Grains Report 05/17/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little lower yesterday after more reports of frosts and freezing temperatures in Russian growing areas. Reports indicate that Russia will still have plenty of Wheat for export in the coming year. USDA issued its latest reports Friday and included a field survey of Winter Wheat production. Winter Wheat production was estimated at 1.288 billion bushels which was a little below the average trade estimate. Ending stocks for Wheat were also below the trade estimate at 766 million bushels. The Kansas Wheat Tour has been this week and has found the best crop in five years with yields over 43 bushels per acre. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed improved sales. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 699 July. Support is at 647, 632, and 610 July, with resistance at 700, 706, and 712 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 665, 646, and 640 July, with resistance at 710, 716, and 722 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 747 July. Support is at 721, 716, and 711 July, and resistance is at 762, 758, and 764 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed near unchanged in consolidation trading. The futures market overall remained in a short term trading range. The USDA export sales report indicated moderate sales. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Some more big storms are coming to this region in the next few days. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the old crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1827, 1785, and 1750 July and resistance is at 1945, 1955, and 1972 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower with Corn the leader of the downside moves yesterday. The USDA reports are helping to support futures as are ideas of better demand. USDA estimated high production at 14.860 billion bushels, but ending stocks were a little below trade expectations at 2.102 billion bushels. USDQ anticipates better demand for US Corn with the cheaper prices seen now. USDA made no real changes to South American production estimates. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 465, 454, and 450 July, and resistance is at 477, 483, and 490 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 428 July. Support is at 383, 376, and 370 July, and resistance is at 403, 419, and 430 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed mixed to mostly lower. Soybean Oil was higher on spreads against Soybean Meal. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling in US growing areas, especially the eastern sections of the Midwest. USDA released its first estimates for the coming crop year and held production potential at high levels at 4.450 billion bushels. Export and domestic demand were increased but ending stocks also were estimated higher qt 450 million bushels. Futures rallied anyway and the rally on what appeared to be negative news can often mean that higher prices are coming this week and for the next couple of weeks. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1204, 1192, and 1187 July, and resistance is at 1250, 1256, and 1260 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 366.00, 361.00, and 350.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 388.00, and 390.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4230, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4530, 4610, and 4690 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on Chicago price action and despite news of weaker exports.. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was higher despite weaker prices in world vegetable oils markets as the market pays attention to Chicago price action and the flooding in Brazil. Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 688.00 and 723.00 July. Support is at 647.00, 639.00, and 616.00 July, with resistance at 672.00, 679.00, and 589.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3650 July. Support is at 3740, 3700, and 3660 July, with resistance at 3870, 3930, and 4020 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 870.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 870.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 865.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 875.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 875.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 870.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 880.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 890.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 827.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 3,950.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 290.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6845)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 126,567 lots, or .59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 – – – 4,672 4,650 4,672 22 0 0
Jul-24 4,623 4,677 4,623 4,669 4,630 4,645 15 97,998 107,297
Sep-24 4,626 4,666 4,617 4,660 4,622 4,638 16 23,733 39,812
Nov-24 4,586 4,620 4,584 4,616 4,589 4,603 14 1,392 6,116
Jan-25 4,576 4,612 4,574 4,606 4,578 4,590 12 3,136 9,338
Mar-25 4,575 4,604 4,569 4,602 4,574 4,587 13 308 764
Corn
Turnover: 643,208 lots, or 15.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,435 2,437 2,419 2,419 2,426 2,402 -24 204 0
Jul-24 2,465 2,474 2,455 2,459 2,464 2,464 0 390,843 639,233
Sep-24 2,495 2,502 2,481 2,484 2,491 2,490 -1 161,003 470,367
Nov-24 2,445 2,450 2,432 2,433 2,438 2,442 4 45,210 218,771
Jan-25 2,426 2,432 2,418 2,420 2,423 2,425 2 29,018 116,857
Mar-25 2,430 2,435 2,420 2,421 2,426 2,429 3 16,930 25,660
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,639,489 lots, or 58.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,476 3,508 3,476 3,508 3,455 3,427 -28 759 0
Jul-24 3,463 3,508 3,455 3,503 3,477 3,483 6 45,279 133,105
Aug-24 3,549 3,595 3,539 3,587 3,561 3,566 5 7,901 65,656
Sep-24 3,553 3,600 3,542 3,592 3,562 3,571 9 1,393,390 2,308,938
Nov-24 3,562 3,606 3,550 3,598 3,567 3,576 9 59,520 345,441
Dec-24 3,540 3,579 3,527 3,571 3,543 3,550 7 4,646 37,914
Jan-25 3,481 3,529 3,468 3,520 3,485 3,501 16 119,185 331,300
Mar-25 3,293 3,336 3,289 3,330 3,301 3,314 13 8,809 33,424
Palm Oil
Turnover: 849,746 lots, or 64.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,700 7,700 7,700 7,700 7,580 7,744 164 10 0
Jun-24 7,548 7,688 7,534 7,678 7,584 7,628 44 3,116 2,822
Jul-24 7,476 7,634 7,474 7,626 7,518 7,566 48 7,998 7,858
Aug-24 7,472 7,642 7,466 7,642 7,496 7,538 42 1,268 1,401
Sep-24 7,462 7,646 7,456 7,638 7,506 7,550 44 792,622 568,956
Oct-24 7,470 7,642 7,460 7,634 7,470 7,566 96 303 480
Nov-24 7,448 7,638 7,448 7,634 7,494 7,550 56 67 635
Dec-24 7,460 7,638 7,460 7,628 7,490 7,552 62 45 505
Jan-25 7,460 7,640 7,452 7,638 7,482 7,548 66 43,911 102,751
Feb-25 7,456 7,622 7,452 7,618 7,480 7,546 66 43 123
Mar-25 7,462 7,620 7,462 7,620 7,476 7,560 84 306 1,551
Apr-25 7,506 7,650 7,500 7,638 7,522 7,580 58 57 168
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 718,518 lots, or 56.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 – – – 7,676 7,688 7,676 -12 0 0
Jul-24 7,712 7,856 7,698 7,838 7,712 7,788 76 4,724 18,132
Aug-24 7,780 7,938 7,766 7,928 7,766 7,834 68 951 16,444
Sep-24 7,810 7,972 7,792 7,966 7,804 7,868 64 661,487 794,507
Nov-24 7,834 7,980 7,818 7,980 7,830 7,896 66 3,206 7,324
Dec-24 7,882 8,042 7,882 8,042 7,890 7,932 42 74 1,904
Jan-25 7,890 8,052 7,878 8,046 7,888 7,954 66 47,483 147,686
Mar-25 7,798 7,956 7,786 7,948 7,782 7,874 92 593 3,485
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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