About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments: Cotton closed higher last week on speculator buying tied to another week of strong and signs of a robust US economy. No important changes are expected in the WASDE reports that will be released later this week. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The charts indicate that trends turned up in the second half of last week Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.50 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9320 March. Support is at 86.00, 84.90, and 83.10 March, with resistance of 87.40, 88.10 and 88.80 March.

General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday as some long liquidation hit the pit after the big rally late last week. The moves implies that the long liquidation that had forced prices lower had come to a dramatic end. Prices have been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 370.00, 359.00, and 354.00 March, with resistance at 392.00, 403.00, and 409.00 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed lower on the strength in the US Dollar as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue. London was lower again on an increase of Robusta offers into the cash and futures markets. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, but it looks like Vietnamese producers could be finally letting some Coffee filter into the market. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil weather remains uneven but is improving for the best crop production. Reports indicate that logistical problems at ports remain to delay shipments from Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.281 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 180.92 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 198.00 and 210.00 March. Support is at 190.00, 188.00, and 185.00 March, and resistance is at 197.00, 200.00 and 201.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3140, 3060, and 2990 March, with resistance at 3320, 3380, and 3410 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed lower on the strength in the US Dollar and the trends remain sideways on the daily charts. Reports indicate that logistical problems continue to plague Sugar shipments from Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Brazil ports are very congested with shipments of Corn and Soybeans, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2330, 2310, and 2260 March and resistance is at 2430, 2450, and 2500 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 646.00, 636.00, and 632.00 March, with resistance at 675.00, 680.00, and 686.00 March.

General Comments: Both markets were sharply higher yesterday and price trends remain up on the daily and weekly charts. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.169 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 4830, 4680, and 4600 March, with resistance at 5000, 5030, and 5060 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3900, 3800, and 3760 March, with resistance at 5230, 5260, and 5280 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322