Bill Moore
William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
AgMaster Report 03/12/2024
MAY BEANS
The March WASDE issued Friday at 11am was considered neutral/negative with US stocks higher, Global stocks lower and Brazilian Bean estimates higher! While the report was a ho-hummer, the mkt’s reaction was certainly not with a 20 cent higher close to the highest level in 3 weeks! Conventional wisdom states that the bearish fundamentals (higher stocks & slack exports) were already “in” the mkt – by virtue of the $3.00 break (1420-1120) since November! As well, Brazil is still dry & the ultra-warm winter could portend a “hot & dry” Summer in the US! And the US Dollar looks to be trending lower with the Fed suggesting 2-3 rate cuts this year! Finally, a $10 rally in crude bodes well for biodiesel demand! A sharply higher mkt off a neutral report is always a welcome harbinger!
MAY CORN
Despite the neutral USDA Report on Friday, May Corn was able to maintain its 30 cent rally on Friday’s close! A plethora of positive factors enabled this impressive mkt action including – cheapness (coming off $4.00), Exports – up 35% over 2023, technical – charts key reversed up, weather – a very warm winter might extend to summer & predicted corn acres are running 3-4 mill acres under last year! The real headscratcher from Friday is the USDA’s stubborn refusal to bring down their Brazil Bean estimate – 155mmt – closer to Conab’s 145mmt! Exports are starting to flow with occasional corn sales to Mexico! the report everyone is waiting for comes on Thursday March 28 at 11am – the Quarterly Stocks & Acreage Report!
MAY WHT
“It looked so bad it was good” is an old commodity cliché that may well apply to all 3 wht contracts this morning – Minneapolis, Kansas City & Chicago! CBOT Wht has rallied interday 25 cents after starting lower after the 3rd consecutive Chinese cancellation of a US wht order, non-threatening weather for US & Russian wht crops & a sluggish export pace! This kind of mkt action often signals a low – but its perilous to predict that in a mkt that seemingly has no low! But maybe with the help of it sister mkt’s corn & bean rallies, wht is finally carving out a low! We’ll know later in the week! Certainly, no one is disputing the fact that wht prices are already plenty cheap enough!
APL CAT
April Cattle is real enigma! Take Friday’s action for instance! The mkt made new highs Inter-day – then key reversed to close lower – despite very tight supplies & cash cattle mkt up $2.00 for the week! But all it’s done since mid-December is go up or consolidate within $2-3 off its recent highs! The tight supplies & expected solid demand into the Easter weekend 3-30/3-31 will most certainly extend this trading pattern!
APL HOGS
April Hogs are not blessed with the bullish fundamentals of its “sister mkt” April Cattle – whose very tight supplies continually underpin the mkt! The April Hog contract has corrected $5.00 (88.50-83.50) due to a large net long position partially liquidating as support levels are violated & a lower slaughter rate -suggesting a slowdown in packer demand! However, the USDA pork cut-out Mon was up $1.40! And with the Easter Holiday (3-31-24) & the grilling season fast approaching, we feel demand will grab this mkt & push it back up to its early March highs!
Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337