Energy Food Economy. The Corn & Ethanol Report 02/13/2024

We kickoff the day with NFIB Business Optimism Index at 5:00 A.M., Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, Inflation Rate MoM & YoY, CPI, CPI s.a., and Real Earnings at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.

The US government’s budget deficit in January declined to $21.9 Bil, down from $129 Bil in December and $38.8 Bil in January 2023. Nevertheless, this marked the 5^th consecutive month that the government spent more than it took in. The figure in the 2022/23 fiscal year was a $1.7 Trillion deficit as outlays remained elevated, while receipts (taxes) failed to expand and fell 9%. The deficit in the first 4 months of the current fiscal year has increased by 16% to $532 Bil on rising interest costs on the national debt. Receipts have risen by $112 Bil to $1.585 Tril, while outlays increased to $184 Bil to $2.117 Tri.

South America weather watch has rainfall anomalies the next 10-days. Broad drying for NE Brazil and Argentina will now lean to the fundamentals, which charts and funds telling us otherwise. As we navigate and ride out the muddy waters as global crop estimates with yields counter the balance. In the overnight electronic session volume on the CBOT picked up. However, holidays in SE Asia and South America continue to limit activity. Choppy grain trade is expected into the USDA’s 100^th Outlook Forum which begins Thursday. The USDA has already forecasted a significant decline in US 2024 net farm income which is telegraphing larger stocks and lower grain prices forecasted.

Have A Great Trading Day!