Grains Report 06/03/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets last week as adverse world growing conditions appear to be part of the price now and could be moderating in the next week or so, anyway. Russian analytical services cut production estimates over the weekend to between 80 and 82 million tons, from over 85 million previously. There were no more reports of hot temperatures coming this week to Russian growing areas, but rain ia also now in the forecasts. It has also been very dry there. In addition, Ukraine sent drones to several Russian ports, including grains ports, to disrupt the export pace and cost Russia money. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 670, 664, and 658 July, with resistance at 706, 715, and 722 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 685, 660, and 640 July, with resistance at 734, 740, and 746 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 721, 713, and 706 July, and resistance is at 768, 770, and 789 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 516,145
: Positions :
: 50,988 119,626 177,658 86,355 124,092 165,899 51,372 480,901 472,748: 35,245 43,397
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,070) :
: 821 1,487 -3,536 8,097 6,240 -5,824 -3,576 -442 615: 1,512 455
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 23.2 34.4 16.7 24.0 32.1 10.0 93.2 91.6: 6.8 8.4
: Total Traders: 372 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 104 127 92 104 49 33 306 301:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 282,175
: Positions :
: 29,134 62,335 76,286 64,805 98,116 95,251 20,167 265,475 256,904: 16,700 25,272
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 (Change in open interest: 8,602) :
: 4,738 -924 2,323 764 5,334 1,226 977 9,051 7,710: -448 892
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.3 22.1 27.0 23.0 34.8 33.8 7.1 94.1 91.0: 5.9 9.0
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 48 51 60 69 80 40 22 191 181:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 58,904 :
: Positions :
: 25,833 35,604 4,022 441 210 11,559 5,819 3,126 2,031 876 2,634 :
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 :
: 2,759 5,676 31 56 42 1,414 -147 21 -76 632 178 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.9 60.4 6.8 0.7 0.4 19.6 9.9 5.3 3.4 1.5 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 103 :
: 53 44 5 . . 13 13 11 7 4 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mostly higher last week, but July was lower on speculative selling tied to weaker demand ideas and the weekly charts showed the weakness in July. Most of the weakness was in the front month due to many buyers holding off making purchases until the cheaper new crop Rice becomes available in a few months. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop. Big storms continue to bring significant and potentially damaging rains to crops in Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1750, 1725, and 1674 July and resistance is at 1825, 1843, and 1859 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,443 :
: Positions :
: 4,153 8,068 200 0 0 1,642 592 88 1,641 49 552 :
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 :
: 215 -12 12 0 0 -255 187 10 88 14 -96 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 39.8 77.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 15.7 5.7 0.8 15.7 0.5 5.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54 :
: 19 19 . 0 0 10 . . 10 4 7 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week on forecasts for improved planting weather for the Midwest and on reports of increased competition for export sales from South America as basis levels are reported to be lower in Brazil. Oats were higher. The weather in the Midwest has been very wet and more rain is coming to cause planting delays but to allow for rapid development of planted crops. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather, but sellers in both countries are offering. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. Oats were higher last week.
Overnight News: Spain boght 110,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 444, 438, and 432 July, and resistance is at 461, 467, and 475 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 372, 362, and 357 July, and resistance is at 390, 403, and 409 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,963,843
: Positions :
: 160,373 306,614 606,095 515,535 622,094 491,407 193,059 1,773,410 1,727,862: 190,433 235,981
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 (Change in open interest: -29,561) :
: 3,551 16,916 -21,784 12,662 -20,319 -22,057 -5,931 -27,628 -31,118: -1,932 1,557
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 15.6 30.9 26.3 31.7 25.0 9.8 90.3 88.0: 9.7 12.0
: Total Traders: 775 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 138 146 202 345 352 52 38 644 647:
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SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower last week on reports of increased offers from South America. Soybean Oil closed a little higher. The weekly export sales report showed less than expected demand for US Soybeans. There were wire reports that China price are weakening amid veery strong imports from Brazil. Reports indicate that China remains an active buyer of Soybeans in Brazil, but might have to cut back on demand if the domestic market does not improve. Brazil basis levels are very strong and US products now compare favorably in price to those from South America. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling in US growing areas, especially the eastern sections of the Midwest. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1197, 1185, and 1178 July, and resistance is at 1224, 1256, and 1260 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 361.00, 359.00, and 350.00 July, and resistance is at 391.00, 394.00, and 396.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4470, 4470, and 4420 July, with resistance at 4690, 4780, and 4880 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,007,496
