Grains Report 02/26/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed last week, with Chicago Winter What markets holding a little higher but Minneapolis Spring Wheat closing a little lower, on big world supplies and low world prices. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 572, 555, and 544 March, with resistance at 592, 600, and 607 March. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 563, 560, and 554 March, with resistance at 588, 594, and 611 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 639 and 628 March. Support is at 636, 630, and 624 March, and resistance is at 657, 667, and 672 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 455,296
: Positions :
: 64,685 139,903 126,761 70,936 89,794 159,329 60,700 421,710 417,159: 33,586 38,137
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 (Change in open interest: 6,878) :
: 205 14,730 234 3,960 -12,240 1,422 2,320 5,822 5,045: 1,056 1,833
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 30.7 27.8 15.6 19.7 35.0 13.3 92.6 91.6: 7.4 8.4
: Total Traders: 358 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 118 129 83 80 47 33 294 290:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 269,353
: Positions :
: 32,388 85,036 63,586 59,132 68,809 92,598 27,612 247,704 245,043: 21,650 24,311
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 (Change in open interest: -732) :
: 1,211 5,888 -1,527 1,548 -1,826 -1,951 -3,908 -719 -1,374: -13 642
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.0 31.6 23.6 22.0 25.5 34.4 10.3 92.0 91.0: 8.0 9.0
: Total Traders: 222 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 40 67 59 61 63 38 21 176 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 74,867 :
: Positions :
: 39,223 16,387 2,131 594 360 7,165 31,332 6,786 1,781 2,378 6,253 :
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 :
: -1,603 -153 134 235 -21 472 -193 325 139 -970 -277 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.4 21.9 2.8 0.8 0.5 9.6 41.8 9.1 2.4 3.2 8.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 118 :
: 51 43 5 . 4 7 28 11 8 9 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher after a wild week. The close was strong and keeps hopes for more rallies intact. Strong demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1831, 1808, and 1792 March and resistance is at 1874, 1889, and 1919 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,777 :
: Positions :
: 2,548 9,631 132 0 29 5,190 769 101 1,089 536 574 :
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 :
: 17 323 -68 0 -12 141 -7 42 -71 -35 -148 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.9 75.4 1.0 0.0 0.2 40.6 6.0 0.8 8.5 4.2 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 14 20 . 0 . 18 . . 11 5 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower last week on big supplies and reports of limited demand. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this week but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 399, 396, and 393 March, and resistance is at 410, 416, and 421 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 360 and 343 March. Support is at 360, 350, and 330 March, and resistance is at 380, 389, and 393 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,053,885
: Positions :
: 131,459 473,385 658,094 600,943 517,231 459,505 169,257 1,850,001 1,817,967: 203,884 235,918
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 (Change in open interest: 15,037) :
: -5,605 13,539 -2,062 11,648 -7,566 6,715 7,814 10,696 11,726: 4,341 3,311
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.4 23.0 32.0 29.3 25.2 22.4 8.2 90.1 88.5: 9.9 11.5
: Total Traders: 764 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 115 168 203 356 331 49 36 640 635:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower and made new lows for the move last week and trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. A short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1136 March. Support is at 1132, 1120, and 1108 March, and resistance is at 1164, 1180, and 1200 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 312.00 March. Support is at 326.00, 323.00, and 320.00 March, and resistance is at 339.00, 349.00, and 356.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4340, 4280, a6nd 4220 March, with resistance at 4460, 4530, and 4680 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,037,578
: Positions :
: 50,319 210,999 335,799 406,293 350,201 185,175 67,439 977,586 964,437: 59,992 73,140
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 (Change in open interest: 32,351) :
: 8,110 6,605 8,139 18,177 16,300 -1,418 773 33,008 31,818: -657 533
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.8 20.3 32.4 39.2 33.8 17.8 6.5 94.2 93.0: 5.8 7.0
: Total Traders: 555 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 169 179 186 193 52 32 455 464:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 604,371
: Positions :
: 49,714 126,760 171,231 183,218 240,663 170,806 38,699 574,969 577,353: 29,403 27,019
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 (Change in open interest: 399) :
: 984 9,651 5,189 -2,822 -11,511 -2,944 -450 407 2,878: -8 -2,479
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.2 21.0 28.3 30.3 39.8 28.3 6.4 95.1 95.5: 4.9 4.5
: Total Traders: 329 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 83 104 97 98 45 23 268 262:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 598,616
: Positions :
: 52,836 107,709 176,340 194,855 241,599 121,452 38,227 545,483 563,875: 53,133 34,741
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,444) :
: 6,560 2,316 -4,532 4,506 -2,433 -4,427 6,236 2,107 1,586: -663 -142
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 18.0 29.5 32.6 40.4 20.3 6.4 91.1 94.2: 8.9 5.8
: Total Traders: 350 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 77 103 133 119 43 22 297 277:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on production problems in Southeast Asia but as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market ove4rall. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was lower with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 566.00, 560.00, and 544.00 March, with resistance at 585.00, 594.00, and 604.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3720, and 3760 May, with resistance at 3860, 3920, and 3980 May.

DJ Malaysia Feb. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports Fell 14%, AmSpec Says
By Ronnie Harui
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Feb. 1-25 period are estimated to have fallen 14% on month to 863,108 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.

