Weekly Ag Markets Update – 03/04/2024

Wheat:  Wheat was mostly a little higher last week., but SRW futures were a little lower and all prices remain in a trading range.  Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.  Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday.  Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period.  EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling.  Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker.  Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce.  It is warm in the US and Canada this week.  Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures

 

Corn:  Corn and Oats were higher last week on what appeared to be speculative short covering.  Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold.  Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet.  Funds remain very large shorts in the market.  Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns.   The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week.  More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil   The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress.  The market anticipates increased selling from US producers but this has not really shown up due to the extremely low prices so far.

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures

 

Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans and the products closed a little higher last week, with Soybeans closing higher for only the third week since November.  Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower.  Funds remain very large shorts in the market.  Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders.  Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina.  Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.  The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week.  The rains could be detrimental to the quality   Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn.  Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production but has been offset by reduced Chinese demand.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures

 

Rice:  Rice closed lower last week and held to a trading range.  Strong demand for export continues as well.  The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US.  Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures

 

Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:   Palm Oil was higher last week on production problems in Southeast Asia but as the export pace is below expectations.  Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall.  The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported.   Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.  Canola was higher with Chicago.  There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil.  Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.  The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures

 

Cotton:  Cotton closed lower Friday but higher for the week and price trends are mixed on the daily charts but up on the weekly charts on reports of stronger demand and reports of wildfires in northern Texas.  It is too early to plant but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway.  The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks.  The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around.  There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.

Weekly US Cotton Futures

 

Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ closed lower last week in range trading.  The daily and weekly chart trends are mixed.  Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil but held late last week as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.  The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.  Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.

Weekly FCOJ Futures

 

Coffee:  New York and London closed higher last week and prices remain in trading ranges, but are trying to turn trends up in New York.  London is testing a resistance area on the weekly charts and could turn trends down again if the test fails.  Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot.  Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect.  Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas.  Brazil weather is improving for the best crop production.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures

 

Sugar:  New York and London closed lower last week and trends are down on the weekly charts.  Ideas of weaker demand are around the market and are causing the selling.  The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas.  There are worries about the Thai and Indian production.  Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine.  Unica in Brazil said that the Sugar crush in south central Brazil as 549,000 tons, up 650% from last year.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures

 

Cocoa:  New York and London were higher, with New York the stronger market.  Trends remain up on the weekly charts as both markets reflect on the lack of supply in the world market against demand from non traditional sources along with traditional buyers.  Production in West Africa could be reduced by 500,000 tons this year due to the extreme weather which now includes Harmattan conditions.  Both markets kept the short term trends up.  The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing.  The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices.  Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather.  Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue.  Demand continues strong, especially from non traditional buyers of Cocoa.  Ghana now estimates Cocoa production between 650,000 and 700,000 tons, the lowest production in 14 years.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322