Grains Report 02/23/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Feb 23
For the week ended Feb 15, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 233.5 46.6 17836.0 16850.6 5965.0 377.6
hrw 98.5 16.6 3220.4 4592.4 997.9 48.2
srw 56.3 0.0 4571.2 2646.0 2139.4 160.4
hrs 49.3 0.0 5910.1 5069.5 1742.2 100.0
white 28.8 12.0 3676.7 4229.8 937.9 12.0
durum 0.5 18.0 457.5 313.1 147.5 57.0
corn 820.4 177.7 37035.6 28639.9 18054.3 1454.8
soybeans 55.9 0.0 38863.8 48384.7 7262.3 189.8
soymeal 202.0 0.5 9002.6 7553.2 3689.2 11.3
soyoil -5.3 0.0 29.2 50.9 18.0 0.6
upland cotton 130.5 58.1 10437.4 10358.3 5361.1 808.9
pima cotton 3.4 0.0 231.0 135.0 58.5 3.3
sorghum 8.8 0.0 4405.9 1000.0 1172.7 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.9 12.3 14.0
rice 24.4 0.0 2366.2 1368.2 759.6 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed yesterday, with Chicago holding a little higher but the other markets closing a little lower, on big world supplies and low world prices. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 572, 555, and 544 March, with resistance at 585, 600, and 607 March. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 563, 560, and 554 March, with resistance at 588, 594, and 611 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 659, 642, and 636 March, and resistance is at 672, 680, and 689 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday after trading higher an then lower for the day. The close was strong and keeps hopes for more rallies intact. Strong demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1831, 1808, and 1792 March and resistance is at 1874, 1889, and 1919 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower again yesterday on big supplies and reports of limited demand. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this week but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 402, 399, and 396 March, and resistance is at 416, 421, and 429 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 350, and 330 March, and resistance is at 380, 389, and 393 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower again yesterday and trends are down on the daily charts. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1136 March. Support is at 1144, 1132, and 1120 March, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1207 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 312.00 March. Support is at 335.00, 332.00, and 329.00 March, and resistance is at 349.00, 356.00, and 359.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 4400, 4340, a6nd 4280 March, with resistance at 4680, 4770, and 4850 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again today as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market ove4rall. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was lower with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 566.00, 560.00, and 544.00 March, with resistance at 585.00, 594.00, and 604.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3720, and 3760 May, with resistance at 3860, 3920, and 3980 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

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US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 67 Mar 165 Mar
100 Mar
85 Mar

March
62 Mar 165 Mar 105 Mar 81 Mar

April
54 May 170 May 100 May 72 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 865.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 832.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 802.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 872.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 840.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 810.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 872.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 745.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,020.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 262.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.773)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 177,823 lots, or 8.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,682 4,703 4,647 4,647 4,710 4,680 -30 67,933 58,093
May-24 4,630 4,640 4,578 4,581 4,663 4,609 -54 94,687 148,453
Jul-24 4,594 4,594 4,545 4,546 4,610 4,571 -39 7,472 24,093
Sep-24 4,575 4,575 4,529 4,532 4,584 4,555 -29 5,883 15,107
Nov-24 4,551 4,553 4,514 4,516 4,563 4,536 -27 889 2,457
Jan-25 4,551 4,551 4,511 4,512 4,551 4,525 -26 959 2,296
Corn
Turnover: 729,983 lots, or 17.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,386 2,406 2,384 2,400 2,377 2,395 18 21,762 27,708
May-24 2,461 2,469 2,448 2,463 2,441 2,459 18 579,931 968,217
Jul-24 2,486 2,486 2,466 2,482 2,459 2,476 17 71,990 240,996
Sep-24 2,470 2,471 2,448 2,466 2,453 2,457 4 50,212 133,959
Nov-24 2,439 2,439 2,418 2,421 2,429 2,423 -6 4,202 18,380
Jan-25 2,430 2,432 2,412 2,415 2,423 2,419 -4 1,886 6,184
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,139,338 lots, or 34.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,105 3,118 3,083 3,092 3,108 3,095 -13 12,676 26,396
May-24 2,990 2,998 2,965 2,996 2,983 2,983 0 874,395 1,642,896
Jul-24 3,006 3,007 2,978 3,005 2,991 2,994 3 34,298 191,833
Aug-24 3,085 3,092 3,064 3,085 3,079 3,076 -3 3,521 32,860
Sep-24 3,080 3,088 3,059 3,078 3,071 3,070 -1 199,898 832,671
Nov-24 3,078 3,088 3,060 3,078 3,071 3,073 2 4,552 45,238
Dec-24 3,140 3,141 3,115 3,133 3,128 3,123 -5 588 12,108
Jan-25 3,134 3,134 3,106 3,123 3,119 3,118 -1 9,410 78,184
Palm Oil
Turnover: 548,771 lots, or 39.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,502 7,536 7,466 7,516 7,566 7,490 -76 832 7,467
Apr-24 7,468 7,476 7,412 7,448 7,484 7,438 -46 2,168 3,428
May-24 7,322 7,330 7,250 7,294 7,358 7,282 -76 490,800 371,042
Jun-24 7,188 7,194 7,120 7,144 7,208 7,148 -60 569 2,012
Jul-24 7,068 7,074 7,006 7,044 7,078 7,028 -50 284 2,274
Aug-24 6,972 6,972 6,904 6,932 6,974 6,934 -40 127 1,540
Sep-24 6,884 6,886 6,808 6,846 6,880 6,834 -46 52,899 119,872
Oct-24 6,812 6,812 6,766 6,792 6,822 6,788 -34 58 449
Nov-24 6,788 6,788 6,736 6,756 6,780 6,752 -28 131 622
Dec-24 6,770 6,770 6,730 6,746 6,772 6,742 -30 95 156
Jan-25 6,750 6,750 6,696 6,722 6,748 6,714 -34 791 1,469
Feb-25 6,742 6,742 6,696 6,722 6,748 6,716 -32 17 15
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 476,659 lots, or 34.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,364 7,434 7,354 7,382 7,390 7,398 8 2,586 3,398
May-24 7,284 7,292 7,220 7,262 7,278 7,254 -24 402,968 572,646
Jul-24 7,238 7,238 7,170 7,198 7,214 7,194 -20 2,430 18,562
Aug-24 7,222 7,230 7,172 7,194 7,208 7,194 -14 698 7,698
Sep-24 7,198 7,204 7,142 7,170 7,178 7,168 -10 66,306 177,587
Nov-24 7,188 7,190 7,130 7,160 7,160 7,154 -6 728 7,968
Dec-24 7,238 7,248 7,210 7,242 7,226 7,226 0 106 1,782
Jan-25 7,238 7,238 7,188 7,220 7,194 7,206 12 837 7,519
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322