Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Export Prices MoM & YoY, Import Prices MoM & YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM & YoY, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, and Philly Fed Prices Paid at 7:30 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY and Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY at 8:15 A.M., NAHB Housing Market Index and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-year Mortgage Rate and NOPA Crush Report at 11:00 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 12:15 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M.
The EIA’s weekly report showed crude stocks rose 12 Mil BBL’s from last week and the largest one week increase since early November. But compared to a year ago, stocks are down 32 Mil BBL’s or 7%, marking the largest year-over-year decline since June 2022. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks rose for the 9th consecutive week and have been unchanged or higher in 28 of the last 31 weeks. Although, this is moving in the right direction, the restocking attempt has been a pittance compared to the liquidation that has occurred in the last 3 years. Right about the time that the administration closed the Keystone Pipeline XL and pushed further regulation on the Permian Basin in their war on the energy sector. Since July, stocks have increased by an average of 387,000 BBL’s/Week.
Grains are coming in lower with traders awaiting the USDA’s first prediction at 2024/25 US major crop balance sheets. Last year, Chief USDA economist Seth Meyer released the balance sheets in the opening session of the US farm economy forecast. In other years, the WASDE balance sheets were not released until Friday morning. The expectation is the USDA will include the balance sheets in the USDA chief economist presentation with the grain markets to react accordingly. The USDA is expected to include forecasts at record or near record corn and soybean yields in their assessment, meaning that large corn/wheat/soybean stocks are anticipated. CBOT grain futures fell in recent days in preparation. Numerous analyst see a possible selloff anywhere from $0.80 to $1.00 following the cash markets week lead. Ag Resources wonders if today will be a sell rumor and buy fact trading session. A new Northern Hemisphere growing season is ahead and there remain unanswered questions regarding South American crop sizes. It’s the reaction of the market to the USDA report that is important.
Cash MKT & Forecasted USDA Data Lean Heavily Bearish. The Corn & Ethanol Report 02/15/2024
We kickoff the day with Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Export Prices MoM & YoY, Import Prices MoM & YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM & YoY, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, Philly Fed Business Conditions, Philly Fed CAPEX Index, Philly Fed Employment, Philly Fed New Orders, and Philly Fed Prices Paid at 7:30 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY and Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY at 8:15 A.M., NAHB Housing Market Index and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-year Mortgage Rate and NOPA Crush Report at 11:00 A.M., Fed Waller Speech at 12:15 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overall Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M.
The EIA’s weekly report showed crude stocks rose 12 Mil BBL’s from last week and the largest one week increase since early November. But compared to a year ago, stocks are down 32 Mil BBL’s or 7%, marking the largest year-over-year decline since June 2022. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks rose for the 9th consecutive week and have been unchanged or higher in 28 of the last 31 weeks. Although, this is moving in the right direction, the restocking attempt has been a pittance compared to the liquidation that has occurred in the last 3 years. Right about the time that the administration closed the Keystone Pipeline XL and pushed further regulation on the Permian Basin in their war on the energy sector. Since July, stocks have increased by an average of 387,000 BBL’s/Week.
Grains are coming in lower with traders awaiting the USDA’s first prediction at 2024/25 US major crop balance sheets. Last year, Chief USDA economist Seth Meyer released the balance sheets in the opening session of the US farm economy forecast. In other years, the WASDE balance sheets were not released until Friday morning. The expectation is the USDA will include the balance sheets in the USDA chief economist presentation with the grain markets to react accordingly. The USDA is expected to include forecasts at record or near record corn and soybean yields in their assessment, meaning that large corn/wheat/soybean stocks are anticipated. CBOT grain futures fell in recent days in preparation. Numerous analyst see a possible selloff anywhere from $0.80 to $1.00 following the cash markets week lead. Ag Resources wonders if today will be a sell rumor and buy fact trading session. A new Northern Hemisphere growing season is ahead and there remain unanswered questions regarding South American crop sizes. It’s the reaction of the market to the USDA report that is important.
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Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn