Softs Report 02/26/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher last week but held the range from the previous week. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. USDA in its Outlook Forum estimated Cotton planted area and production higher. Demand was also higher but ending stocks showed a slight increase. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 88.42 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 997 bales, from 997 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contacts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 92.40, 90.90, and 89.00 March, with resistance of 94.90, 96.40 and 97.80 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 306,043 :
: Positions :
: 40,757 170,062 49,004 25,864 12,854 91,900 5,821 33,037 26,643 15,280 34,097 :
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 :
: -2,400 7,110 -2,336 819 880 13,950 -572 5,272 1,923 3,272 -897 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 55.6 16.0 8.5 4.2 30.0 1.9 10.8 8.7 5.0 11.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 311 :
: 42 52 17 14 21 109 18 57 53 37 47 :
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week on what appeared to be speculative buying. The daily chart trends ar3e mixed. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil, but held late last week as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 361.00, 347.00, and 340.00 March, with resistance at 381.00, 387.00, and 392.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,368 :
: Positions :
: 3,281 6,465 772 66 205 2,242 704 45 1,319 815 2,393 :
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 :
: 45 654 -24 -51 46 140 -207 -171 198 -193 -548 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.5 52.3 6.2 0.5 1.7 18.1 5.7 0.4 10.7 6.6 19.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 56 :
: 10 8 4 . . 15 4 . 9 11 7 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week and turned trends down on the charts as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February and well into March continue. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is improving for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.315 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 176.87 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 700 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 179.00, 177.00, and 173.00 May, and resistance is at 186.00, 190.00 and 194.00 May. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2990 and 2820 May. Support is at 3010, 2990, and 2890 May, with resistance at 3120, 3180, and 3200 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 235,982
: Positions :
: 56,492 22,286 62,909 48,057 137,289 60,846 6,327 228,304 228,811: 7,678 7,171
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 (Change in open interest: -16,205) :
: -2,765 1,092 -2,971 -8,185 -13,534 -776 38 -14,697 -15,374: -1,508 -830
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.9 9.4 26.7 20.4 58.2 25.8 2.7 96.7 97.0: 3.3 3.0
: Total Traders: 375 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 115 80 101 88 112 46 17 302 265:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week and the trends are turning down in both markets. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2130 and 2040 May. Support is at 2160, 2110, and 2090 May and resistance is at 2250, 2290, and 2340 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 592.00 and 572.00 May. Support is at 601.00, 586.00, and 580.00 May, with resistance at 633.00, 645.00, and 651.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,007,162
: Positions :
: 81,711 77,152 236,615 380,476 563,935 232,666 60,038 931,468 937,740: 75,694 69,422
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 (Change in open interest: -147,428) :
: -1,288 7,260 -72,461 -67,459 -59,188 -1,697 -32,668 -142,904 -157,057: -4,523 9,630
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 7.7 23.5 37.8 56.0 23.1 6.0 92.5 93.1: 7.5 6.9
: Total Traders: 224 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 46 56 73 71 69 38 21 197 178:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were much higher last week as both markets reflect on the lack of supply in the world market against demand from non traditional sources along with traditional buyers. Both markets kept the short term trends up. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues strong, especially from non traditional buyers of Cocoa. Ghana now estimates Cocoa production between 650,000 and 700,000 tons, the lowest production in 14 years.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.206 million bags. ICE NY said that 153 notic3s were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 400 contacts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 6870 May. Support is at 6000, 5670, and 5600 May, with resistance at 6440, 6560, and 6690 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 5420 May. Support is at 5070, 4790, and 4660 May, with resistance at 5360, 5480, and 5600 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 407,268
: Positions :
: 61,874 34,902 191,261 102,597 154,435 35,250 14,401 390,981 394,998: 16,286 12,269
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 (Change in open interest: -17,481) :
: -4,531 -2,471 -528 -10,026 -14,219 -1,824 -792 -16,909 -18,010: -572 529
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.2 8.6 47.0 25.2 37.9 8.7 3.5 96.0 97.0: 4.0 3.0
: Total Traders: 237 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 69 90 37 36 30 13 200 167:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322