: Positions :
: 68,765 126,419 296,980 373,989 447,598 206,019 51,907 945,752 922,904: 61,744 84,592
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,445) :
: 7,128 -4,188 -5,484 10,817 16,437 -8,918 -7,467 3,543 -702: -2,098 2,147
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.8 12.5 29.5 37.1 44.4 20.4 5.2 93.9 91.6: 6.1 8.4
: Total Traders: 565 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 157 181 198 213 50 28 469 473:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 597,248
: Positions :
: 57,007 124,041 137,083 196,519 272,322 172,857 38,205 563,467 571,651: 33,781 25,598
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 (Change in open interest: 8,642) :
: 1,528 -4,573 -1,906 4,021 15,269 5,897 2,020 9,539 10,810: -896 -2,167
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 20.8 23.0 32.9 45.6 28.9 6.4 94.3 95.7: 5.7 4.3
: Total Traders: 333 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 88 97 100 94 46 24 269 254:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 536,628
: Positions :
: 119,148 44,334 117,647 111,353 326,282 132,709 18,882 480,856 507,145: 55,771 29,483
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 (Change in open interest: 7,013) :
: 11,850 -6,414 -1,423 -1,362 16,266 -791 -1,250 8,274 7,178: -1,261 -165
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.2 8.3 21.9 20.8 60.8 24.7 3.5 89.6 94.5: 10.4 5.5
: Total Traders: 339 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 71 94 109 124 42 21 278 268:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on ideas of good export demand despite ideas of increasing production. It was closed today for a holiday. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, but the trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was also lower yesterday on reports of generally good conditions in Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 655.00, 646.00, and 639.00 July, with resistance at 675.00, 678.00, and 684.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3970, 3930, and 3870 August, with resistance at 4210, 4230, and 4280 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 49,806 :
: Positions :
: 38,926 15,150 1,050 18,410 50 480 3,430 80 1,540 5,006 7,670 :
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 :
: 756 -500 0 820 0 0 620 0 300 116 60 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 78.2 30.4 2.1 37.0 0.1 1.0 6.9 0.2 3.1 10.1 15.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 8 10 . 4 . . . . . 7 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 28, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 264,383 :
: Positions :
: 191,975 136,146 5,288 11,166 1,367 8,952 59,441 34,148 10,485 9,885 10,203 :
: Changes from: May 21, 2024 :
: -4,820 1,572 76 1,043 -292 1,878 -5,104 776 -731 -615 725 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 72.6 51.5 2.0 4.2 0.5 3.4 22.5 12.9 4.0 3.7 3.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 320 :
: 60 61 4 5 6 35 57 28 56 75 50 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 116,669 lots, or 5.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 4,652 4,668 4,641 4,649 4,655 4,656 1 85,398 81,511
Sep-24 4,610 4,629 4,600 4,605 4,613 4,615 2 23,945 52,078
Nov-24 4,561 4,561 4,538 4,538 4,555 4,550 -5 2,649 9,431
Jan-25 4,551 4,552 4,530 4,530 4,547 4,541 -6 4,099 15,950
Mar-25 4,544 4,545 4,527 4,527 4,541 4,533 -8 415 1,624
May-25 4,544 4,544 4,530 4,530 4,537 4,532 -5 163 563
Corn
Turnover: 460,478 lots, or 11.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 2,436 2,443 2,434 2,438 2,434 2,437 3 246,533 397,339
Sep-24 2,457 2,466 2,457 2,458 2,457 2,461 4 157,620 566,544
Nov-24 2,421 2,426 2,416 2,417 2,418 2,421 3 24,395 232,412
Jan-25 2,408 2,413 2,398 2,400 2,404 2,404 0 25,235 160,799
Mar-25 2,420 2,423 2,408 2,410 2,415 2,415 0 6,478 39,219
May-25 2,458 2,463 2,451 2,451 2,458 2,456 -2 217 1,354
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,468,037 lots, or 50.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 3,391 3,401 3,334 3,348 3,373 3,359 -14 38,412 91,277
Aug-24 3,485 3,492 3,421 3,433 3,467 3,454 -13 7,842 85,214
Sep-24 3,508 3,509 3,437 3,447 3,485 3,466 -19 1,228,971 1,973,553
Nov-24 3,526 3,530 3,463 3,473 3,506 3,494 -12 30,276 418,231
Dec-24 3,488 3,488 3,433 3,439 3,471 3,450 -21 1,354 40,475
Jan-25 3,447 3,450 3,390 3,397 3,434 3,412 -22 134,119 407,844
Mar-25 3,306 3,306 3,248 3,250 3,289 3,270 -19 4,496 28,531
May-25 3,153 3,158 3,122 3,124 3,147 3,137 -10 22,567 121,061
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,201,224 lots, or 93.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-24 7,378 8,328 7,378 7,680 7,812 7,928 116 8 646
Jul-24 7,888 7,926 7,608 7,614 7,794 7,718 -76 12,359 7,247
Aug-24 7,850 7,910 7,598 7,606 7,756 7,704 -52 2,571 2,136
Sep-24 7,922 7,956 7,638 7,652 7,818 7,780 -38 1,064,074 562,932
Oct-24 7,908 7,938 7,646 7,652 7,804 7,766 -38 203 518
Nov-24 7,906 7,932 7,658 7,664 7,826 7,800 -26 93 626
Dec-24 7,914 7,938 7,668 7,672 7,816 7,780 -36 167 384
Jan-25 7,934 7,980 7,676 7,696 7,860 7,812 -48 117,850 132,583
Feb-25 7,948 7,966 7,678 7,698 7,846 7,746 -100 35 133
Mar-25 7,948 7,960 7,682 7,708 7,864 7,812 -52 231 1,348
Apr-25 7,934 7,942 7,676 7,704 7,888 7,820 -68 71 179
May-25 7,870 7,870 7,618 7,656 7,812 7,694 -118 3,562 2,166
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 832,530 lots, or 66.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-24 8,002 8,018 7,756 7,774 7,952 7,832 -120 9,873 14,153
Aug-24 8,092 8,114 7,830 7,848 8,030 7,930 -100 1,706 27,361
Sep-24 8,154 8,168 7,876 7,902 8,090 7,990 -100 709,005 752,510
Nov-24 8,156 8,178 7,906 7,924 8,100 8,006 -94 1,114 6,509
Dec-24 8,246 8,246 7,976 7,988 8,172 8,070 -102 116 1,539
Jan-25 8,212 8,232 7,938 7,970 8,156 8,046 -110 103,432 184,432
Mar-25 8,010 8,010 7,542 7,776 7,958 7,810 -148 437 3,298
May-25 7,924 7,948 7,696 7,728 7,874 7,774 -100 6,847 8,742
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322