Softs Report 06/03/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week and prices are back at the lower end of a trading range despite signs of improving demand. The weekly export sales report showed improving demand for US Cotton. USDA said that 60% of the US crop was rated good to excellent on Tuesday afternoon. The weekly export sales report showed much improved sales last week. Wire reports indicate that speculators were covering short positions. Big storms are reported in Texas that could damage crops. There are also some big problems with too much rain in the Delta and Southeast in recent days. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, and demand for Cotton in world markets has started to increase.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 75.90, 73.70, and 72.00 July, with resistance of 83.80, 84.40 and 86.20 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 275,358
: Positions :
: 33,506 53,922 72,014 74,366 118,616 82,012 17,748 261,897 262,300: 13,461 13,057
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,085) :
: 1,954 -5,849 -304 -97 8,184 -691 -11 862 2,020: 223 -934
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 19.6 26.2 27.0 43.1 29.8 6.4 95.1 95.3: 4.9 4.7
: Total Traders: 311 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 99 80 99 63 66 49 25 260 226:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower to limit down yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to profit taking, but the market remains well supported longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies and very hot weather in Florida. The weekly charts show a key reversal down. Retail prices in May hit a new record high of $9.69 a gallon, 9% higher than last year. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 418.00, 406.00, and 389.00 July, with resistance at 452.00, 477.00, and 495.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 16,017 :
: Positions :
: 1,708 9,493 966 0 263 4,020 403 137 2,172 492 3,625 :
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 :
: 203 787 34 0 52 386 11 29 349 77 470 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.7 59.3 6.0 0.0 1.6 25.1 2.5 0.9 13.6 3.1 22.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 64 :
: 7 7 5 0 . 24 . . 16 7 11 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York was a little higher and London closed higher last week on new commercial and speculative trading on ideas of reduced offers of Robusta and on forecasts for another couple of weeks of dry weather in Vietnam. Much of the weekly gains were given back on Friday, but the close was still positive. There were also reports of poor Robusta yields in Brazil during the harvest. Weekly chart tends turned up with the price action, while the price action on Friday left daily charts showing mixed trends. Ideas of less production in Vietnam are driving the rally. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, buts in small amounts, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. Exports from Brazil have remained strong.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 220.67 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 212.00, 208.00, and 204.00 July, and resistance is at 228.00, 238.00 and 241.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3990, 3890, and 3740 July, with resistance at 4390, 4480, and 4540 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 291,033
: Positions :
: 58,300 14,513 97,326 62,038 158,316 63,486 14,250 281,149 284,406: 9,883 6,627
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 (Change in open interest: 14,813) :
: 2,630 220 9,110 1,687 5,562 1,319 230 14,746 15,122: 68 -308
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.0 5.0 33.4 21.3 54.4 21.8 4.9 96.6 97.7: 3.4 2.3
: Total Traders: 386 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 121 72 115 103 118 50 21 332 279:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed a little lower last week and the charts show that both markets remain in a trading range. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks amid dry harvest weather. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 July and resistance is at 1890, 1920, and 1950 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 536.00, 538.00, and 522.00 August, with resistance at 555.00, 566.00, and 571.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,035,917
: Positions :
: 85,978 154,106 241,534 391,342 475,759 250,010 84,114 968,865 955,513: 67,052 80,403
: :
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 (Change in open interest: 19,100) :
: 2,735 1,373 15,395 -2,741 -1,232 535 2,346 15,923 17,882: 3,177 1,218
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 14.9 23.3 37.8 45.9 24.1 8.1 93.5 92.2: 6.5 7.8
: :
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 65 79 72 68 42 24 213 197:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were higher last week and trends are up for the short term on what appeared to be some speculative short covering. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed Support is at 7870, 7370, and 6770 July, with resistance at 9550, 9600, and 10210 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6610, 6160, and 5660 July, with resistance at 7930, 8190, and 8250 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 271,237
: Positions :
: 22,552 12,181 136,685 67,190 100,361 33,005 15,927 259,432 265,154: 11,805 6,083
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 (Change in open interest: 24,804) :
: 1,458 -245 14,491 3,636 7,168 5,254 3,463 24,840 24,877: -36 -74
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 4.5 50.4 24.8 37.0 12.2 5.9 95.6 97.8: 4.4 2.2
: Total Traders: 175 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 42 68 40 35 29 16 161 130:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322