About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday and the price action was strong and attempted to confirm the new up trend after a big sideways pattern of trade on the daily charts. USDA found increased demand to lower ending stocks to 280 million bales from 290 million bales before. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The charts indicate that trends turned up in the second half of last week. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 86.74 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 160,500 bales this year and 7,700 bales next yeqar. Net Pima sales were 5,300 bales this year and 0 bqlers next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 88.60, 87.00, and 86.00 March, with resistance of 93.90, 95.50 and 96.10 March.

General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up yesterday in response to the limit down move seen on Monday. The daily charts suggest once again that the market is finding a high area, and daily chart trends remain down. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 339.00 and 306.00 March. Support is at 340.00, 330.00, and 300.00 March, with resistance at 361.00, 372.00, and 387.00 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed lower once again yesterday as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is improving for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.302 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 179.87 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 185.00, 182.00, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 200.00, 201.00 and 204.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3180, 3140, and 3060 March, with resistance at 3380, 3440, and 3500 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday in consolidation trading and the trends remain sideways on the daily charts. Slow trading is anticipated for much of this week due to Carnaval and the Lunar New Year holidays. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Unica in Brazil said that mills crushed 714,000 tons of Sugarcane in the second half of January, up 132% fom last ear. Sugar production was 28,000 tons and Ethanol production was 313 million liters.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2210, 2180, and 2150 May and resistance is at 2360, 2410, and 2370 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 631.00, 622.00, and 615.00 May, with resistance at 664.00, 670.00, and 695.00 May.

General Comments: Both markets were mixed to lower and still held recent gains after entering the stratosphere last week. Price trends remain mostly up on the daily and weekly charts. Futures have rallied sharply for the past month but exploded higher last week. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.180 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 5450, 5330, and 5230 March, with resistance at 6040, 6090, and 6150 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4350, 4300, and 4200 March, with resistance at 4940, 5000, and 5060 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322