
edible tallow 3,785,263 2,113,105 4,850,594 5,358,156
inedible tallow 13,303,184 14,566,084 4,922,638 12,774,323
ch white grease 57,503 12,440 0 0
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Apr 24 Mar 24 Feb 24 Apr 23
soybeans 65,040,388 112,237,210 193,415,712 93,852,820
soyoil 22,594,551 98,928,048 14,322,695 60,622,942
crude 1,544,914 71,399,657 739,133 44,685,889
refined 104,387 356,604 148,953 235,498
other/1 20,607,030 26,793,090 13,018,982 15,290,004
hydrogenated 338,220 378,697 415,627 411,550
cottonseed oil 2,513,184 1,251,467 1,457,373 7,534,383
crude 0 120,095 29,333 152,776
refined 928,808 287,304 374,960 6,270,942
other/1 508,393 154,848 256,206 202,958
hydrogenated 1,075,984 689,220 796,874 907,707
sunseeds 145,252 131,021 347,074 221,675
sunseed oil 4,872,027 6,851,029 5,896,628 9,361,006
rapeseed 27,387,020 26,102,154 25,679,764 17,669,668
rapeseed oil 8,700,196 13,653,493 10,017,426 10,228,893
crude 825,790 6,934,393 2,554,435 794,451
refined 7,874,406 6,719,100 7,462,991 9,434,442
linseed meal 439 143 57 278
cottonseed meal 3,798 7,183 6,833 5,772
soymeal 1,020,623 1,282,953 1,146,122 925,096
soymeal flour/me 338,654 354,214 332,684 301,727
soymeal hulls 26,543 15,006 26,407 17,314
lard 2,582,372 2,889,941 4,491,710 2,738,889
edible tallow 8,345,078 4,658,600 10,693,731 11,812,714
inedible tallow 29,328,505 32,112,724 10,852,561 28,162,566
ch white grease 126,772 27,426 0 0
DJ U.S. April Grain Imports-June 6
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Apr 2024—- —-Mar 2024—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 108,487 239,214 400,758 883,671
spring wheat 388,360 856,334 1,913,262 4,218,743
winter wheat 0 0 0 0
wheat/meslin 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WHEAT 496,847 1,095,548 2,314,020 5,102,414
barley 17,133,852 37,780,144 2,282,746 5,033,455
oats 1,700,114 3,748,751 1,549,911 3,417,554
corn 40,035,299 88,277,834 33,142,452 73,079,107
other corn 13,949,093 30,757,750 4,683,652 10,327,453
TOTAL CORN 53,984,392 119,035,584 37,826,104 83,406,559
DJ U.S. Apr Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-June 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Apr 2024—- —-Mar 2024—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 25,584,087 56,412,912 43,508,369 95,935,954
palm kernel oil 27,546,379 60,739,766 32,890,514 72,523,583
palm oil 160,041,119 352,890,667 138,679,314 305,787,887
soybean 52,410,681 115,565,552 136,389,749 300,739,397
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 25,218,582 55,606,973 22,602,291 49,838,052
rapeseed oil
edible 304,799,791 672,083,539 336,306,331 741,555,460
rapeseed oil,
inedible 40,591 89,503 43,158 95,163
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 6
For the week ended May 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat -229.0 616.9 18644.1 4663.5 121.9 4487.3
hrw -61.9 171.3 3541.2 963.5 6.5 1071.8
srw -32.8 96.9 4317.6 1252.7 70.1 689.3
hrs -105.7 268.0 6353.6 1526.8 45.3 1543.6
white -23.7 68.2 3905.7 810.7 0.0 1074.2
durum -4.9 12.5 526.0 109.9 0.0 108.4
corn 1180.9 113.3 51268.3 38338.8 11890.5 2911.4
soybeans 189.6 73.8 43400.6 51170.6 3423.1 1036.6
soymeal 250.2 4.1 12324.7 11147.3 2867.7 473.8
soyoil 6.0 3.5 147.3 126.2 51.6 20.6
upland cotton 138.7 54.1 12366.0 13511.1 3270.1 1781.0
pima cotton 2.0 0.0 325.7 313.2 47.5 5.1
sorghum 56.1 0.3 5279.1 1842.1 409.1 0.3
barley -0.2 0.0 11.6 12.6 5.3 14.1
rice 33.5 6.0 3228.7 1888.9 469.1 64.2
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets again yesterday as the US harvest expands and even as adverse world growing conditions are still around. There are more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas. It has also been very dry there. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 628, 595, and 569 July, with resistance at 674, 698, and 706 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 660, 647, and 640 July, with resistance at 705, 728, and 734 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 710, 700, and 691 July, and resistance is at 743, 756, and 766 July.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday despite weaker demand ideas. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop. Big storms continue to bring significant rains to crops in Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1725, 1674, and 1641 July and resistance is at 1780, 1825, and 1843 July.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on improved planting weather for the Midwest and on reports of increased competition for export sales from South America as basis levels are reported to be lower in Brazil. The market anticipated that crop condition ratings would be very high in the USDA reports yesterday. Oats were lower. The weather in the Midwest has been very wet and more rain is coming to cause planting delays but to allow for rapid development of planted crops. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather, but sellers in both countries are offering. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. Oats were higher last week.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 152,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 438, 436, and 434 July, and resistance is at 451, 454, and 461 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 350, 343, and 330 July, and resistance is at 366, 374, and 381 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower yesterday on reports of increased offers from South America. Soybean Meal was higher on spreads against Soybean Oil. The weekly export sales report showed less than expected demand for US Soybeans and the monthly crush report showed weaker demand. There were wire reports that China prices are weakening amid veery strong imports from Brazil. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil but might have to cut back on demand if the domestic market does not improve. China said that it has increased exports of Soybean Meal due to the weaker internal demand. Brazil basis levels are very strong and US products now compare favorably in price to those from South America. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rain falling in US growing areas, especially the eastern sections of the Midwest, but the weather has turned drier now and should stay that way for at least the next week. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1166, 1157, and 1146 July, and resistance is at 1192, 1203, and 1210 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 350.00 and 324.00 July. Support is at 350.00, 345.00, and 342.00 July, and resistance is at 365.00, 367.00, and 373.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4330 and 4130 July. Support is at 4310, 4270, and 4250 July, with resistance at 4530, 4690, and 4780 July.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on ideas of good export demand despite ideas of increasing production. It was closed today for a holiday. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was also lower yesterday on reports of generally good conditions in Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 614.00, 603.00, and 597.00 July, with resistance at 629.00, 634.00, and 645.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3870, 3850, and 3780 August, with resistance at 3900, 3970, and 4040 July.
Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May
June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July
July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 885.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 885.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 885.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 890.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 890.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 890.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 830.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,000.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 291.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6948)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 06
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 140,093 lots, or 6.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,639 4,651 4,624 4,644 4,669 4,637 -32 109,060 90,046
Sep-24 4,599 4,603 4,580 4,598 4,618 4,592 -26 24,672 57,255
Nov-24 4,522 4,528 4,507 4,519 4,534 4,518 -16 1,946 11,370
Jan-25 4,513 4,516 4,497 4,510 4,519 4,507 -12 3,469 18,288
Mar-25 4,506 4,506 4,491 4,500 4,513 4,498 -15 790 1,729
May-25 4,516 4,528 4,513 4,516 4,523 4,519 -4 156 718
Corn
Turnover: 424,326 lots, or 10.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,442 2,445 2,437 2,439 2,434 2,441 7 162,225 315,294
Sep-24 2,461 2,467 2,458 2,464 2,454 2,462 8 211,300 620,060
Nov-24 2,416 2,422 2,415 2,417 2,413 2,418 5 16,366 235,294
Jan-25 2,394 2,405 2,394 2,400 2,392 2,400 8 24,375 145,131
Mar-25 2,400 2,413 2,400 2,407 2,401 2,407 6 9,769 39,733
May-25 2,443 2,450 2,443 2,443 2,444 2,445 1 291 1,746
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,387,959 lots, or 48.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,367 3,387 3,354 3,384 3,369 3,374 5 22,513 80,446
Aug-24 3,469 3,487 3,446 3,486 3,459 3,474 15 15,441 84,142
Sep-24 3,490 3,503 3,463 3,502 3,480 3,486 6 1,150,190 2,011,086
Nov-24 3,506 3,513 3,475 3,509 3,494 3,497 3 25,576 403,550
Dec-24 3,458 3,467 3,431 3,455 3,452 3,451 -1 2,363 40,236
Jan-25 3,420 3,430 3,392 3,426 3,412 3,414 2 128,310 430,919
Mar-25 3,266 3,282 3,251 3,276 3,264 3,269 5 3,489 27,001
May-25 3,116 3,125 3,101 3,116 3,117 3,113 -4 40,077 147,084
Palm Oil
Turnover: 706,220 lots, or 54.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-24 – – – 7,614 7,614 7,614 0 0 646
Jul-24 7,594 7,720 7,586 7,720 7,612 7,646 34 5,914 5,804
Aug-24 7,578 7,700 7,568 7,700 7,600 7,620 20 1,258 2,238
Sep-24 7,618 7,736 7,586 7,734 7,616 7,644 28 649,008 544,341
Oct-24 7,610 7,728 7,588 7,728 7,618 7,646 28 105 498
Nov-24 7,640 7,732 7,598 7,732 7,636 7,658 22 36 621
Dec-24 7,620 7,722 7,590 7,722 7,630 7,656 26 65 389
Jan-25 7,624 7,744 7,598 7,744 7,648 7,664 16 47,669 139,725
Feb-25 7,636 7,720 7,614 7,720 7,646 7,670 24 31 135
Mar-25 7,628 7,702 7,588 7,702 7,648 7,658 10 111 1,580
Apr-25 7,620 7,666 7,612 7,666 7,638 7,634 -4 7 179
May-25 7,552 7,646 7,526 7,640 7,580 7,586 6 2,016 8,290
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 521,137 lots, or 40.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 7,702 7,830 7,702 7,828 7,720 7,764 44 5,337 13,149
Aug-24 7,782 7,888 7,762 7,886 7,782 7,814 32 4,010 26,943
Sep-24 7,838 7,938 7,812 7,936 7,840 7,864 24 452,865 714,583
Nov-24 7,844 7,942 7,822 7,942 7,856 7,876 20 822 6,415
Dec-24 7,918 7,994 7,894 7,994 7,920 7,946 26 102 1,548
Jan-25 7,886 7,978 7,862 7,974 7,904 7,912 8 52,662 187,528
Mar-25 7,692 7,742 7,654 7,734 7,706 7,704 -2 195 3,359
May-25 7,628 7,680 7,592 7,676 7,648 7,640 -8 5,144 16,031
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.