Grains Report 03/21/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 21
For the week ended Mar 14, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat -109.6 285.9 18392.1 17863.7 4781.2 803.6
hrw 90.7 29.0 3486.4 4858.6 970.8 145.1
srw -237.5 87.9 4289.8 2735.6 1346.1 256.1
hrs 23.6 84.4 6278.8 5411.6 1543.0 221.9
white -6.8 84.6 3855.2 4489.9 850.0 123.6
durum 20.5 0.0 481.9 368.3 71.4 57.0
corn 1185.8 0.0 41696.7 34928.7 17552.7 1619.8
soybeans 494.0 0.3 40160.0 49412.7 4664.8 350.4
soymeal 243.4 42.3 10069.4 8386.5 3394.1 220.9
soyoil 1.9 0.0 74.5 74.1 46.9 7.5
upland cotton 92.6 40.5 10707.9 11179.1 4343.1 990.5
pima cotton 2.1 0.0 256.5 164.5 65.5 3.3
sorghum 9.8 0.0 4946.4 1497.7 1197.2 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.9 12.1 14.0
rice 142.1 0.0 2697.7 1568.4 696.6 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday after news from Russia was not exciting. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price. It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures. USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 537, 527, and 524 May, with resistance at 556, 560, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 567, 561, and 552 May, with resistance at 594, 605, and 608 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 645, 641, and 635 May, and resistance is at 660, 677, and 681 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower again yesterday, and trends are still sideways in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It has turned colder in the US this week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1759, 1731, and 1722 May and resistance is at 1785, 1803, and 1837 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near unchanged and Oats closed lower. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. The Dollar was higher yesterday and could be turning the short term trends up. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 432, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 446, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 350 May. Support is at 349, 344, and 340 May, and resistance is at 362, 369, and 374 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher on what appeared to be fund short covering. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been shut off. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1175, 1165, and 1153 May, and resistance is at 1214, 1233, and 1253 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 329.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4780, 4690, and 4620 May, with resistance at 5000, 5050, and 5100 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today as the export pace is expected to continue to really improve. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association expects Malaysia’s palm oil production for March 1-20 to have risen 22%. Domestic biofuels demand is also likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was higher on weaker Canadian Dollar. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 653.00 and 662.00 May. Support is at 616.00, 632.00, and 619.00 May, with resistance at 653.00, 660.00, and 665.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4200, 4120, and 4050 May, with resistance at 4330, 4360, and 4390 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

April 58 May 185 May 80 May 68 May

May 59 May 165 May 80 May 68 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 975.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 955.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 900.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 880.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 980.00 00.00 Unquoted – _
May/Jun 960.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 905.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 885.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 967.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 815.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,400.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 308.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7135)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 118,432 lots, or 5.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,746 4,752 4,719 4,735 4,720 4,735 15 93,729 109,881
Jul-24 4,725 4,733 4,700 4,717 4,703 4,718 15 15,591 21,985
Sep-24 4,694 4,708 4,676 4,693 4,671 4,695 24 8,158 19,790
Nov-24 4,645 4,668 4,639 4,658 4,627 4,655 28 296 2,875
Jan-25 4,624 4,649 4,618 4,637 4,605 4,634 29 644 3,633
Mar-25 4,605 4,620 4,603 4,611 4,584 4,612 28 14 45
Corn
Turnover: 533,691 lots, or 12.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,422 2,432 2,415 2,421 2,425 2,422 -3 413,306 886,770
Jul-24 2,448 2,461 2,441 2,450 2,450 2,450 0 70,608 279,853
Sep-24 2,459 2,476 2,452 2,468 2,460 2,464 4 41,361 212,018
Nov-24 2,422 2,442 2,420 2,436 2,425 2,431 6 3,945 22,680
Jan-25 2,406 2,422 2,398 2,413 2,404 2,410 6 4,363 19,196
Mar-25 2,406 2,422 2,402 2,416 2,408 2,409 1 108 276
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,395,454 lots, or 80.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,339 3,415 3,324 3,385 3,302 3,370 68 1,666,433 1,424,130
Jul-24 3,287 3,366 3,284 3,340 3,267 3,323 56 55,844 87,931
Aug-24 3,328 3,405 3,325 3,384 3,316 3,364 48 5,666 30,360
Sep-24 3,314 3,387 3,306 3,366 3,296 3,347 51 591,046 1,165,000
Nov-24 3,291 3,361 3,291 3,342 3,281 3,325 44 12,695 41,311
Dec-24 3,320 3,377 3,311 3,361 3,305 3,339 34 1,571 10,059
Jan-25 3,296 3,353 3,286 3,340 3,283 3,317 34 60,566 238,108
Mar-25 3,242 3,289 3,230 3,278 3,227 3,260 33 1,633 3,034
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,165,943 lots, or 9.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 8,452 8,568 8,380 8,414 8,360 8,448 88 460 1,905
May-24 8,354 8,462 8,256 8,284 8,226 8,354 128 1,015,023 477,231
Jun-24 8,108 8,204 8,016 8,048 8,012 8,094 82 2,772 4,427
Jul-24 7,944 8,052 7,880 7,920 7,882 7,948 66 1,667 3,508
Aug-24 7,834 7,920 7,768 7,790 7,738 7,844 106 1,152 708
Sep-24 7,704 7,798 7,652 7,678 7,640 7,722 82 137,478 203,066
Oct-24 7,618 7,672 7,562 7,584 7,556 7,618 62 93 387
Nov-24 7,550 7,586 7,488 7,516 7,468 7,544 76 65 424
Dec-24 7,498 7,524 7,426 7,440 7,446 7,484 38 68 196
Jan-25 7,418 7,472 7,354 7,374 7,354 7,412 58 6,988 14,626
Feb-25 7,400 7,430 7,334 7,346 7,332 7,384 52 22 117
Mar-25 7,368 7,418 7,304 7,346 7,322 7,368 46 155 73
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 765,507 lots, or 60.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,898 8,030 7,884 7,928 7,822 7,950 128 565,991 604,370
Jul-24 7,824 7,948 7,820 7,856 7,764 7,876 112 5,639 17,907
Aug-24 7,796 7,902 7,792 7,820 7,730 7,844 114 967 4,453
Sep-24 7,760 7,872 7,750 7,786 7,702 7,804 102 176,485 388,230
Nov-24 7,742 7,846 7,732 7,756 7,698 7,784 86 1,998 7,899
Dec-24 7,818 7,900 7,788 7,814 7,742 7,840 98 200 1,843
Jan-25 7,786 7,880 7,758 7,784 7,728 7,812 84 14,210 44,892
Mar-25 7,760 7,814 7,750 7,750 7,680 7,776 96 17 28
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322