Grains Report 04/25/2024

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Apr 24
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 75.131 million pounds, in March, 17.9% above the previous
month, and 2.4% below March 2023, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Wednesday.
In thousand pounds. public
Mar 31 Feb 29 Mar 31 Feb 28 warehouse
2024 2024 2023 2023 stocks/Mar
pork bellies 75,131 63,745 76,986 71,011
orange juice 256,602 255,698 327,355 272,890
french fries 963,987 958,799 1,033,254 1,037,887
other potatoes 245,229 233,173 241,266 240,196
chicken rstr (whole) 11,490 11,149 12,648 13,062
ham 69,151 69,473 84,554 85,278
total pork 464,205 457,662 533,893 521,606 393,774
total beef 432,222 447,356 477,806 500,783 414,317
total red meat 919,391 925,787 1,039,114 1,053,675 829,958
total chicken 763,713 786,899 853,341 865,786
total turkey 353,995 329,854 338,731 317,477
total poultry 1,120,401 1,119,349 1,194,671 1,185,774 1,037,968
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DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Apr 25
For the week ended Apr 18, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 82.0 371.9 18816.9 18691.3 2590.8 2146.7
hrw 27.6 51.3 3653.1 5056.1 621.8 347.2
srw 40.4 40.2 4296.8 2845.5 644.8 314.2
hrs 0.8 143.2 6397.9 5682.3 822.8 743.6
white 13.2 137.2 3965.4 4673.2 476.9 675.2
durum 0.0 0.0 503.6 434.1 24.5 66.5
corn 1299.9 262.3 45977.8 38451.9 14146.0 2094.4
soybeans 210.9 120.1 41493.5 50413.8 3388.2 853.6
soymeal 307.9 35.1 11024.5 9563.0 2968.6 344.2
soyoil 16.2 0.0 104.2 103.4 49.9 7.5
upland cotton 177.1 65.7 11294.3 12021.1 3400.0 1267.1
pima cotton 12.5 0.0 294.6 257.9 62.0 3.3
sorghum 38.0 0.0 5077.1 1593.6 804.9 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.8 12.0 6.2 14.0
rice 36.7 5.0 2963.0 1785.0 578.9 43.7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher yesterday and trends are up in all three markets. The weather is the key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue but are apparently getting resolved in the governments favor. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 618 May. Support is at 550, 541, and 534 May, with resistance at 608, 618, and 624 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 605, 602, and 590 May, with resistance at 633, 639, and 650 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 692 and 702 May. Support is at 650, 643, and 6032 May, and resistance is at 681, 688, and 692 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher in quiet trading. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1850, 1820, and 1818 May and resistance is at 1936, 1948, and 1960 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. There are mixed ideas about how many acres of Corn will be planted in the US this year. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding at an average pace. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 443 and 452 May. Support is at 431, 426, and 422 May, and resistance is at 448, 454, and 463 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 370 May. Support is at 352, 344, and 339 May, and resistance is at 369, 376, and 379 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mixed yesterday with some selling from Brazil noted on the early rally attempt. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1143, 1132, and 1120 May, and resistance is at 1181, 1193, and 1207 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 330.00 May, and resistance is at 352.00, 357.00, and 366.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4610, 4350, and 4280 May, with resistance at 4620, 4730, and 4830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower and made new lows for the move. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the price action in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 657.00 and 667.00 May. Support is at 620.00, 613.00, and 606.00 May, with resistance at 645.00, 652.00, and 65.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3880, 3860, and 3770 July, with resistance at 4040, 4180, and 4230 July.

DJ Malaysia April 1-25 Palm-Oil Exports Fell 0.5% on Month, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the April 1-25 period are estimated to have fallen 0.5% on month to 1,040,915 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
April 1-25 March 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 334,613 327,653
RBD Palm Oil 141,935 121,505
RBD Palm Stearin 86,931 72,666
Crude Palm Oil 204,274 147,581
Total* 1,040,915 1,046,049
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 53 May 175 May
50 May
63 May

