Grains Report 03/18/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 18
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 19, 2024 10 Mar 14, 2024
CORN March Mar 18, 2024 2 Mar 14, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mostly lower last week in anticipation of a bad weekly export sales report that showed bad sales, but Chicago SRW closed slightly higher. Trends are still turning up in these markets. It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures. USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 528, 524, and 518 May, with resistance at 556, 560, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 552, 546, and 540 May, with resistance at 569, 580, and 594 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 641, 635, and 629 May, and resistance is at 660, 677, and 681 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 451,363
: Positions :
: 50,886 152,612 127,722 68,960 72,895 169,370 62,232 416,939 415,461: 34,424 35,901
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: -394) :
: -14,549 -1,198 10,135 -376 -17,027 3,078 6,600 -1,712 -1,490: 1,318 1,096
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 33.8 28.3 15.3 16.1 37.5 13.8 92.4 92.0: 7.6 8.0
: Total Traders: 347 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 128 115 82 71 47 31 281 269:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 288,594
: Positions :
: 37,700 86,995 71,538 59,692 80,573 100,692 28,903 269,622 268,010: 18,973 20,585
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 12,424) :
: 1,239 -152 3,109 739 9,730 7,735 853 12,823 13,541: -399 -1,116
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 30.1 24.8 20.7 27.9 34.9 10.0 93.4 92.9: 6.6 7.1
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 38 76 65 60 71 37 22 177 194:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 67,364 :
: Positions :
: 34,971 14,633 1,615 281 473 8,084 29,785 6,281 1,401 798 4,080 :
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 :
: -1,479 1,214 177 -242 212 982 -1,455 135 -147 381 -374 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.9 21.7 2.4 0.4 0.7 12.0 44.2 9.3 2.1 1.2 6.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 107 :
: 44 30 6 . . 10 23 10 9 6 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher last week and trends are sideways on the daily charts in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1773, 1759, and 1751 May and resistance is at 1803, 1827, and 1845 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,188 :
: Positions :
: 3,139 9,266 103 0 0 4,226 537 198 1,306 772 501 :
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 :
: 583 -644 -4 0 0 -852 -41 105 11 286 10 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.8 76.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 34.7 4.4 1.6 10.7 6.3 4.1 :
\: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 18 21 . 0 0 15 . . 16 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher last week but Oats closed lower. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices and a weaker US Dollar. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 432, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 446, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 362, 356, and 349 May, and resistance is at 374, 376, and 3769 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,961,433
: Positions :
: 135,831 407,664 630,453 508,669 519,133 480,203 193,732 1,755,156 1,750,983: 206,277 210,450
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 46,783) :
: 2,565 -31,020 20,993 9,436 53,939 8,716 2,155 41,709 46,067: 5,074 717
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.9 20.8 32.1 25.9 26.5 24.5 9.9 89.5 89.3: 10.5 10.7
: Total Traders: 755 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 113 167 177 339 337 50 39 607 625:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher last week despite ideas of weak export demand in the USDA reports released Thursday as the weather in Brazil became dry in northern areas again and as world demand for Brazil beans remained high. Reports of stronger basis levels and great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans in the last week. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1220 and 1229 May. Support is at 1175, 1165, and 1153 May, and resistance is at 1204, 1214, and 1233 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 344.00 and 353.00 May. Support is at 326.00, 329.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4880, 4960, and 5070 May. Support is at 4810, 4690, and 4620 May, with resistance at 6000, 5050, and 5100 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 951,826
: Positions :
: 44,982 224,945 284,929 363,835 294,359 198,261 76,826 892,007 881,059: 59,819 70,767
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 23,895) :
: -3,203 -17,856 14,979 7,054 26,902 3,243 -2,171 22,073 21,854: 1,822 2,041
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.7 23.6 29.9 38.2 30.9 20.8 8.1 93.7 92.6: 6.3 7.4
: Total Traders: 521 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 155 182 178 186 47 31 436 445:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 595,795
: Positions :
: 53,959 128,589 172,095 165,895 226,537 173,500 40,970 565,449 568,191: 30,346 27,604
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: 12,861) :
: 837 -11,169 11,281 -4,903 11,664 4,531 2,256 11,745 14,032: 1,116 -1,171
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 21.6 28.9 27.8 38.0 29.1 6.9 94.9 95.4: 5.1 4.6
: Total Traders: 333 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 91 106 93 92 41 20 268 254:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 535,541
