Grains Report 05/06/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL May May 07, 2024 37 May 01, 2024
ROUGH RICE May May 07, 2024 6 Apr 30, 2024
SOYBEAN May May 07, 2024 226 May 02, 2024
WHEAT May May 07, 2024 102 May 01, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher last week to close with mixed trends in Winter Wheat markets. Trends are up in Minneapolis. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again and sales are not likely to improve anytime soon with the Dollar strength. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 614, 596, and 593 July, with resistance at 637, 638, and 655 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 637, 625, and 613 July, with resistance at 663, 669, and 675 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 729 and 747 July. Support is at 705, 697, and 686 July, and resistance is at 732, 738, and 746 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 423,620
: Positions :
: 39,176 125,075 123,384 68,128 92,658 163,830 44,824 394,518 385,941: 29,102 37,679
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -29,724) :
: -1,709 -21,617 -10,998 -4,384 11,603 -8,563 -11,343 -25,654 -32,356: -4,070 2,632
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.2 29.5 29.1 16.1 21.9 38.7 10.6 93.1 91.1: 6.9 8.9
: Total Traders: 341 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 121 112 75 81 47 33 265 277:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 254,177
: Positions :
: 19,644 67,646 64,280 59,100 80,943 95,701 19,208 238,725 232,077: 15,452 22,101
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -30,845) :
: -3,959 -16,339 -5,365 -9,614 897 -7,379 -11,119 -26,317 -31,927: -4,528 1,083
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.7 26.6 25.3 23.3 31.8 37.7 7.6 93.9 91.3: 6.1 8.7
: Total Traders: 226 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 41 59 61 62 69 38 22 178 178:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 52,209 :
: Positions :
: 23,977 17,951 2,809 268 397 9,125 18,419 2,473 2,273 164 2,262 :
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 :
: -10,420 3,540 115 267 -96 239 -15,023 -606 279 -552 -1,927 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 45.9 34.4 5.4 0.5 0.8 17.5 35.3 4.7 4.4 0.3 4.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 99 :
: 44 31 5 . . 14 19 13 7 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed slightly lower last week after a week of big highs and lows and wide ranges of trading. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the cold crop and the new crop. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1827, 1785, and 1750 July and resistance is at 1915, 1955, and 1972 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,577 :
: Positions :
: 3,353 7,158 169 0 0 2,392 463 7 950 172 625 :
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 :
: -172 740 169 0 0 460 -188 2 -124 -206 -278 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 35.0 74.7 1.8 0.0 0.0 25.0 4.8 0.1 9.9 1.8 6.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 19 19 . 0 0 12 . . 8 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher last week on reports of adverse production conditions in South America. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 470 July. Support is at 460, 454, and 450 July, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 483 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 378, 362, and 356 July, and resistance is at 390, 396, and 402 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,805,673
: Positions :
: 121,098 351,350 539,333 474,852 518,096 483,855 193,289 1,619,139 1,602,068: 186,534 203,605
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -163,684) :
: 75 -9,379 -84,371 -53,973 -37,897 -8,930 -21,188 -147,200 -152,836: -16,484 -10,849
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.7 19.5 29.9 26.3 28.7 26.8 10.7 89.7 88.7: 10.3 11.3
: Total Traders: 751 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 124 155 178 326 326 52 39 597 615:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher and the products closed mixed last week, with Soybean Meal higher and Soybean Oil lower. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling on unharvested crops in southern Brazil. Rains up to 400 mm were reported by newswires. Ideas of less bio fuels demand have hurt Soybean Oil prices. Some selling from Brazil and Argentina was noted on the early rally attempt last week. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market. Funds remain large shorts in the market.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 122,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1248 July. Support is at 1192, 1181, and 1167 July, and resistance is at 1216, 1231, and 1240 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 361.00, 350.00, and 347.00 July, and resistance is at 376.00, 382.00, and 385.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4260, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4410, 4460, and 4530 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 911,168
: Positions :
: 43,685 205,757 249,149 368,028 316,527 191,427 71,839 852,289 843,273: 58,879 67,895
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -146,270) :
: 2,962 1,011 -93,105 -50,885 -46,866 -1,134 -5,119 -142,163 -144,080: -4,107 -2,190
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.8 22.6 27.3 40.4 34.7 21.0 7.9 93.5 92.5: 6.5 7.5
: Total Traders: 524 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 155 175 167 176 48 30 420 442:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 592,947
: Positions :
: 57,580 145,960 140,380 192,796 234,691 168,930 41,290 559,686 562,320: 33,261 30,627
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -31,450) :
