Softs Report 02/09/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher again yesterday in response tpo a reduction in ending stocks estimates from USDA. USDA found increased demand to lower ending stocks to 280 million bales from 290 million bales before. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The charts indicate that trends turned up in the second half of last week. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.53 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9320 March. Support is at 87.00, 86.00, and 84.90 March, with resistance of 89.50, 90.10 and 90.70 March.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
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2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Jan Feb
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 11.21 13.75 10.23 10.23
Harvested 10.26 7.29 7.06 7.06
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 820 953 845 845
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 3.15 4.05 4.25 4.25
Production 17.52 14.47 12.43 12.43
Imports 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 20.68 18.52 16.69 16.69
Domestic Use 2.55 2.05 1.90 1.75
Exports, Total 14.48 12.77 12.10 12.30
Use, Total 17.03 14.82 14.00 14.05
Unaccounted 2/ -0.40 -0.55 -0.21 -0.16
Ending Stocks 4.05 4.25 2.90 2.80
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 91.4 84.8 76.0 77.0
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WASDE – 645 – 18 February 2024

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2023/24 Proj.
World
Jan 83.22 113.18 43.05 112.43 43.05 -0.41 84.38
Feb 82.97 112.82 42.88 112.46 42.87 -0.36 83.70
World Less China
Jan 45.81 85.68 31.55 75.93 42.96 -0.41 44.57
Feb 45.56 85.32 30.88 75.46 42.82 -0.36 43.84
United States
Jan 4.25 12.43 0.01 1.90 12.10 -0.21 2.90
Feb 4.25 12.43 0.01 1.75 12.30 -0.16 2.80
Total Foreign
Jan 78.97 100.75 43.05 110.53 30.95 -0.20 81.48
Feb 78.72 100.39 42.87 110.71 30.57 -0.20 80.90
Major Exporters 4/
Jan 30.14 57.73 2.04 32.82 26.52 -0.20 30.78
Feb 29.89 57.45 1.74 32.82 26.07 -0.20 30.39
Major Importers 8/
Jan 45.87 39.54 38.47 73.80 2.62 0.00 47.45
Feb 45.87 39.54 38.60 74.04 2.68 0.00 47.29
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WASDE – 645 – 28 February 2024

DJ On-Call Cotton – Feb 8
As of Feb 2. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Mar 24 17,801 21,209 -3,408 9,941 14,045 -4,104
May 24 17,086 16,318 768 3,081 3,188 -107
Jul 24 20,329 18,990 1,339 3,301 2,963 338
Oct 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 10,625 8,199 2,426 31,415 32,540 -1,125
Mar 25 848 572 276 1,321 1,217 104
May 25 613 613 0 860 353 507
Jul 25 563 431 132 16 4 12
Dec 25 542 542 0 5,092 4,682 410
Mar 26 132 88 44 0 0 0
Total 68,539 66,962 1,577 55,027 58,992 -3,965
Open Open Change
Int Int
Mar 24 80,491 85,985 -5,494
May 24 77,097 67,287 9,810
Jul 24 59,325 52,305 7,020
Oct 24 55 65 -10
Dec 24 36,734 32,741 3,993
Mar 25 3,555 3,644 -89
May 25 648 589 59
Jul 25 649 404 245
Dec 25 270 178 92
Mar 26 0 0 0
Total 258,824 243,198 15,626

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower yesterday in response to the USDA production estimates. USDA estimated production at 19.8 million boxes for lower Florida, much less than recent estimates but still well above a year ago.. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil until a sharp rally came to the market. That is lower Florida, much less than recent estimates but still well above a year and the rslly came an end yesterday. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 370.00, 359.00, and 354.00 March, with resistance at 405.00, 409.00, and 415.00 March.

