Softs Report 03/18/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower last week and at new lows for the move on the weekly charts. It is too early to plant in Texas but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 88.33 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 34,357 bales, from 31,457 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 92.50, 90.90, and 88.10 May, with resistance of 97.70, 98.40 and 100.50 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 328,311
: Positions :
: 95,383 27,049 71,136 60,309 208,667 82,054 11,369 308,882 318,220: 19,429 10,091
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 5,215) :
: -1,144 1,512 796 3,451 788 900 1,251 4,003 4,347: 1,212 868
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.1 8.2 21.7 18.4 63.6 25.0 3.5 94.1 96.9: 5.9 3.1
: Total Traders: 324 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 141 58 104 51 67 51 15 280 209:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week and the daily and weekly chart trends are mixed. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 300 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 360.00, 349.00, and 343.00 May, with resistance at 378.00, 389.00, and 391.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,428 :
: Positions :
: 2,685 5,128 667 116 121 2,600 1,194 21 1,114 972 2,434 :
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 :
: -116 -465 81 55 -16 119 164 8 -29 84 29 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.5 44.9 5.8 1.0 1.1 22.8 10.4 0.2 9.7 8.5 21.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 64 :
: 12 9 . . . 18 5 . 7 15 7 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower last week. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the market action. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell with half a marketing year in font of them and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production and conditions are called good. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is good for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.488 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 184.62 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 22 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,197 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 201.00 May. Support is at 182.00, 180.00, and 178.00 May, and resistance is at 190.00, 194.00 and 196.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2550 May. Support is at 3220, 3100, and 3070 May, with resistance at 3330, 3360, and 3390 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 244,398
: Positions :
: 54,249 20,220 67,311 52,689 141,410 61,468 8,449 235,716 237,391: 8,682 7,007
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: -3,151) :
: -198 -1,584 -3,666 160 2,526 -17 -1,000 -3,720 -3,724: 569 573
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.2 8.3 27.5 21.6 57.9 25.2 3.5 96.4 97.1: 3.6 2.9
: Total Traders: 374 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 108 79 114 97 117 48 18 317 276:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week with London the leader to the upside. Ideas of weaker demand are around the market and are causing the selling, but producers do not appear to be selling much. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas although Indian production estimates are creeping higher and one source there estimates production at about 34 million tons, from 32 million before. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. UNICA aid that the center south Brazil Sugarcane crush was 552,000 tons in the second half of February, up 668% from the previous year. Mills produced 16,000 tons of Sugar and 329 million liters of Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2250, 2360, and 2390 May. Support is at 2140, 2110, and 2030 May and resistance is at 2220, 2260, and 2290 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 630.00, 654.00, and 676.00 May. Support is at 604.00, 597.00, and 590.00 May, with resistance at 638.00, 650.00, and 663.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 997,591
: Positions :
: 85,624 72,148 258,847 364,397 524,222 214,807 73,319 923,674 928,536: 73,917 69,055
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: -21,009) :
: 1,397 -10,703 -16,097 6,095 4,762 -20,435 -852 -29,040 -22,890: 8,031 1,881
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.6 7.2 25.9 36.5 52.5 21.5 7.3 92.6 93.1: 7.4 6.9
: Total Traders: 223 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 48 74 70 66 39 21 199 174:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were sharply higher last week in trading that reflects the lack of supply in the world market as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.060 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 6980, 6660, and 6470 May, with resistance at 8040, 8080, and 8120 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 6090 and 6640 May. Support is at 6040, 5610, and 5380 May, with resistance at 6600, 6660, and 6720 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 374,405
: Positions :
: 49,962 26,145 188,452 87,011 137,122 33,788 12,271 359,213 363,989: 15,192 10,416
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,577) :
: 795 -1,719 7,106 -2,939 -554 -1,304 -922 3,659 3,911: 918 665
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 7.0 50.3 23.2 36.6 9.0 3.3 95.9 97.2: 4.1 2.8
: Total Traders: 222 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 55 85 40 39 30 12 190 159:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322