: -3,175 17,478 -23,591 -9,164 -23,438 1,779 -3,733 -34,151 -33,284: 2,701 1,834
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 24.6 23.7 32.5 39.6 28.5 7.0 94.4 94.8: 5.6 5.2
: Total Traders: 348 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 101 99 91 92 44 22 265 264:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 498,943
: Positions :
: 86,714 80,448 104,351 131,206 259,531 129,395 25,816 451,666 470,146: 47,277 28,797
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -44,738) :
: 9,842 -9,307 -26,274 -24,377 -1,730 -271 -5,087 -41,080 -42,397: -3,658 -2,341
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.4 16.1 20.9 26.3 52.0 25.9 5.2 90.5 94.2: 9.5 5.8
: Total Traders: 345 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 89 94 117 109 43 23 285 260:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on weaker bio fuels demand but found some support late in the week on reports of strong demand from India and reports of reduced production. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was higher despite weaker prices in world vegetable oils markets. Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 639.00, 616.00, and 603.00 July, with resistance at 650.00, 52.00, and 560.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3790 and 3650 July. Support is at 3780, 3740, and 3700 July, with resistance at 3930, 4020, and 4040 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 47,970 :
: Positions :
: 38,940 14,710 1,140 16,610 70 680 3,830 200 760 6,570 5,970 :
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 :
: 1,010 -210 0 1,800 -160 -120 0 0 120 -380 -190 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.2 30.7 2.4 34.6 0.1 1.4 8.0 0.4 1.6 13.7 12.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 9 10 . 4 . . . . . 8 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 249,052 :
: Positions :
: 204,067 92,606 4,206 7,063 1,925 3,749 110,863 18,432 9,139 10,285 6,126 :
: Changes from: April 23, 2024 :
: 8,136 1,112 -231 1,726 -827 -1,958 1,291 -4,546 -534 1,122 -1,144 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.9 37.2 1.7 2.8 0.8 1.5 44.5 7.4 3.7 4.1 2.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 313 :
: 65 55 . 6 6 12 88 20 61 56 42 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 857.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 847.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 852.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 862.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 855.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 852.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 857.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 882.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 792.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 3,940.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 291.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.737)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 86,199 lots, or 4.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,696 4,700 4,650 4,665 4,664 4,673 9 59 891
Jul-24 4,671 4,702 4,655 4,660 4,661 4,679 18 67,685 94,330
Sep-24 4,656 4,692 4,650 4,655 4,646 4,670 24 15,826 36,254
Nov-24 4,600 4,634 4,594 4,606 4,596 4,614 18 911 4,607
Jan-25 4,603 4,620 4,581 4,590 4,582 4,600 18 1,631 6,109
Mar-25 4,582 4,610 4,575 4,583 4,570 4,592 22 87 411
Corn
Turnover: 448,634 lots, or 10.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,371 2,383 2,361 2,375 2,384 2,372 -12 1,446 54,023
Jul-24 2,395 2,412 2,388 2,409 2,386 2,400 14 329,046 745,055
Sep-24 2,415 2,430 2,410 2,426 2,408 2,420 12 88,276 388,484
Nov-24 2,368 2,382 2,367 2,379 2,368 2,375 7 13,853 65,958
Jan-25 2,365 2,366 2,356 2,365 2,359 2,360 1 14,032 102,202
Mar-25 2,375 2,375 2,363 2,372 2,368 2,369 1 1,981 3,036
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,464,032 lots, or 50.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,310 3,397 3,310 3,374 3,277 3,381 104 7,052 16,273
Jul-24 3,430 3,433 3,388 3,393 3,307 3,403 96 73,964 148,844
Aug-24 3,481 3,493 3,456 3,473 3,381 3,478 97 12,224 60,714
Sep-24 3,474 3,494 3,454 3,475 3,384 3,478 94 1,202,584 2,147,464
Nov-24 3,456 3,474 3,441 3,456 3,375 3,463 88 32,927 78,277
Dec-24 3,440 3,485 3,440 3,460 3,396 3,475 79 8,655 11,685
Jan-25 3,440 3,448 3,411 3,418 3,358 3,428 70 121,807 337,663
Mar-25 3,290 3,303 3,267 3,268 3,236 3,281 45 4,819 10,689
Palm Oil
Turnover: 531,656 lots, or 39.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,714 7,800 7,700 7,770 7,772 7,732 -40 469 2,533
Jun-24 7,490 7,592 7,462 7,516 7,558 7,518 -40 6,322 10,694
Jul-24 7,400 7,514 7,392 7,446 7,458 7,442 -16 3,582 5,270
Aug-24 7,412 7,468 7,360 7,418 7,408 7,416 8 269 1,074
Sep-24 7,388 7,454 7,330 7,408 7,390 7,396 6 492,049 501,841
Oct-24 7,396 7,436 7,328 7,404 7,378 7,372 -6 134 484
Nov-24 7,420 7,424 7,328 7,396 7,402 7,358 -44 59 763
Dec-24 7,404 7,418 7,324 7,390 7,338 7,348 10 39 529
Jan-25 7,368 7,420 7,316 7,380 7,362 7,370 8 28,603 85,776
Feb-25 7,344 7,388 7,314 7,368 7,360 7,358 -2 15 275
Mar-25 7,346 7,412 7,312 7,392 7,374 7,374 0 112 1,822
Apr-25 7,362 7,384 7,362 7,384 7,398 7,372 -26 3 38
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 409,671 lots, or 31.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,602 7,950 7,500 7,650 7,610 7,596 -14 162 1,807
Jul-24 7,578 7,690 7,578 7,646 7,590 7,646 56 4,419 21,654
Aug-24 7,680 7,702 7,626 7,672 7,612 7,666 54 434 15,348
Sep-24 7,650 7,730 7,648 7,696 7,638 7,694 56 376,696 713,794
Nov-24 7,674 7,742 7,670 7,712 7,660 7,706 46 903 8,374
Dec-24 7,748 7,790 7,718 7,764 7,704 7,768 64 120 1,796
Jan-25 7,686 7,768 7,684 7,732 7,674 7,730 56 26,757 115,171
Mar-25 7,580 7,664 7,580 7,650 7,592 7,630 38 180 2,302
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322