Grains Report 05/03/2024

DJ Food Prices Rose in April on Meat, Cereals, Vegetable Oils, UN Says
By Joe Hoppe
Food prices rose in April as prices of vegetable oils, cereals and meat more-than offset lower dairy and sugar prices, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said.
The FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged 119.1 points in April, up 0.3% from March’s level and around 9.6% lower than a year earlier. In March, food prices rose 1.1% from the previous month, snapping a seven-month streak of lower prices.
Meat prices rose by 1.6% in April, lifted by international prices for poultry, ovine and bovine meats. Pig meat prices fell slightly on low internal demand in Western Europe and persistently sluggish demand from leading importers, particularly China.
Vegetable-oil prices rose 0.3%, hitting a 13-month high. This reflects an increase in price for sunflower and rapeseed oil, offsetting slightly lower prices for palm and soy oil. International palm oil prices trended lower, mostly driven by seasonally higher output in leading producing countries, while sunflower and rapeseed continued to rise on firm global import purchases and concerns around unfavorable weather conditions in parts of Europe, according to the latest FAO report.
Cereal prices, rose 0.3%, ending three straight months of declines. Global wheat export prices stabilized on firm competition among major exporters, offsetting worries about crop conditions in the European Union, U.S. and Russia. Corn export prices rose on high demand and increasing infrastructure damage in Ukraine hitting logistics, as well as production concerns in Brazil ahead of the main harvest.
Dairy prices fell 0.25% from March levels, ending six straight months of increases on slow spot import demand for skim milk powder and lower world cheese prices. World butter prices, however, rose on solid import demand.
Sugar prices were down 4.4% from March’s levels, standing nearly 15% lower on-year. This broadly reflects improved global supply prospects, particularly bigger than expected output in producers India and Thailand, and better weather conditions in Brazil.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 06, 2024 146 Apr 25, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL May May 06, 2024 79 May 01, 2024
ROUGH RICE May May 06, 2024 36 Apr 30, 2024
CORN May May 06, 2024 441 Apr 25, 2024
SOYBEAN May May 06, 2024 196 May 01, 2024
WHEAT May May 06, 2024 18 Apr 30, 2024

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – May 2
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended April 28, 2024. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2378.6 372.0 293.3 434.3 52.1 1291.8 219.2 281.3 5755.8
Week Ago 2248.1 433.6 294.7 405.1 48.1 1373.3 247.3 238.0 5734.7
Year Ago 2429.7 397.0 340.6 431.8 52.7 1096.6 263.8 271.6 5725.2
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 603.0 48.7 39.9 98.9 8.3 376.0 8.6 11.8 1236.5
Week Ago 355.5 54.0 26.1 56.3 6.2 317.0 10.6 22.1 883.3
To Date 18476.9 3044.3 1702.4 3144.6 134.4 13351.0 2216.7 516.1 45516.4
Year Ago 18067.2 4398.3 2000.7 3931.2 138.1 14666.9 2319.5 344.7 49012.8
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 677.9 88.2 19.1 70.0 2.8 182.3 9.2 65.6 1165.8
Week Ago 534.2 126.6 16.0 60.2 1.6 157.3 9.7 48.9 991.5
To Date 18605.4 3377.9 421.8 1669.2 8.0 5579.2 1710.1 1047.0 37986.5
Year Ago 17898.4 4950.5 257.4 2310.4 6.5 7443.3 1668.9 1556.7 41453.5
EXPORTS
This Week 304.1 42.7 18.5 77.7 2.6 87.4 22.2 41.3 611.2
Week Ago 427.1 106.7 31.4 30.0 0.8 180.6 0.5 62.9 865.3
To Date 16014.3 2706.3 1104.6 1640.3 44.3 4633.5 1767.3 813.6 32756.9
Year Ago 15341.6 4234.1 1088.4 2473.7 39.8 6749.5 1573.7 1353.9 37088.1
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 123.2 8.1 17.6 29.3 0.9 217.2 3.7 18.4 439.6
Week Ago 82.8 23.7 16.6 18.7 1.0 221.8 3.1 26.2 418.3
To Date 3428.6 488.4 675.1 1108.9 43.6 8356.2 193.4 1128.0 16709.5
Year Ago 3281.2 538.5 658.8 1210.6 62.3 7781.0 248.4 1050.4 16390.2
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: MarketsFarm (Phil Franz-Warkentin, news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher yesterday and futures gained back the losses from the previous session to close with mixed trends. Trends are mixed in Minneapolis. The US Dollar was higher yesterday to help cause the selling. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again and sales are not likely to improve anytime soon with the Dollar strength. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 614, 596, and 593 July, with resistance at 637, 638, and 655 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 625, 613, and 606 July, with resistance at 650, 663, and 669 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 697, 686, and 681 July, and resistance is at 717, 721, and 732 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed sharply lower yesterday and ytrms turned down as the rally came to a dramatic end. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the cold crop and the new crop. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1825, 1785, and 1750 July and resistance is at 1869, 1886, and 1915 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday on reports of. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazile mixed ideas about how many acres of Corn will be planted in the US this year. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding at an average pace. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 450, 444, and 440 July, and resistance is at 460, 467, and 471 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 378, 362, and 356 July, and resistance is at 390, 396, and 402 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher and the products closed mixed yesterday, with Soybean Meal higher and Soybean Oil near unchanged. Support came from reports of excessive rains falling on unharvested crops in southern Brazil. Rains up to 400 mm were reported by newswires. Ideas of less bio fuels demand have hurt Soybean Oil prices. Some selling from Brazil and Argentina was noted on the early rally attempt last week. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support, but increased availability of Soy products from Argentina kept prices down. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US. Funds remain large shorts in the market.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 122,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1181, 1167, and 1159 July, and resistance is at 1204, 1216, and 1231 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 369.00 July. Support is at 350.00, 347.00, and 343.00 July, and resistance is at 370.00, 376.00, and 382.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4260, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4410, 4460, and 4530 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on reports of strong demand from India amid reports of reduced production. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was a little higher along with Chicago. Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 616.00, 603.00, and 597.00 July, with resistance at 641.00, 504.00, and 531.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3790 and 3650 July. Support is at 3780, 3740, and 3700 July, with resistance at 3930, 4020, and 4040 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 855.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 842.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 847.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 860.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 855.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 847.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 852.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 877.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 785.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 3,930.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 291.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.74)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322