About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday, especially in nearby months. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. USDA in its Outlook Forum estimated Cotton planted area and production higher. Demand was also higher but ending stocks showed a slight increase. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 89.39 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 997 bales, from 997 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contacts. USDA said that weekly net export sales were 130,500 bales this year and 58,100 bales next yeqar. Net Pia sales were 3,400 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 92.40, 90.90, and 89.00 March, with resistance of 95.30, 96.40 and 97.80 March.

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying. The daily chart trends ar3e mixed. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil, but held late last week as current supplies remain very tight amd only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 359.00, 347.00, and 340.00 March, with resistance at 373.00, 381.00, and 387.00 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is improving for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.315 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 180.02 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 457 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the m=month are now 642 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 182.00, 179.00, and 176.00 May1, and resistance is at 190.00, 194.00 and 199.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3060, 3010, and 2990 May, with resistance at 3180, 3200, and 3240 May.

General Comments: New York and London closed mostly lower yesterday and the trends are turning down in both markets. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2130 and 2040 May. Support is at 2160, 2110, and 2090 May and resistance is at 2250, 2290, and 2340 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 592.00 and 572.00 May. Support is at 614.00, 601.00, and 586.00 May, with resistance at 645.00, 651.00, and 663.00 May.

General Comments: New York closed slightly lower and London was higher yesterday. Both markets kept the short term trends up. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Demand continues strong, especially from non traditional buyers of Cocoa. Ghana now estimates Cocoa production between 650,000 and 700,000 tons, the lowest production in 14 years.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.220 million bags. ICE NY said that 247 notic3s were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 247 contacts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 6360 and 6870 May. Support is at 5670, 5600, and 5330 May, with resistance at 6060, 6120, and 6170 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 5130 and 5420 May. Support is at 4790, 4660, and 4490 May, with resistance at 5120, 5180, and 5240 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322