Grains Report 02/09/2024

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Feb 8
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD===================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
23/24 22/23 21/22 : 23/24 22/23 21/22 : 23/24 22/23 21/22
Soybeans 315.0 264.0 274.0 :170.57 171.96 154.22 : 398.21 378.06 360.41
Brazil na na na :100.00 95.51 79.06 : 156.00 162.00 130.50
Argentina na na na : 4.60 4.19 2.86 : 50.00 25.00 43.90
China na na na : 0.10 0.09 0.10 : 20.84 20.28 16.40
Soyoil 1,577 1,602 1,991 : 11.52 11.64 12.32 : 61.89 59.18 59.27
Corn 2,172 1,360 1,377 :200.82 180.99 206.64 : 1,233 1,156 1,216
China na na na : 0.02 0.01 0.00 : 288.84 277.20 272.55
Argentina na na na : 41.00 24.00 34.69 : 55.00 35.00 49.50
S.Africa na na na : 3.40 3.70 3.65 : 16.80 17.10 16.14
Cotton 2.80 4.25 4.05 : 42.87 36.96 43.19 : 112.82 116.26 114.49
All Wheat 658 570 674 :210.69 220.17 202.77 : 785.74 789.17 780.05
China na na na : 0.90 0.95 0.88 : 136.59 137.72 136.95
European
Union na na na : 36.50 35.08 31.93 : 134.00 134.19 138.16
Canada na na na : 24.00 25.59 15.12 : 31.95 34.34 22.42
Argentina na na na : 10.50 3.66 16.00 : 15.50 12.55 22.15
Australia na na na : 19.50 31.82 27.51 : 25.50 40.55 36.24
Russia na na na : 51.00 47.50 33.00 : 91.00 92.00 75.16
Ukraine na na na : 15.00 17.12 18.84 : 23.40 21.50 33.01
Sorghum 22.0 24.0 47.0 : na na na : na na na
Barley 77.0 66.0 37.0 : na na na : na na na
Oats 39.0 35.0 33.0 : na na na : na na na
Rice 42.5 30.3 39.7 : 51.62 54.28 56.90 : 513.74 512.96 513.10

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and
how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (million bushels)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA January
Corn 2,172.0 2,134 2,065-2,212 2,162
Soybeans 315.0 282 245-312 280
Wheat 658.0 649 623-673 648
***
World 2023-24 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA January
Corn 322.1 324.0 317.0-327.1 325.2
Soybeans 116.0 112.9 109.0-115.0 114.6
Wheat 259.4 260.1 257.0-262.0 260.0
***
Brazil Production (million metric tons)
2023-24
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA January
Corn 124.0 124.3 121.0-127.0 127.0
Soybeans 156.0 153.0 148.0-157.5 157.0
Argentina Production (million metric tons)
2023-24
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA January
Corn 55.0 55.7 55.0-57.0 55.0
Soybeans 50.0 50.8 50.0-52.0 50.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday on big world supplies and low world prices. The weekly export sales report released last week was not strong and the weaker sales are due to strong competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 584, 576, and 568 March, with resistance at 607, 613, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 597, 587, and 580 March, with resistance at 634, 641, and 647 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 679, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 706, 713, and 720 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and trends remain up again on the daily charts. USDA cut ending stocks estimates for Long Grain and All Rice by 1.0 million tons on increased export demand. No big changes were noted for the world estimates. However, the overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1879, 1913, and 2007 March. Support is at 1829, 1819, and 1801 March and resistance is at 1869, 1876, and 1888 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower and made new lows for the move in response to the WASDE reports with an increase of 10 million bushels in the ending stocks estimates. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this weeke3nd but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. Oats were higher in range trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 429, 426, and 423 March, and resistance is at 445, 448, and 452 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 372, 365, and 361 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans was a little higher and Soybean Meal were lower in response to the USDA estimates, but Soybean Oil was higher. USDA left Brazil production estimates very high at 156 million tons and cut US export demand to push US ending stocks above 300 million bushels. The trade reacted, then had second thoughts so prices were able to recover. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1162 and 1136 March. Support is at 1180, 1168, and 1152 March, and resistance is at 1207, 1223, and 1228 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 344.00, 341.00, and 338.00 March, and resistance is at 366.00, 370.00, and 373.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 4520, 4490, a6nd 4450 March, with resistance at 4860, 4920, and 4980 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and on ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 578.00, 572.00, and 566.00 March, with resistance at 604.00, 615.00, and 625.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3750, and 3720 April, with resistance at 3910, 3950, and 3990 April.

DJ Malaysia Feb. 1-10 Palm-Oil Exports Fell 12.2% on Month, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the February 1-10 period are estimated to have fallen 12.2% on month to 306,432 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
February 1-10 January 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 110,566 77,955
RBD Palm Oil 30,540 18,300
RBD Palm Stearin 21,635 18,860
Crude Palm Oil 78,265 84,220
Total* 306,432 349,075
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 69 Mar 160 Mar
100 Mar
80 Mar

March
64 Mar 170 Mar 110 Mar 75 Mar

April
57 May 170 May 102 May 68 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 865.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 865.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun8 835.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 810.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 872.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 872.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 842.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 817.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 870.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 737.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,970 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 262.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7625)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322