Softs Report 05/17/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday on positive weekly export sales and ideas that the market was oversold. Trends are turning mixed on the charts. The weekly crop progress report showed good planting progress and conditions are good in the southern US this week for growth. Some big storms are forecast for near the Gulf Coast, but rains farther inland should be more moderate. USDA increased production for the coming year and also increased demand and ending stocks. The report was bearish for futures. Demand remains a problem. The export sales report showed poor sales once again and demand is not likely to improve with the Dollar stronger. USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets but did cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the weekly charts. Demand has been weaker so far this year. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 73.70, 73.40, and 72.80 July, with resistance of 79.80, 80.70 and 81.40 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher and at new highs for the move yesterday on follow through speculative buying from the USDA reports on Friday and fears of less production in coming reports. USDA said that Florida production was estimated at 17,8 million boxes, down 5% from the last estimate but still 13% above the production of last year. Florida early and mid season and navel production was left at 6.80 million boxes, unchanged from the previous estimate, but Valencia production was cut 8% to 11 million boxes. Nielsen is reporting less retail demand due to the higher prices and volumes sold at retail have sagged. The reduced production appears to be at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 421.00 July. Support is at 406.00, 388.00, and 382.00 July, with resistance at 438.00, 444.00, and 450.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower, but London closed higher on reports of increased offers of Coffee, mostly Robusta from Brazil and in part from Vietnam, into world cash markets. Reports of very good rains are heard from Vietnam after a very dry period there, so production prospects are thought to be stronger. There were indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. Exports from Brazil have remained strong. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is continuing and better production conditions are reported in Vietnam. Roasters and other buyers are pulling back from the market in hopes of lower prices down the road.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 196.45 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,212 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 201.00 July. Support is at 190.00, 187.00, and 183.00 July, and resistance is at 200.00, 205.00 and 208.00 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 3370, 3340, and 3330 July, with resistance at 3770, 3810, and 3950 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed lower yesterday and made new lows for the move. Trends remain down on the daily charts. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer and production data released a few weeks ago by CONAB indicated that the cane harvest could be less, but that Sugar production could be higher. Harvest weather is called good in center-south Brazil. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1730 July. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 July and resistance is at 1900, 1950, and 2000 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 528.00 August. Support is at 526.00, 520.00, and 514.00 August, with resistance at 542.00, 555.00, and 566.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday. Trends are mixed on the daily charts as futures held the low end of the recent trading range, but the market acts as if there is more down side price action coming. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tig8ht supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 905 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives Support is at 6990, 6420, and 5910 July, with resistance at 8390, 9080, and 9490 May. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 5860, 5230, and 4790 July, with resistance at 7000, 7290, and 7970 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322