The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
February 1-25 January 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 270,206 248,505
RBD Palm Oil 80,377 69,400
RBD Palm Stearin 69,609 76,109
Crude Palm Oil 210,465 253,361
Total* 863,108 1,006,930
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 42,740 :
: Positions :
: 28,690 20,331 1,110 8,848 1,560 0 940 360 2,460 2,241 8,460 :
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 :
: 1,410 -610 0 1,060 0 0 240 80 -360 380 900 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 67.1 47.6 2.6 20.7 3.6 0.0 2.2 0.8 5.8 5.2 19.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 25 :
: 8 10 . . . 0 . . 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 20, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 307,596 :
: Positions :
: 251,093 97,772 3,455 2,694 4,348 9,066 158,948 21,786 6,461 9,924 9,700 :
: Changes from: February 13, 2024 :
: -4,116 -8,709 -572 144 -87 2,043 3,537 -2,451 -1,823 471 -575 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.6 31.8 1.1 0.9 1.4 2.9 51.7 7.1 2.1 3.2 3.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 322 :
: 60 58 . 6 7 13 103 25 44 67 43 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 67 Mar 165 Mar
100 Mar
85 Mar

March
62 Mar 165 Mar 105 Mar 81 Mar

April
54 May 170 May 100 May 72 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 870.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 860.00 — Unquoted – –
May/Jun 830.00 — Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 805.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 877.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 867.50 — Unquoted – –
May/Jun 837.50 — Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 812.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 875.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 747.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,020.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 262.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7745)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 156,627 lots, or .72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,635 4,666 4,591 4,606 4,680 4,618 -62 38,440 44,037
May-24 4,580 4,581 4,546 4,549 4,609 4,565 -44 104,575 163,989
Jul-24 4,532 4,547 4,505 4,508 4,571 4,525 -46 7,416 25,165
Sep-24 4,530 4,536 4,490 4,492 4,555 4,510 -45 4,578 15,724
Nov-24 4,510 4,512 4,474 4,474 4,536 4,493 -43 770 2,889
Jan-25 4,511 4,511 4,471 4,473 4,525 4,491 -34 848 2,950
Corn
Turnover: 813,348 lots, or 20.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,396 2,411 2,394 2,398 2,395 2,403 8 10,696 21,989
May-24 2,459 2,479 2,452 2,460 2,459 2,465 6 674,979 958,269
Jul-24 2,476 2,497 2,474 2,482 2,476 2,485 9 62,000 233,670
Sep-24 2,461 2,480 2,460 2,467 2,457 2,469 12 43,232 141,194
Nov-24 2,417 2,437 2,411 2,425 2,423 2,427 4 20,303 17,916
Jan-25 2,416 2,426 2,406 2,418 2,419 2,420 1 2,138 6,563
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,358,188 lots, or 40.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,076 3,094 3,058 3,061 3,095 3,076 -19 12,661 19,823
May-24 2,990 3,005 2,967 2,989 2,983 2,987 4 1,085,177 1,662,867
Jul-24 2,999 3,014 2,981 3,002 2,994 2,997 3 38,127 193,078
Aug-24 3,081 3,093 3,062 3,084 3,076 3,077 1 5,182 32,348
Sep-24 3,071 3,086 3,054 3,077 3,070 3,071 1 203,275 832,658
Nov-24 3,073 3,086 3,056 3,077 3,073 3,069 -4 3,624 45,350
Dec-24 3,125 3,138 3,110 3,129 3,123 3,122 -1 771 12,438
Jan-25 3,120 3,133 3,104 3,123 3,118 3,117 -1 9,371 80,020
Palm Oil
Turnover: 590,565 lots, or 42.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,490 7,526 7,434 7,486 7,490 7,486 -4 2,584 5,391
Apr-24 7,456 7,484 7,380 7,428 7,438 7,438 0 1,934 3,509
May-24 7,288 7,328 7,230 7,274 7,282 7,284 2 522,091 368,342
Jun-24 7,144 7,174 7,092 7,130 7,148 7,136 -12 511 1,996
Jul-24 7,036 7,046 6,960 6,976 7,028 7,010 -18 1,274 2,982
Aug-24 6,944 6,944 6,878 6,890 6,934 6,918 -16 179 1,555
Sep-24 6,838 6,856 6,782 6,814 6,834 6,828 -6 60,753 124,832
Oct-24 6,794 6,806 6,744 6,770 6,788 6,778 -10 80 454
Nov-24 6,746 6,774 6,712 6,736 6,752 6,736 -16 62 651
Dec-24 6,736 6,740 6,706 6,728 6,742 6,716 -26 98 226
Jan-25 6,716 6,730 6,674 6,704 6,714 6,700 -14 957 1,842
Feb-25 6,714 6,768 6,678 6,704 6,716 6,702 -14 42 42
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 497,719 lots, or 35.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,398 7,398 7,338 7,360 7,398 7,362 -36 961 2,954
May-24 7,252 7,266 7,172 7,198 7,254 7,226 -28 426,584 596,554
Jul-24 7,188 7,198 7,120 7,140 7,194 7,166 -28 3,386 19,497
Aug-24 7,188 7,194 7,124 7,144 7,194 7,164 -30 701 7,698
Sep-24 7,166 7,170 7,090 7,114 7,168 7,136 -32 64,062 187,823
Nov-24 7,150 7,152 7,076 7,098 7,154 7,118 -36 1,069 7,862
Dec-24 7,220 7,220 7,160 7,172 7,226 7,190 -36 41 1,789
Jan-25 7,202 7,204 7,132 7,150 7,206 7,174 -32 915 7,809
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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