Softs Report 05/03/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday and trends remain down in the market. Demand remains a problem. The export sales report showed poor sales once again and demand is not likely to improve with the Dollar stronger. USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets, but did cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the weekly charts. Demand has been weaker so far this year. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were post4ed for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 7380 July. Support is at 74.00, 73.40, and 72.80 July, with resistance of 76.30, 77.30 and 79.70 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday and held the trading range once again. Reports of tight supplies are around. Futures still appear to have topped out and a range trade has been seen. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 354.00, 350.00, and 347.00 July, with resistance at 380.00, 391.00, and 392.00Julay.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed much lower yesterday, with London the leader as offers appeared to increase in the cash market in Brazil and Vietnam. The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market is still the main feature, but less offers of Arabica are also noted. This appears to be changing. There were some indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee,. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is starting now and offers for all Coffee increased last week in part on weakness in the Real.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 205.50 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 15 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 959 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 201.00 July. Support is at 201.00, 199.00, and 193.00 July, and resistance is at 213.00, 220.00 and 228.00 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 3620 July. Support is at 3400, 3370, and 3330 July, with resistance at 3770, 3810, and 3950 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher and held to a trading range yesterday. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer and production data released a few weeks ago by CONAB indicated that the cane harvest could be less, but that Sugar production could be higher. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1890, 1860, and 1830 July and resistance is at 2050, 2100, and 2100 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 560.00, 554.00, and 548.00 August, with resistance at 579.00, 590.00, and 600.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were sharply lower again yesterday as the rally has collapsed. Trends are down on the daily charts. It seemed that speculators were liquidating long positions. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tig8ht supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 904 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives Support is at 7210, 7020, and 6300 July, with resistance at 8700, 9600, and 10210 May. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 6330, 5960, and 5230 July, with resistance at 7220, 8200, and 8900 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322