Orange Production Down 1 Percent from January Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is
2.76 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but
up 11 percent from the 2022-2023 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 19.8 million boxes (891,000 tons), is down 3 percent from the
previous forecast but up 25 percent from last season’s final utilization. In
Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at
6.80 million boxes (306,000 tons), down 9 percent from the previous forecast
but up 11 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (585,000 tons), is unchanged from the
previous forecast but up 35 percent from last season’s final utilization.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower despite a lack of offer from producers as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue. The Dollar was a little higher yesterday and remains in an uptrend. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is improving for the best crop production. Reports indicate that logistical problems at ports remain to delay shipments from Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.289 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 181.62 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 185.00, 182.00, and 179.00 March, and resistance is at 192.00, 185.00 and 197.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3060, 2990, and 2920 March, with resistance at 3250, 3290, and 3320 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again and the trends remain sideways on the daily charts. Reports indicate that logistical problems continue to plague Sugar shipments from Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Brazil ports are very congested with shipments of Corn and Soybeans, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. ICE NY said that `02 notices were poted against March Sugar 126 contracts today.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2260 March and resistance is at 2440, 2460, and 2600 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 636.00, 632.00, and 612.00 March, with resistance at 675.00, 680.00, and 686.00 March.

Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use – States and United States: 2022 and 2023
—————————————————————————————————-
Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:———————————————————————
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023
—————————————————————————————————-
: 1,000 acres —– tons —– — 1,000 tons —
For sugar :
Florida ………………….: 386.0 391.0 44.5 44.5 17,177 17,400
Louisiana 2/ ……………..: 474.0 484.0 32.1 28.5 15,215 13,794
Texas 2/ …………………: 30.9 16.2 22.6 22.7 698 368
United States …………….: 890.9 891.2 37.1 35.4 33,090 31,562
For seed :
Florida ………………….: 15.9 16.6 47.4 49.8 754 827
Louisiana 2/ ……………..: 23.1 24.6 35.5 32.4 820 797
Texas 2/ …………………: 0.3 2.6 24.6 24.7 7 64
United States …………….: 39.3 43.8 40.2 38.5 1,581 1,688
For sugar and seed :
Florida ………………….: 401.9 407.6 44.6 44.7 17,931 18,227
Louisiana 2/ ……………..: 497.1 508.6 32.3 28.7 16,035 14,591
Texas 2/ …………………: 31.2 18.8 22.6 23.0 705 432
United States …………….: 930.2 935.0 37.3 35.6 34,671 33,250
—————————————————————————————————-
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates are carried forward from an earlier estimate.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Jan Feb
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1705 1820 1843 1843
Production 2/ 9157 9250 9391 9352
Beet Sugar 5155 5187 5407 5327
Cane Sugar 4002 4063 3985 4024
Florida 1934 1985 2037 2045
Louisiana 1944 2001 1904 1935
Texas 124 76 44 44
Imports 3646 3614 3310 3326
TRQ 3/ 1579 1862 1613 1612
Other Program 4/ 298 141 200 200
Non-program 1769 1611 1497 1514
Mexico 1379 1156 922 799
High-tier tariff/other 390 455 575 715
Total Supply 14508 14685 14544 14520
Exports 29 82 160 160
Deliveries 12578 12589 12630 12555
Food 12470 12473 12525 12450
Other 5/ 107 116 105 105
Miscellaneous 81 171 0 0
Total Use 12688 12843 12790 12715
Ending Stocks 1820 1843 1754 1805
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 14.3 13.7 14.2
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Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2022/23 Est.
Jan 964 5224 285 4627 1011 835
Feb 964 5224 285 4627 1011 835
2023/24 Proj.
Jan 835 5016 511 4648 814 900
Feb 835 4875 547 4648 709 900
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WASDE – 645 – 17 February 2024

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were sharply higher again yesterday and price trends remain up on the daily and weekly charts. Futures have rallied sharply for the past month. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.148 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 5450, 5330, and 5230 March, with resistance at 5870, 5930, and 5990 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4350, 4300, and 4200 March, with resistance at 4700, 4760, and 4820 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322