Softs Report 02/20/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher last week and the price action was strong as futures built on the gains seen the previous week and confirmed a strong new up trend has developed. The weekly export sales report showed solid sales and sales are expected to continue strong in the world market for the future. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. USDA in its Outlook Forum estimated Cotton planted area and production higher. Demand was also higher but ending stocks showed a slight increase. The charts indicate that trends turned up in the second half of last week. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 89.28 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 92.40, 92.00, and 88.60 March, with resistance of 96.00, 97.20 and 98.40 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 291,073
: Positions :
: 75,751 18,114 58,289 56,781 192,125 81,080 12,603 271,901 281,130: 19,172 9,943
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: -25,193) :
: 16,090 -2,857 -23,569 -18,024 9,514 316 -6,184 -25,187 -23,096: -5 -2,097
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.0 6.2 20.0 19.5 66.0 27.9 4.3 93.4 96.6: 6.6 3.4
: Total Traders: 306 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 120 58 100 49 69 49 18 261 208:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower last week but well off the lows of the week. The daily charts suggest once again that the market is finding a high area, and daily chart trends ar3e mixed. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil, but held late last week as current supplies remain very tight amd only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 360.00, 347.00, and 340.00 March, with resistance at 383.00, 387.00, and 392.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,731 :
: Positions :
: 3,237 5,811 796 117 159 2,102 911 216 1,120 1,009 2,941 :
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 :
: 727 -54 -56 24 45 90 23 46 -231 537 -161 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.4 45.6 6.3 0.9 1.2 16.5 7.2 1.7 8.8 7.9 23.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 59 :
: 10 8 4 . . 14 5 4 7 16 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week, with London the leader as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot. Also, exchange inventories remain reduced, indicating that futures are too far below cash values to entice people to register for delivery to the exchange. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is improving for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.307 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 183.39 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 185.00, 182.00, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 192.00, 198.00 and 200.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3170, 3140, and 3060 March, with resistance at 3380, 3440, and 3500 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 252,187
: Positions :
: 59,256 21,194 65,880 56,242 150,823 61,622 6,288 243,001 244,185: 9,186 8,002
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: -28,559) :
: 2,831 -292 -23,979 -3,476 1,399 -3,285 -5,031 -27,908 -27,903: -652 -656
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.5 8.4 26.1 22.3 59.8 24.4 2.5 96.4 96.8: 3.6 3.2
: Total Traders: 385 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 125 71 108 92 112 47 19 320 268:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week and the trends are turning down on the daily and weekly charts. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Unica in Brazil said that mills crushed 714,000 tons of Sugarcane in the second half of January, up 132% from last year. Sugar production was 28,000 tons and Ethanol production was 313 million liters.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2130 and 2040 May. Support is at 2190, 2170, and 2110 May and resistance is at 2290, 2340, and 2370 May. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 592.00 and 572.00 May. Support is at 622.00, 614.00, and 601.00 May, with resistance at 644.00, 651.00, and 663.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,154,590
: Positions :
: 82,999 69,892 309,075 447,935 623,123 234,363 92,707 1,074,372 1,094,797: 80,217 59,792
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: -3,629) :
: -1,031 -6,981 -5,365 -6,211 4,914 9,661 4,537 -2,946 -2,895: -683 -734
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.2 6.1 26.8 38.8 54.0 20.3 8.0 93.1 94.8: 6.9 5.2
: Total Traders: 226 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 45 77 74 72 37 19 202 181:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week but kept the short term trends up. Price trends remain mostly up on the daily and weekly charts. Futures have rallied sharply for the past month but exploded higher last week. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.190 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 5450, 5390, and 5010 March, with resistance at 6040, 6090, and 6150 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4630, 4570, and 4350 March, with resistance at 4940, 5000, and 5060 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 424,748
: Positions :
: 66,405 37,373 191,789 112,622 168,654 37,074 15,192 407,890 413,008: 16,858 11,740
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: -30,939) :
: -18,394 -5,373 -3,732 -2,529 -18,540 -4,552 -1,250 -29,207 -28,895: -1,732 -2,044
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 8.8 45.2 26.5 39.7 8.7 3.6 96.0 97.2: 4.0 2.8
: Total Traders: 239 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 84 64 94 39 40 31 13 203 172
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322