Grains Report 03/12/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 13, 2024 68 Mar 08, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 13, 2024 80 Mar 11, 2024
ROUGH RICE March Mar 13, 2024 10 Mar 11, 2024
CORN March Mar 13, 2024 26 Mar 05, 2024
SOYBEAN March Mar 13, 2024 14 Mar 07, 2024
WHEAT March Mar 13, 2024 2 Mar 07, 2024

DJ Brazil’s Conab Lowers Outlook for Corn and Soybeans
By Kirk Maltais
Brazil’s crop agency Conab made cuts to its outlook for both corn and soybeans production in 2023/24 – reducing its soybean outlook to 146.9 million tons and its corn outlook down to 112.7 million tons.
In its report Tuesday, Conab attributed the further decline in expected crop output to weather that has been ‘variable and unfavorable in the main producing regions.’ For soybeans in particular, low rainfall in many areas has cut into crop production, the agency said.
In its previous report, Conab had forecast soybean production at 149.4 million tons and corn production at 113.7 million tons.
Grain futures are mixed in pre-market trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. Most-active corn is down 0.3%, soybeans are up 0.3%, and wheat is down 0.2%.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher yesterday and trends started to turn up in these markets. It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures. USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 539, 528, and 524 May, with resistance at 554, 560, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 612 and 634 May. Support is at 591, 581, and 568 May, with resistance at 5608, 617, and 633 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectivesof 688 and 712 May. Support is at 660, 641, and 635 May, and resistance is at 675, 681, and 688 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday and trends remain down in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1773, 1759, and 1751 May and resistance is at 1803, 1827, and 1845 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday on follow through buying from last week, and trends are up on the daily charts. USDA on Friday made no important changes to the monthly balance sheets and international data did not change that much, either. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objective of 450 May. Support is at 433, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 446, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 362, 356, and 349 May, and resistance is at 374, 376, and 3769 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mostly lower yesterday on ideas of increased offers from Brazil and despite reports of stronger basis levels and great export demand in Brazil. USDA made no significant changes to its US balance sheets on Friday and cut Brazil Soybeans production less than the trade had expected. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans in the last week. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1193 and 1220 May. Support is at 1165, 1153, and 1140 May, and resistance is at 1192, 1204, and 1214 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 344.00 and 353.00 May. Support is at 326.00, 329.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4610, 4550, and 4500 May, with resistance at 4690, 4730, and 4810 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on production problems in Southeast Asia and as the export pace is expected to really improve. Domestic biofuels demand is also likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was higher with Chicago and Malaysia. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 632.00 and 662.00 May. Support is at 602.00, 594.00, and 585.00 May, with resistance at 621.00, 629.00, and 638.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4150 May. Support is at 4050, 4000, and 3960 May, with resistance at 4140, 4170, and 4200 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

57 May 185 May 85 May 68 May

58 May 165 May 85 May 71 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 935.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 935.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 912.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 860.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 942.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 942.50 00.00 Unquoted – _
May/Jun 920.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 867.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 940.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 800.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,250.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 282.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.677)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 72,118 lots, or 3.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,638 4,688 4,638 4,688 4,638 4,641 3 107 148
May-24 4,672 4,698 4,670 4,690 4,669 4,685 16 62,453 135,988
Jul-24 4,606 4,642 4,606 4,631 4,616 4,630 14 4,854 28,983
Sep-24 4,589 4,610 4,588 4,600 4,589 4,601 12 4,215 19,439
Nov-24 4,559 4,574 4,559 4,565 4,557 4,567 10 231 3,534
Jan-25 4,544 4,560 4,544 4,553 4,544 4,553 9 258 3,825
Corn
Turnover: 618,300 lots, or 15.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,408 2,410 2,408 2,410 2,405 2,409 4 2,109 1,123
May-24 2,433 2,454 2,430 2,441 2,431 2,444 13 512,413 905,806
Jul-24 2,450 2,470 2,447 2,460 2,451 2,461 10 56,164 233,319
Sep-24 2,436 2,460 2,436 2,453 2,442 2,452 10 33,666 183,618
Nov-24 2,403 2,430 2,403 2,426 2,407 2,423 16 10,554 21,517
Jan-25 2,396 2,414 2,396 2,407 2,399 2,407 8 3,394 10,969
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,831,122 lots, or 59.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,320 3,519 3,280 3,280 3,320 3,356 36 92 1,341
May-24 3,206 3,257 3,193 3,224 3,220 3,228 8 1,265,045 1,533,302
Jul-24 3,210 3,255 3,194 3,227 3,219 3,229 10 61,543 146,397
Aug-24 3,261 3,308 3,250 3,282 3,269 3,281 12 4,230 31,975
Sep-24 3,255 3,300 3,243 3,271 3,262 3,274 12 425,309 957,677
Nov-24 3,255 3,288 3,236 3,264 3,255 3,262 7 6,288 37,688
Dec-24 3,276 3,307 3,268 3,285 3,286 3,287 1 2,150 10,270
Jan-25 3,253 3,281 3,240 3,261 3,255 3,258 3 66,465 140,883
Palm Oil
Turnover: 710,658 lots, or 55.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 – – – 7,700 7,700 7,700 0 0 4,111
Apr-24 7,926 8,028 7,926 8,000 7,934 7,982 48 1,077 2,787
May-24 7,802 7,872 7,776 7,852 7,768 7,820 52 595,618 509,281
Jun-24 7,640 7,714 7,616 7,686 7,598 7,654 56 2,017 2,781
Jul-24 7,516 7,596 7,502 7,576 7,466 7,548 82 681 3,329
Aug-24 7,404 7,498 7,396 7,470 7,360 7,438 78 329 745
Sep-24 7,282 7,400 7,282 7,378 7,254 7,338 84 101,334 157,705
Oct-24 7,236 7,300 7,202 7,280 7,174 7,252 78 252 370
Nov-24 7,150 7,260 7,150 7,242 7,116 7,216 100 193 548
Dec-24 7,120 7,218 7,114 7,204 7,074 7,174 100 67 161
Jan-25 7,042 7,184 7,034 7,172 7,020 7,126 106 8,839 8,287
Feb-25 7,044 7,168 7,030 7,162 7,010 7,106 96 251 240
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 516,542 lots, or 39.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,052 7,600 7,052 7,600 7,502 7,326 -176 10 0
May-24 7,624 7,700 7,620 7,682 7,612 7,658 46 392,829 589,570
Jul-24 7,542 7,616 7,542 7,604 7,528 7,580 52 2,867 16,281
Aug-24 7,524 7,600 7,520 7,582 7,510 7,534 24 2,352 4,578
Sep-24 7,484 7,576 7,482 7,558 7,486 7,526 40 109,694 245,376
Nov-24 7,466 7,546 7,466 7,530 7,464 7,500 36 724 7,071
Dec-24 7,544 7,598 7,534 7,592 7,526 7,560 34 105 1,688
Jan-25 7,516 7,582 7,502 7,558 7,500 7,532 32 7,961 13,758
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322