Grains Report 02/13/2024

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 12
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Feb 12, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 08, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 02/08/2024 02/01/2024 02/09/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,814 2,154
CORN 880,074 645,494 563,448 17,188,077 13,112,883
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 200
MIXED 0 0 0 73 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,794 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 72 0
SORGHUM 194,224 115,643 909 2,991,649 497,639
SOYBEANS 1,326,243 1,750,621 1,693,288 30,766,668 39,809,289
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 4,109 2,160
WHEAT 407,476 295,540 472,327 11,710,512 14,286,086
Total 2,808,017 2,807,298 2,729,972 62,666,768 67,716,897
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher yesterday as new buying entered the pit despite big world supplies and low world prices. The weekly export inspections report released yesterday and showed improved shipments, but export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 584, 576, and 568 March, with resistance at 607, 613, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 587, 580, and 570 March, with resistance at 611, 619, and 626 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 679, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 689, 699, and 706 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on apparent profit taking, but trends remain up on the daily and weekly charts. USDA cut ending stocks estimates for Long Grain and All Rice by 1.0 million tons on increased export demand. Ending stocks were lowered by one million tons. No big changes were noted for the world estimates. However, the overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1879, 1913, and 2007 March. Support is at 1845, 1829, and 1819 March and resistance is at 1919, 1932, and 1944 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday after making new lows for the move last week in response to the WASDE reports with an increase of 10 million bushels in the ending stocks estimates. Oats were a little higher end remained in a trading range. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this weeke3nd but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 414 and 410 March. Support is at 426, 423, and 420 March, and resistance is at 437, 445, and 448 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 372, 365, and 361 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher after making new lows last week in response to the USDA estimates. USDA left Brazil production estimates very high at 156 million tons and cut US export demand to push US ending stocks above 300 million bushels. The trade reacted and followed through on Friday. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1180, 1168, and 1152 March, and resistance is at 1207, 1223, and 1228 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 335.00 and 312.00 March. Support is at 341.00, 338.00, and 335.00 March, and resistance is at 359.00, 366.00, and 370.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4620, 4520, a6nd 4490 March, with resistance at 4860, 4920, and 4980 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was a little higher with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 578.00, 572.00, and 566.00 March, with resistance at 604.00, 615.00, and 625.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3870, 3850, and 3790 April, with resistance at 3950, 3990, and 4050 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 69 Mar 160 Mar
100 Mar
80 Mar

March
64 Mar 170 Mar 110 Mar 75 Mar

April
57 May 170 May 102 May 68 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 865.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 865.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 837.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 812.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 872.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 872.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 845.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 820.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 870.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 740.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,950 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 263.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7635)

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