Softs Report 03/04/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower Friday but higher for the week and price trends are mixed on the daily charts but up on the weekly charts on reports of stronger demand and reports of wildfires in northern Texas. It is too early to plant but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 95.87 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 1,636 bales, from 1,022 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1 contact.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 96.00, 93.70, and 92.50 May, with resistance of 100.50, 101.80 and 103.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 324,111
: Positions :
: 97,782 24,552 70,742 54,513 208,211 81,544 12,273 304,582 315,777: 19,530 8,334
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: 18,068) :
: 9,192 3,813 8,402 -661 7,181 -644 -633 16,289 18,762: 1,779 -694
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 30.2 7.6 21.8 16.8 64.2 25.2 3.8 94.0 97.4: 6.0 2.6
: Total Traders: 319 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 136 54 92 53 68 51 18 272 204:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week in range trading. The daily and weekly chart trends are mixed. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil but held late last week as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 300 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 343.00, 335.00, and 329.00 May, with resistance at 364.00, 371.00, and 378.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,284 :
: Positions :
: 3,252 6,230 754 91 165 2,668 852 25 1,204 881 2,382 :
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 :
: -29 -235 -18 25 -40 426 147 -21 -115 65 -12 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.5 50.7 6.1 0.7 1.3 21.7 6.9 0.2 9.8 7.2 19.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 11 8 4 . . 19 4 . 8 14 6 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and prices remain in trading ranges, but are trying to turn trends up in New York. London is testing a resistance area on the weekly charts and could turn trends down again if the test fails. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is improving for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.353 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 181.39 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 12 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 800 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 178.00, 173.00, and 169.00 May, and resistance is at 186.00, 190.00 and 194.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3100, 2980, and 2890 May, with resistance at 3180, 3200, and 3250 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 239,537
: Positions :
: 54,710 22,584 64,739 53,067 136,104 59,400 8,991 231,917 232,416: 7,621 7,121
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,555) :
: -1,781 298 1,829 5,010 -1,185 -1,446 2,664 3,613 3,605: -58 -50
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.8 9.4 27.0 22.2 56.8 24.8 3.8 96.8 97.0: 3.2 3.0
: Total Traders: 373 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 110 82 108 94 112 47 23 310 273:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week and trends are down on the weekly charts. Ideas of weaker demand are around the market and are causing the selling. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Unica in Brazil said that the Sugar crush in south central Brazil as 549,000 tons, up 650% from last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1960, 1920, and 1900 May and resistance is at 2000, 2010, and 2030 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 527.00 May. Support is at 600.00, 586.00, and 580.00 May, with resistance at 624.00, 638.00, and 645.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 991,472
: Positions :
: 88,764 66,814 246,243 350,767 546,094 234,155 69,468 919,928 928,620: 71,544 62,852
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -15,690) :
: 7,053 -10,338 9,629 -29,710 -17,841 1,488 9,430 -11,540 -9,120: -4,150 -6,570
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 6.7 24.8 35.4 55.1 23.6 7.0 92.8 93.7: 7.2 6.3
: Total Traders: 223 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 47 70 69 67 40 20 196 172:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher, with New York the stronger market. Trends remain up on the weekly charts as both markets reflect on the lack of supply in the world market against demand from non traditional sources along with traditional buyers. Production in West Africa could be reduced by 500,000 tons this year due to the extreme weather which now includes Harmattan conditions. Both markets kept the short term trends up. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues strong, especially from non traditional buyers of Cocoa. Ghana now estimates Cocoa production between 650,000 and 700,000 tons, the lowest production in 14 years.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.156 million bags. ICE NY said that 5 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 995 contacts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 5910, 5870, and 5600 May, with resistance at 6370, 6650, and 6680 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5040, 4900, and 4800 May, with resistance at 5360, 5600, and 5720 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 396,177
: Positions :
: 51,430 28,671 199,327 95,563 144,548 34,799 14,058 381,119 386,604: 15,058 9,573
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -11,091) :
: -10,443 -6,231 8,065 -7,034 -9,887 -451 -343 -9,862 -8,394: -1,228 -2,696
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.0 7.2 50.3 24.1 36.5 8.8 3.5 96.2 97.6: 3.8 2.4
: Total Traders: 239 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 87 63 88 37 38 32 14 201 165:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322