Softs Report 03/21/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday with weakness seen in nearby months on ideas of weaker export demand. It is too early to plant in Texas but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and rains and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have showers and rains and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.86 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 41,756 bales, from 39,156 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8520 and 7720 May. Support is at 90.80, 88.10, and 86.20 May, with resistance of 96.20, 97.70 and 98.40 May.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 21
For the week ended Mar 14, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat -109.6 285.9 18392.1 17863.7 4781.2 803.6
hrw 90.7 29.0 3486.4 4858.6 970.8 145.1
srw -237.5 87.9 4289.8 2735.6 1346.1 256.1
hrs 23.6 84.4 6278.8 5411.6 1543.0 221.9
white -6.8 84.6 3855.2 4489.9 850.0 123.6
durum 20.5 0.0 481.9 368.3 71.4 57.0
corn 1185.8 0.0 41696.7 34928.7 17552.7 1619.8
soybeans 494.0 0.3 40160.0 49412.7 4664.8 350.4
soymeal 243.4 42.3 10069.4 8386.5 3394.1 220.9
soyoil 1.9 0.0 74.5 74.1 46.9 7.5
upland cotton 92.6 40.5 10707.9 11179.1 4343.1 990.5
pima cotton 2.1 0.0 256.5 164.5 65.5 3.3
sorghum 9.8 0.0 4946.4 1497.7 1197.2 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.9 12.1 14.0
rice 142.1 0.0 2697.7 1568.4 696.6 0.0

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower to limit down yesterday on the Florida forecast for citrus production. Oranges production will be low, but above a year ago. Futures still appear to have topped out even with no real downtrend showing yet. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 293 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 593 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 343.00, 325.00, and 319.00 May, with resistance at 362.00, 371.00, and 378.00 May.

DJ Florida Department of Citrus Cuts 2023-24 Orange-Juice Production Forecast
By Mary de Wet
The Florida Department of Citrus cut its estimate for orange juice production in the state by about 7% as plant disease and weather remain concerns.
The department expects Florida to produce 87.7 million single-strength equivalent gallons, down from 94.3 million SSE gallons previously.
While the 2023-24 orange crop is expected to increase, Florida’s orange juice production remains hampered by citrus greening and weather-related events, the department said Wednesday.
The new forecast is higher than the 67.5 million SSE gallons produced in the 2022-23 season, when Hurricane Ian damaged orange groves across Florida.
Globally, orange-juice supplies are likely to rise 3.2% during the current season to 1.7 billion SSE gallons. Florida production is estimated to contribute 5.2% of the total supply, the department said.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed a little lower yesterday but held the weekly trading range as the lac of Robusta Coffee in the market continues to support futures overall. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less with half a marketing year in front of them and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers due to currency considerations. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production and conditions are called good. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.544 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 184.67 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 172.00 and 160.00 May. Support is at 178.00, 173.00, and 169.00 May, and resistance is at 186.00, 188.00 and 190.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 3420, 3520, and 3590 May. Support is at 3290, 3220, and 3100 May, with resistance at 3390, 33420, and 3450 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday in recovery trading after holding a support area on the charts. Futures held to a trading range. Ideas of weaker demand are around the market and are causing some selling, but producers do not appear to be selling much. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Demand reports from Europe have been strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2030, and 1930 May and resistance is at 2230, 2260, and 2290 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 654.00, 676.00, and 698.00 May. Support is at 612.00, 604.00, and 597.00 May, with resistance at 638.00, 650.00, and 663.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday and kept the incredible rally going on production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.108 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 7710, 6980, and 6660 May, with resistance at 8500, 8620, and 8740 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 6500, 6040, and 5610 May, with resistance at 7000, 7120, and 7240 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322