Softs Report 05/06/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week after making new lows for the move and trends remain down in the market. Demand remains a problem. The export sales report showed poor sales once again and demand is not likely to improve with the Dollar stronger. USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets, but did cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the weekly charts. Demand has been weaker so far this year. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were post4ed for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7380 July. Support is at 74.90, 74.00, and 73.40 July, with resistance of 79.70, 80.70 and 81.40 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 246,636
: Positions :
: 35,803 44,033 56,977 59,708 119,889 80,113 11,348 232,601 232,248: 14,035 14,388
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 2,741) :
: -4,071 5,723 1,187 5,166 -7,721 683 1,367 2,965 556: -224 2,185
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.5 17.9 23.1 24.2 48.6 32.5 4.6 94.3 94.2: 5.7 5.8
: Total Traders: 309 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 82 100 64 67 46 22 259 223:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week and held the trading range once again. Reports of tight supplies are around. Nielsen is reporting less retail demand due to the higher prices and volumes sold at retail have sagged. Futures still appear to have topped out and a range trade has been seen. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 354.00, 350.00, and 347.00 July, with resistance at 380.00, 391.00, and 392.00Julay.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 10,217 :
: Positions :
: 1,756 5,555 606 0 100 2,605 1,099 8 1,592 828 1,468 :
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 :
: 24 435 -8 0 11 -145 -78 -1 304 3 -79 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.2 54.4 5.9 0.0 1.0 25.5 10.8 0.1 15.6 8.1 14.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :
: 7 8 . 0 . 18 6 . 8 10 7 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed much lower last week and gave up the up trends as offers appeared to increase in the cash market in Brazil and Vietnam. The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market was the main feature, but less offers of Arabica are also noted. This appears to be changing. There were some indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee, Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is continuing and offers for all Coffee increased last week in part on weakness in the Real. Roasters and other buyers are pulling back from the market in hopes of lower prices down the road.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 205.50 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 59 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,018 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 201.00 July. Support is at 201.00, 199.00, and 193.00 July, and resistance is at 213.00, 220.00 and 228.00 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 3620 July. Support is at 3400, 3370, and 3330 July, with resistance at 3770, 3810, and 3950 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 289,477
: Positions :
: 68,802 19,826 85,802 62,429 165,610 63,431 12,779 280,465 284,018: 9,012 5,459
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -1,141) :
: -238 1,490 -643 -395 -3,683 -127 1,729 -1,404 -1,107: 263 -34
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.8 6.8 29.6 21.6 57.2 21.9 4.4 96.9 98.1: 3.1 1.9
: Total Traders: 413 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 140 70 112 101 128 52 22 339 296:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London held to a two week long trading range. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer and production data released a few weeks ago by CONAB indicated that the cane harvest could be less, but that Sugar production could be higher. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1890, 1860, and 1830 July and resistance is at 2050, 2100, and 2100 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 560.00, 554.00, and 548.00 August, with resistance at 579.00, 590.00, and 600.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 983,132
: Positions :
: 85,848 123,532 205,035 379,583 497,888 246,238 79,528 916,705 905,982: 66,427 77,150
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 7,219) :
: -5,689 3,970 -85 7,746 -2,972 7,904 4,666 9,876 5,578: -2,657 1,641
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.7 12.6 20.9 38.6 50.6 25.0 8.1 93.2 92.2: 6.8 7.8
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 50 61 74 67 61 43 20 197 182:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were sharply lower last week as the rally has collapsed. Trends are down on the daily charts. It seemed that speculators were liquidating long positions. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tig8ht supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 904 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives Support is at 7210, 7020, and 6300 July, with resistance at 8700, 9600, and 10210 May. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 6330, 5960, and 5230 July, with resistance at 7220, 8200, and 8900 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 268,254
: Positions :
: 23,097 15,816 137,461 66,937 95,972 29,086 12,139 256,582 261,388: 11,672 6,866
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -19,713) :
: -3,441 -107 -13,083 -367 -6,594 -1,610 479 -18,501 -19,305: -1,212 -409
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.6 5.9 51.2 25.0 35.8 10.8 4.5 95.6 97.4: 4.4 2.6
: Total Traders: 186 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 42 72 40 33 30 16 167 135:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322