: Positions :
: 47,627 118,452 138,212 178,036 202,840 121,348 44,550 485,223 504,054: 50,318 31,488
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 (Change in open interest: -5,380) :
: -4,374 -3,328 1,842 -3,040 -1,721 -457 -359 -6,030 -3,565: 650 -1,815
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 22.1 25.8 33.2 37.9 22.7 8.3 90.6 94.1: 9.4 5.9
: Total Traders: 354 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 91 100 133 113 42 21 297 268:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on production problems in Southeast Asia and as the export pace is expected to really improve. Futures were higher today. Domestic biofuels demand is also likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was higher with Chicago and Malaysia. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 632.00 and 662.00 May. Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 594.00 May, with resistance at 638.00, 644.00, and 653.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 4120, 4050, and 4010 May, with resistance at 4260, 4290, and 4320 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 41,549 :
: Positions :
: 30,140 16,721 800 10,398 1,430 320 880 680 220 3,471 7,959 :
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 :
: 1,940 -80 -200 780 60 240 0 0 -620 730 240 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 72.5 40.2 1.9 25.0 3.4 0.8 2.1 1.6 0.5 8.4 19.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 33 :
: 9 13 . . 4 . . . . 11 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 12, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 301,417 :
: Positions :
: 239,622 105,501 4,431 2,897 4,527 7,259 142,911 22,028 9,397 9,616 11,739 :
: Changes from: March 5, 2024 :
: -16,753 10,321 1,405 -243 193 409 -18,104 1,449 3,618 -2,624 1,710 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 79.5 35.0 1.5 1.0 1.5 2.4 47.4 7.3 3.1 3.2 3.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 318 :
: 61 53 4 6 7 15 92 20 58 53 46 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

57 May 185 May 85 May 68 May

58 May 165 May 85 May 71 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 980.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 960.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 895.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 985.00 +05.00 Unquoted – _
May/Jun 965.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 960.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 810.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,370.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 305.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.716)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 114,903 lots, or 5.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,769 4,794 4,757 4,777 4,781 4,775 -6 87,366 122,953
Jul-24 4,730 4,761 4,715 4,746 4,736 4,741 5 18,262 23,069
Sep-24 4,690 4,728 4,674 4,715 4,693 4,704 11 7,975 17,574
Nov-24 4,617 4,670 4,617 4,660 4,650 4,651 1 742 2,869
Jan-25 4,618 4,644 4,592 4,633 4,626 4,623 -3 552 3,331
Mar-25 4,607 4,620 4,607 4,620 4,613 4,614 1 6 23
Corn
Turnover: 714,248 lots, or 17.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,455 2,462 2,437 2,440 2,437 2,451 14 569,570 882,668
Jul-24 2,472 2,482 2,461 2,464 2,460 2,473 13 66,724 255,444
Sep-24 2,475 2,488 2,471 2,473 2,463 2,480 17 61,126 204,664
Nov-24 2,435 2,446 2,431 2,434 2,423 2,439 16 11,514 23,080
Jan-25 2,419 2,427 2,412 2,413 2,411 2,420 9 5,182 15,110
Mar-25 2,424 2,424 2,416 2,416 2,403 2,419 16 132 165
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,756,275 lots, or 9.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,270 3,337 3,260 3,266 3,278 3,290 12 1,803,985 1,446,671
Jul-24 3,253 3,302 3,239 3,249 3,263 3,266 3 85,650 93,633
Aug-24 3,308 3,339 3,287 3,298 3,316 3,312 -4 6,623 30,660
Sep-24 3,288 3,317 3,268 3,280 3,299 3,292 -7 733,856 1,079,073
Nov-24 3,270 3,288 3,245 3,262 3,280 3,268 -12 13,456 37,651
Dec-24 3,280 3,307 3,266 3,282 3,290 3,287 -3 3,118 10,572
Jan-25 3,255 3,284 3,247 3,264 3,268 3,267 -1 108,222 218,851
Mar-25 3,211 3,235 3,200 3,219 3,211 3,219 8 1,365 2,078
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,157,194 lots, or 9.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 8,250 8,528 8,242 8,248 8,318 8,338 20 998 2,189
May-24 8,064 8,336 8,054 8,132 8,150 8,178 28 989,701 481,285
Jun-24 7,878 8,144 7,878 7,952 7,974 8,006 32 2,229 3,205
Jul-24 7,740 7,944 7,740 7,836 7,824 7,842 18 754 3,527
Aug-24 7,616 7,770 7,616 7,694 7,664 7,698 34 873 782
Sep-24 7,484 7,668 7,476 7,570 7,530 7,558 28 154,165 182,975
Oct-24 7,368 7,552 7,368 7,470 7,428 7,458 30 294 375
Nov-24 7,344 7,466 7,328 7,404 7,366 7,396 30 69 414
Dec-24 7,270 7,404 7,266 7,350 7,298 7,340 42 78 164
Jan-25 7,220 7,366 7,216 7,290 7,262 7,290 28 7,893 13,507
Feb-25 7,196 7,316 7,196 7,266 7,222 7,270 48 61 121
Mar-25 7,196 7,302 7,190 7,250 7,224 7,244 20 79 13
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 850,983 lots, or 66.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,792 7,952 7,780 7,844 7,806 7,860 54 602,546 614,635
Jul-24 7,694 7,830 7,686 7,752 7,716 7,756 40 3,900 17,505
Aug-24 7,650 7,774 7,650 7,714 7,672 7,710 38 1,390 4,271
Sep-24 7,620 7,746 7,614 7,686 7,636 7,674 38 219,381 336,471
Nov-24 7,596 7,720 7,596 7,658 7,624 7,664 40 3,200 7,765
Dec-24 7,680 7,788 7,664 7,742 7,688 7,736 48 283 1,882
Jan-25 7,630 7,768 7,630 7,724 7,664 7,708 44 20,274 37,595
Mar-25 7,656 7,706 7,622 7,662 7,640 7,670 30 9 11
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322