May 55 May 165 May 50 May 59 May

June 49 July 135 July 45 July 57 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 885.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 870.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 842.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 847.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 980.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 875.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 847.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 852.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 890.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 780.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4,020.00 -110.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 301.00 -11.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7745)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 141,842 lots, or 6.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,687 4,687 4,650 4,680 4,659 4,670 11 4,051 4,163
Jul-24 4,653 4,684 4,622 4,671 4,618 4,660 42 103,385 92,387
Sep-24 4,635 4,676 4,610 4,653 4,613 4,646 33 31,799 35,671
Nov-24 4,591 4,620 4,562 4,599 4,571 4,596 25 753 4,070
Jan-25 4,574 4,607 4,552 4,585 4,560 4,583 23 1,747 5,699
Mar-25 4,574 4,595 4,545 4,577 4,556 4,572 16 107 372
Corn
Turnover: 425,589 lots, or 10.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,402 2,405 2,390 2,391 2,404 2,398 -6 28,960 135,316
Jul-24 2,422 2,425 2,408 2,411 2,417 2,414 -3 307,019 704,997
Sep-24 2,445 2,445 2,430 2,433 2,437 2,435 -2 70,766 362,784
Nov-24 2,405 2,407 2,392 2,395 2,403 2,399 -4 6,769 52,718
Jan-25 2,393 2,396 2,384 2,384 2,393 2,389 -4 11,855 80,675
Mar-25 2,398 2,399 2,392 2,393 2,398 2,394 -4 220 1,368
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,695,577 lots, or 57.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,281 3,288 3,239 3,259 3,271 3,261 -10 62,956 100,437
Jul-24 3,313 3,317 3,267 3,289 3,302 3,286 -16 68,127 149,604
Aug-24 3,393 3,405 3,352 3,374 3,384 3,374 -10 10,335 58,382
Sep-24 3,398 3,409 3,355 3,377 3,381 3,378 -3 1,451,753 2,142,090
Nov-24 3,388 3,398 3,348 3,366 3,371 3,370 -1 13,962 52,322
Dec-24 3,409 3,412 3,369 3,387 3,393 3,386 -7 397 7,833
Jan-25 3,374 3,379 3,332 3,349 3,352 3,350 -2 84,666 337,292
Mar-25 3,254 3,258 3,223 3,239 3,246 3,239 -7 3,381 8,544
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,172,627 lots, or 86.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,826 7,850 7,656 7,696 7,850 7,752 -98 22,953 18,509
Jun-24 7,796 7,816 7,514 7,590 7,808 7,656 -152 12,729 9,394
Jul-24 7,620 7,658 7,380 7,438 7,658 7,510 -148 4,188 5,362
Aug-24 7,560 7,572 7,322 7,368 7,562 7,466 -96 682 856
Sep-24 7,470 7,516 7,264 7,314 7,508 7,400 -108 1,065,415 537,140
Oct-24 7,434 7,474 7,258 7,298 7,482 7,376 -106 413 527
Nov-24 7,420 7,456 7,250 7,288 7,448 7,390 -58 187 772
Dec-24 7,430 7,452 7,254 7,274 7,424 7,378 -46 171 545
Jan-25 7,410 7,450 7,248 7,278 7,418 7,366 -52 64,790 79,491
Feb-25 7,402 7,432 7,250 7,268 7,362 7,364 2 161 293
Mar-25 7,390 7,434 7,260 7,284 7,378 7,336 -42 918 1,882
Apr-25 7,432 7,432 7,280 7,280 7,442 7,354 -88 20 34
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 691,000 lots, or 52.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,616 7,668 7,508 7,530 7,640 7,600 -40 12,121 17,647
Jul-24 7,610 7,656 7,500 7,518 7,608 7,576 -32 5,860 22,320
Aug-24 7,626 7,668 7,508 7,530 7,614 7,602 -12 843 15,757
Sep-24 7,634 7,696 7,530 7,558 7,654 7,620 -34 614,355 699,747
Nov-24 7,672 7,710 7,550 7,576 7,672 7,632 -40 841 8,573
Dec-24 7,692 7,752 7,598 7,614 7,702 7,708 6 114 1,684
Jan-25 7,666 7,720 7,564 7,586 7,666 7,658 -8 55,725 107,066
Mar-25 7,588 7,642 7,480 7,504 7,602 7,556 -46 1,141 2,259
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322