Softs Report 04/25/2024

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Apr 24
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 75.131 million pounds, in March, 17.9% above the previous
month, and 2.4% below March 2023, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Wednesday.
In thousand pounds. public
Mar 31 Feb 29 Mar 31 Feb 28 warehouse
2024 2024 2023 2023 stocks/Mar
pork bellies 75,131 63,745 76,986 71,011
orange juice 256,602 255,698 327,355 272,890
french fries 963,987 958,799 1,033,254 1,037,887
other potatoes 245,229 233,173 241,266 240,196
chicken rstr (whole) 11,490 11,149 12,648 13,062
ham 69,151 69,473 84,554 85,278
total pork 464,205 457,662 533,893 521,606 393,774
total beef 432,222 447,356 477,806 500,783 414,317
total red meat 919,391 925,787 1,039,114 1,053,675 829,958
total chicken 763,713 786,899 853,341 865,786
total turkey 353,995 329,854 338,731 317,477
total poultry 1,120,401 1,119,349 1,194,671 1,185,774 1,037,968
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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday and demand remains a problem. The export sales report showed poor sales once again. USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets, but did cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the daily and weekly charts. Demand has been weaker so far this year. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 40 notices were post4ed for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 63 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 78.20, 77.40, and 76.80 May, with resistance of 82.00, 84.30 and 86.20 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up yesterday. Reports of tight supplies are around. Futures still appear to have topped out and a range trade has been seen. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 354.00, 350.00, and 347.00 May, with resistance at 380.00, 391.00, and 392.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday. The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market is still the main feature. Robusta offers from Vietnam remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. There were some indications that Vietnam producers were now offering a little Coffee, but not much and not nearly enough to satisfy demand. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is starting now and offers increased yesterday on weakness in the Real.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 226.26 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 336 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 778 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 221.00 and 204.00 July. Support is at 220.00, 215.00, and 213.00 July, and resistance is at 231.00, 245.00 and 253.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4070, 3950, and 3720 July, with resistance at 4220, 4290, and 4350 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading and trends remain down on the charts as the market seems to have supplies available for sale. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1890 July and resistance is at 1990, 2050, and 2100 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 566.00, 560.00, and 554.00 August, with resistance at 580.00, 590.00, and 600.00 August.

DJ Conab Cuts Brazilian Sugarcane Production Estimates — Market Talk
0950 ET – Brazilian crop agency Conab reduces its outlook for the Brazilian sugarcane harvest in the 2024/25 marketing year, now estimating that Brazil will produce 685.86 million tons of sugarcane. While that’s a reduction of 3.8% from last year, it would still remain as one of the largest harvests ever recorded. Conab says that the cut was made due to lower rainfall and higher temperatures recorded in the Center-South region of Brazil. Even so, a record amount of 46.29 million tons of sugar are expected to be produced from the sugarcane. Sugar futures on the ICE are off 3.8% today, bringing them down to 19 cents a pound–continuing an easing in sugar prices after they hit a multi-year record of 28 cents a pound in November. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday and trends are still mixed. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tig8ht supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 803 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now827 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 9990, 9880, and 9670 May, with resistance at 12260, 12380, and 12500 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 9000, 8500, and 8150 May, with resistance at 10260, 10400, and 10520 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322